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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Oct 23, 2024
Tesla’s Margins, Free Cash Flow Swell in Third Quarter
Image: Tesla has returned to a free cash flow rich entity. Tesla reported solid third quarter results that showed a business that is getting back on track. Not only did production and deliveries increase nicely on a year-over-year basis, but the firm’s margin improvement is a sight to see and comes in the wake of lowered vehicle selling prices. Tesla also showcased its cash generation capacity in the quarter, with free cash flow more than tripling. We like Tesla’s net-cash-rich balance sheet, its free cash flow generation, and its ability to drive growth, but we fall short of including shares in any newsletter portfolio.
Oct 23, 2024
Starbucks Posts Lower Than Expected Performance, Turnaround “Will Take Time”
Image: Starbucks’ shares have been volatile the past couple years. Starbucks suspended its guidance for the full year 2025, given new CEO Brian Niccol and “the current state of the business.” That said, the company increased its quarterly cash dividend to $0.61 per share from $0.57 per share, which equates to a 2.5% forward estimated dividend yield, pointing to optimism regarding the long term. We’re cautious on Starbucks’ shares, as even the executive team noted that a turnaround “will take time.” Our fair value estimate stands at $85 per share, below where shares are trading at the time of this writing.
Oct 19, 2024
Netflix Continues to Deliver on Content and Engagement, Free Cash Flow Robust
Image: Netflix’s shares are trading at all-time highs. We liked Netflix’s revenue and operating income improvement in the third quarter, as well as its outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024 and 2025. Netflix is delivering with respect to content and customer engagement, and we like the fact that the firm continues to generate strong free cash flow. Netflix continues to build its advertising business, with ads membership up 35% on a sequential basis. Looking to the fourth quarter, Netflix has a nice slate of content, including Squid Game S2, the Jake Paul/Mike Tyson fight, and two NFL games on Christmas day, which Netflix expects to drive paid net additions higher in the quarter than in its most recently reported third quarter. The high end of our fair value estimate range for Netflix is $867 per share.
Oct 17, 2024
Kinder Morgan’s Dividend Is Much Healthier These Days
Image: Kinder Morgan’s shares have done quite well thanks to improved free cash flow performance. Year-to-date Kinder Morgan's free cash flow, as measured by cash flow from operations less all capital spending, totaled $2.27 billion, higher than the $1.92 billion it paid in cash dividends during the same time period. Years ago, Kinder Morgan’s capital spending and cash dividends paid were significantly higher than cash flow from operations, necessitating a dividend cut. Things are much different these days, as Kinder Morgan’s free cash flow covered cash dividends paid by $353 million during the first nine months of the year. Though the firm retains a large net debt position, Kinder Morgan’s dividend is much healthier than it was years ago. Shares yield 4.6% at the time of this writing.
Oct 16, 2024
Goldman Sachs Beats Third Quarter Estimates, Puts Up Strong Economic Returns
Image: Goldman Sachs’ shares have done well the past couple years. Goldman Sachs continues to generate value for shareholders. Annualized return on average common shareholder equity [ROE] was 10.4% for the third quarter of 2024 and 12.0% for the first nine months of 2024. We liked Goldman’s revenue growth in the quarter, and the company continues to put up double-digit economic returns. Shares trade at 1.6x book value, so we’re not viewing them as cheap at this time. Shares yield 2.3%.
Oct 15, 2024
UnitedHealth Remains a Free Cash Flow Generating Powerhouse
Image: UnitedHealth’s shares have done well the past few years, but a gloomy outlook for 2025 has prompted a selloff. Looking to 2024, UnitedHealth Group lowered the high end of its guidance to the range of $27.50-$27.75 compared to $27.50-$28.00 previously due in part to higher than expected business disruption impacts for the affected Change Healthcare services. On the conference call, the company noted that its “2025 adjusted profit could be $30 per share (Seeking Alpha),” which was below consensus of $31.17 per share for the year. Though its medical care ratio advanced in the quarter and it continues to navigate the impact of cyberattack and direct response costs, we’re huge fans of UnitedHealth’s robust free cash flow generation, and we still like shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.
Oct 15, 2024
JPMorgan Continues to Generate Value for Shareholders
Image Source: Hakan Dahlstrom. During the third quarter, JPMorgan's book value per share was up 15%, to $115.15, while tangible book value per share grew 18%, to $96.42. Shares of JPMorgan aren’t cheap trading at north of 1.9x book value. JPMorgan is an important bellwether for the global economy, and its third quarter results spoke of continued strength and high returns on capital. We include Financial Select SPDR in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio to capture diversification benefits from the largest financial institutions. Shares of JPM yield approximately 2.3% at the time of this writing.
Oct 10, 2024
Domino’s Pizza Remains an Attractive Long-Term Story
Image: Domino’s core values. Looking to 2024, Domino’s expects approximately 6% annual global retail sales growth and approximately 8% annual income from operations growth as it seeks to expand global net store count by 800 to 850. For 2025, Domino’s expects a similar pace of expansion for annual global retail sales growth and annual income from operations growth. Its long-term guidance (2026-2028) calls for 7%+ annual global retail sales growth and 8%+ annual income from operations growth. The company ended the quarter with $4.98 billion in total debt and $189.1 million in cash and cash equivalents. Though Domino’s has a lofty net debt position, we like its long-term growth story, and the company remains a core idea in the portfolio of the Best Ideas Newsletter.
Sep 30, 2024
Carnival Corp. Experiencing Strong Demand
Image: Carnival’s shares have traded sideways since the beginning of 2024. We like the demand momentum behind Carnival’s business, but its balance sheet keeps us on the sidelines. The company ended the quarter with $1.5 billion in cash and $28.9 billion in long-term debt. Fitch rates the company’s debt as non-investment grade with a BB credit rating. S&P rates its debt at BB and Moody’s B1. The company’s economic returns aren’t that much greater than its cost of capital either, even during good times. Carnival’s shares have been roughly flat year-to-date.
Sep 23, 2024
GE Vernova Is a Great Clean Energy Idea
Image: GE Vernova has performed well since it was spun out of GE. GE Vernova is one of our favorite clean energy ideas, and its financials speak to continued strength. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $243 per share.


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