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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Feb 6, 2014
Nelson Says Be Prepared: Almost Everything Points to a Return to 1670 on the S&P 500 by the End of 2014
We don’t think you should over-react, but we do think you should expect further market weakness. The markets could correct by another 5% this year, and we wouldn’t think anything of it. Share prices are simply ahead of their respective valuations.
Feb 3, 2014
PotashCorp’s 2014 Earnings Will Decline Due to Pricing Pressure
We think the most valuable fundamental quality of a company is pricing power, and it remains elusive for PotashCorp.
Feb 3, 2014
Previewing Yum! Brands’ Fourth Quarter Results
We think management’s progress on restoring its KFC brand name in China will be the key focus for investors in Yum! Brands’ fourth-quarter earnings release.
Jan 31, 2014
Mattel’s Results Fail to Impress; Awaiting Hasbro’s Earnings in February
Mattel’s performance was disappointing, but we don’t think it spells the end of physical toy demand. We’re waiting for Hasbro’s report in February.
Jan 31, 2014
Visa Boasts One of the Best Business Models on the Market Today
There are few business models that are better than Visa’s.
Jan 29, 2014
Surveying the Outlooks of a Few Industrial Companies
Let’s take a look at how the backbone of the industrial economy is performing.
Jan 28, 2014
5 Steps to Understand Why Apple Is Cheap; Shares Continue to Be Unfairly Weighed Down By ‘Palm Pilot’, “Moto Razr” and “Blackberry’ Memories
For Apple to be fairly valued at its after-hours price, normalized earnings per share would have to be assumed to be about $20 per annum, half of Apple’s current annual earnings of $40+ per share. We think normalized earnings at the iPad maker are much higher than what the market is giving it credit for, especially considering the promising ideas in its product pipeline. We’ve raised our fair value estimate of Apple to $680 per share thanks to the time value associated with rolling our model one year forward, offset in part by a slightly lower growth trajectory following fiscal 2014 first quarter results (ending December 28, 2013). We continue to like shares.
Jan 24, 2014
Starbucks’ Investors Are Forgetting That Coffee Costs Can Go Back Up; Shares Lack Valuation Support
We loved Starbucks’ fiscal first-quarter results, but shares do not consider the risk of a spike in long-term coffee prices, nor do they consider a normalizing of traffic growth trends.
Jan 24, 2014
SEC Proposes Barring the Chinese Units of the Big 4 Accounting Firms for 6 Months; A Washington-Beijing Scuffle; Neither Firm-Specific, Nor Is It "New" News
Though such a topic makes for great headlines, it is neither fundamental/material to our intrinsic value estimates nor does it imply any wrongdoing by any firm. We don't view this as "new" news.
Jan 24, 2014
Icahn's In-depth Letter to Apple Still Does Not Remove Time Horizon
We believe Apple's shares have valuation upside, but as we have outlined before, activist investor Carl Icahn's proposal to force Apple to buy back stock over a certain time period ("during fiscal 2014") as opposed to under a certain price (our fair value estimate) is imprudent. We encourage Icahn to further revise his proposal. Additionally, we think Icahn's valuation process is too simplistic, and we encourage him to disclose a more rigorous valuation assessment of the firm.



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