Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 12, 2019

Asset Light, Free-Cash-Flow Generating Powerhouse Bookings Holding (Priceline) Remains One of Our Favorite Ideas
Image shown: Booking Holdings' equity has been a strong performer the past few years.Booking Holdings fills an important void in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio as it provides exposure to the broader global economy, while albeit cyclical, continues to hold up despite myriad threats. Bookings Holdings’ asset-light business model translates to tremendous free cash flow generation, and its balance sheet is net-cash rich, two considerations that provide a very strong foundation for our estimate of its intrinsic value, which stands at ~$2,150 (shares are trading at ~$1,900 at the time of this writing). The company does not pay a dividend.

Nov 11, 2019

High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio Holding BP Sees Cash Flow Profile Improvements Ahead
Image Source: BP plc – Third quarter 2019 earnings infographic. If you may wish to add the High Yield Dividend Newsletter to your membership, please click here.We continue to like BP as a holding in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. Rising upstream production levels, a quality downstream footprint, and reduced Gulf of Mexico oil spill-related payments will go a long way in enhancing BP’s cash flow position. Raw energy resource prices remained subdued around the globe, but that isn’t stopping BP from fully covering its organic capital expenditures and dividend payments with underlying cash flows. We would like to see BP’s gearing ratios move lower, which is the stated goal.

Nov 8, 2019

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending November 8
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Nov 7, 2019

Nucor Is One of the Best in a Bad Business
Image Source: Nucor Corporation - June 2019 IR Presentation. We aren’t adding Nucor to any newsletter portfolio at this time given the ongoing synchronized slowdown in global economic growth, especially on the industrial side of things, as shares of NUE already trade near our fair value estimate (and risks appeared skewed to the downside). Nucor is one of the best in the business, but business can be just downright terrible during a recession or a slow growth economy given existing overseas competition and declining North American demand in the event auto sales, construction activity, and other economic activities slow down. Geopolitical and trade events will continue to loom large over the steel industry going forward.

Nov 6, 2019

Procter & Gamble Appears Overvalued
Image Shown: Shares of Procter & Gamble have been on an epic run since mid-2018, and we think shares have gotten ahead of themselves here.Consumer staples giant Procter & Gamble is a solid company that generates sizable and consistent free cash flows. However, in our view, shares of PG have gotten way ahead of themselves due to a “flight to quality” that has seen the market bid up P&G’s share price from the low $70s in April 2018 to almost $120 as of this writing. Shares of PG now yield 2.5% as of this writing and trade well above the top end of our fair value estimate range of $101 per share. Please note P&G has paid out a dividend for 129 consecutive years and the company has increased its payout over the past 63 consecutive years, earning it the coveted status of ‘Dividend Aristocrat’.

Nov 1, 2019

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending November 1
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Oct 31, 2019

General Motors’ Cost Savings Plan Still Intact
Image Shown: Shares of General Motors moved higher after its third quarter 2019 earnings report as investors looked past the UAW strike and towards the future, particularly ongoing cost structure improvements. Our fair value estimate for GM stands at $48 per share, and we continue to like the automaker in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. General Motors’ Dividend Cushion ratio of 3.5x provides for solid payout coverage at a time of trade war volatility, and its Cruise division offers plenty of long-term upside as one of the leaders in the autonomous driving space.

Oct 30, 2019

Johnson & Johnson Announces New Test Results That Reveal No Traces of Asbestos in Johnson Baby Powder Products
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – February 2019 CAGNY IR Presentation. Major retailers including Walmart, Rite Aid Corp, and CVS Health pulled Johnson Baby Powder products from their shelves after the announcement by the FDA. Johnson & Johnson is hoping that by fighting back it can preserve its brand power, revenues, and position on retailer’s shelves once it’s all said and done. We will continue to monitor this situation going forward and would like to note that Johnson & Johnson, potential legal liabilities aside, raised its full-year guidance for 2019 multiple times this year highlighting the underlying demand for its vast array of healthcare-related offerings. That supports a nice free cash flow growth trajectory.

Oct 30, 2019

Caterpillar Misses Estimates and Revises Guidance Downwards
Image Source: Caterpillar Inc – Third quarter 2019 IR presentation. Should the global economy show signs of stabilizing, particularly as it relates to industrial activity, Caterpillar would appear relatively cheap at ~$141 per share as of the end of the October 29 trading session. Recent signs have not been promising. Exports out of South Korea, a barometer for the global economy, continue to plummet while macroeconomic readings in the EU and North America are showing signs of a major slowdown materializing as we speak (particularly in the Eurozone, but that appears to be spreading to the US economy as well). China’s economy continues to feel the heat from the US-China trade war. The low end of our fair value estimate range stands at $125 per share of CAT, meaning that under more pessimistic assumptions, Caterpillar appears fairly valued as of this writing.

Oct 28, 2019

High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio Holdings AT&T and Philip Morris International Continue to Shine
Image Shown: AT&T continues to surge higher this year as shares of T converge towards their intrinsic value, a process supported by recent activist investor activity directed towards the company. If you may wish to add the High Yield Dividend Newsletter to your membership, please click here.We continue to like the resurgence in AT&T's shares of late. The company is rapidly converging to our $40 per share fair value estimate, and as the company divests assets and pursues deleveraging, its dividend growth profile is enhanced. Shares already yield an enticing 5.3%, too. Philip Morris has rallied considerably since it broke deal talks with Altria, and we believe the company has a relatively lower business risk profile than Altria. Both Philip Morris and Altria have Dividend Cushion ratios below the 1.25x threshold, or GOOD threshold, but given more positive overall trends at Philip Morris, we prefer the company over Altria at this time. Shares of Philip Morris yield a lofty 5.7% at the time of this writing.