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May 3, 2019
Energy Earnings Roundup
Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation -- First quarter 2019 earnings presentation. May 2, 2019
Mortgage REITs Floundering, More Reports
In alphabetical order by company name: NLY, CAKE, CLX, CVS, EL, PBI, PSA, QCOM, O, SMG. Apr 30, 2019
Top-Weighted Visa Leaps to Mid-$160s, More Earnings Reports
Image: Visa has been the top-weighted idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter for as long as we can remember. In December 2017, when we migrated to weighting ranges for ideas in the newsletter portfolio, the company's "weight" was 8.6%. The image above shows its performance relative to the S&P 500 since then. Source (pdf). Apr 26, 2019
Facebook Was Textbook, Intel Still About Fairly Valued After Weakness
Image: Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Facebook's stock has advanced 56% since it bottomed in December. This is yet another textbook execution of the Valuentum Buying Index, a strong breakout of the downtrend on a significantly undervalued stock. See also the example with Apple on page 241 in Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. Apr 23, 2019
Morgan Stanley’s Lumpy Performance Calls Into Question Durability of Earnings Stream
Image Source: reynermedia. If Morgan Stanley’s activities can collapse that quickly, as they did during the fourth-quarter of 2018 when the market swooned, it really calls into question the durability of the earnings stream for all of the global players. Apr 20, 2019
Taking a Fresh Look at Goldman Sachs
Image Source: Goldman Sachs 1Q19 Earnings Slides. After taking a fresh look at our valuation assumptions in the context that Goldman hasn’t really proven that it can earn above the cost of capital through the economic cycle, we have lowered our fair value estimate to $200 per share. Apr 18, 2019
Raising Our Fair Value Estimate for Bank of America
Image shown: Valuentum's fair value estimates for its banks and money center coverage. We've raised our fair value estimate of Bank of America.The only thing not to like with Bank of America is that banks are cyclical and the economy is overdue for a downturn. Everything else is going right at Bank of America. We have raised our fair value estimate for Bank of America to $35 per share. Apr 17, 2019
J&J Beats Low Expectations, Revises Guidance Upward
Image Source: J&J. Johnson & Johnson issued updated guidance for 2019 that called for stronger adjusted sales and EPS growth than previously expected, which along with earnings that beat low expectations was enough to send shares up over 1% on the day, April 16. Apr 17, 2019
Citigroup Remains a Sub-scale US Bank
Image Source: Matt Buck. Even if Citigroup achieves improved return-on-capital targets, it would remain a sub-scale US bank from a nationwide perspective, and it remains overly reliant on Corporate and Investment banking, which is an overtraded and competitive field globally. Apr 16, 2019
Disney Pushes Deeper into the Streaming Market While Cooling Off on Future Star Wars Movie Releases
Entertainment giant Disney has been milking the Star Wars franchise for all its worth since acquiring Lucasfilms back in 2012. Now fans are starting to shun the franchise’s blockbuster movie releases and that has management considering how to properly leverage this top tier asset going forward.
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