Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 1, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of September 1
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Aug 25, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 25
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Aug 18, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 18
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Aug 14, 2023

Apple's Looming ‘Watch X’ Likely a Game Changer in Smartwatches
Image Source: Wiyre Media. Apple is expected to do a refresh of its Apple Watch this year, but the changes won’t be as significant to draw many to upgrade. However, as we look out to fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025, exciting things could happen. According to a report from Bloomberg, the “Watch X,” marking the 10th anniversary of the rollout of the first Apple Watch, is targeted to include a blood-pressure monitoring tool, among other upgrades. Not only do we think a blood-pressure monitoring tool will drive considerable adoption from many that do not have a smartwatch, but it could also drive a huge market share shift to the device from Samsung and Alphabet’s Fitbit.

Aug 9, 2023

Will Crude Oil Prices Hit $100 Again?
Image: US field production of crude oil is approaching record highs. Source: EIA. The next few weeks will likely see a rally in energy equities, but we note that U.S. field production of crude oil is approaching all-time highs and will likely eclipse all-time highs this year, given the pace of monthly year-over-year increases. With shale oil abundant and production still advancing nicely, the rise in crude oil prices this summer is largely of the speculative variety, in our view. We could see a run in black gold to the triple digits, but both supply and production remain healthy, and if crude oil prices reach the $100+ mark, we don’t see them staying there for long. We think investors are rotating out of this year’s big winners, a healthy consolidation, and we won’t be making any changes to the newsletter portfolios on account of what we believe is a temporary rotation into energy equities.

Jul 28, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 28
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Jul 27, 2023

McDonald’s, Chipotle, Domino’s Second-Quarter 2023 Results Solid
Image: Shares of McDonald’s, Chipotle and Domino’s have done well since the beginning of 2020, with Chipotle leading the pack. McDonald’s and Chipotle aren’t going away anytime soon, and we’re not at all discouraged by their respective second-quarter 2023 same-store-sales performance; CMG’s performance gave the market pause, but the sell-off in the burrito maker’s shares was mostly profit-taking (after a huge run up so far in 2023). McDonald’s is a perfect stock for the current inflationary environment, in our view, while Chipotle remains one of the best unit growth stories in the restaurant arena. Another one of our favorites, Domino’s has recently broken through its downtrend. We don’t expect to make any major changes to our fair value estimates of MCD, CMG, or DPZ, and we continue to like shares of all three in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Jul 24, 2023

Philip Morris’ Cash-Flow Dividend Coverage Resilient, ZYN Performance Impressive
Image Source: Philip Morris. Our fair value estimate for Philip Morris stands at $105 per share, and we don’t expect to make any material changes to our valuation of the company following the quarterly report. Philip Morris’ combustible tobacco revenue continues to be strengthened by pricing power, while its smoke-free momentum, particularly with ZYN, continues. Though adjusted financial measures continue to look good at Philip Morris, more and more we’re paying closer attention to reported diluted earnings per share, which will face material pressure in 2023 ($5.36-$5.45 per share) compared to $5.81 per share in 2022. The company’s free cash flow remains robust, but its total debt levels are not ideal, in our view. Philip Morris is trading just shy of $100 with a dividend yield of ~5.2% at the time of this writing.

Jul 14, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 14
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Jul 12, 2023

Pet Insurer Trupanion’s Business Facing Numerous Challenges; Short Interest at 35%+
Image: Trupanion may be growing its top line like a weed, but its operating losses have been growing, too. Image Source: Trupanion 10-K. The insurance business is a tough one, and medical pet insurance may be even more difficult. A number of dynamics from adverse selection to conflicts of interest to lack of bargaining power within the industry’s structure have plagued Trupanion’s financial performance for years, with the company accumulating significant net losses since inception. We’re huge fans of Trupanion’s moaty network of clients and veterinarians as well as its tremendous top-line growth potential, but veterinarians continue to capture the industry’s economic rents, in our view, to the detriment of Trupanion’s shareholders. Unit economics have not been adding up at Trupanion either, and free cash flow has been meager at best for a very long time. As veterinarian costs continue to rise and the firm receives push back on proposed rate increases, Trupanion’s net losses may continue to mount, and even under optimistic assumptions, Trupanion’s shares could be considered rich.