Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Dec 13, 2020

7 Hidden Dividend Aristocrats in Industrials
In the world of dividend growth investing, when a company hits the mark of raising its dividend for more than 25 consecutive years, it garners the coveted title of a Dividend Aristocrat. The accomplishment is so rare that only 65 companies in the S&P 500 have achieved this commendable feat--just 13%. Our strategic focus in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is to identify companies with attractive valuations, respectable dividend yields and strong expected dividend growth prospects for the next 25 years. This perspective is embedded within the construct of our proprietary and forward-looking Dividend Cushion ratio that can be found in each company’s Dividend Report. In this article, however, let’s cover seven hidden and relatively overlooked Dividend Aristocrats from our Industrials coverage that have promising prospects to continue raising their dividends for many more years to come (three on the list have already raised their dividends for more than 60 consecutive years). The valuations of these seven companies may be a little stretched for our taste (at the time of this writing), but we think these stocks are worth keeping on your radar given their resilient business models, shareholder-friendly management teams, notable competitive advantages, and praiseworthy status as Dividend Aristocrats. Each of the companies’ 16-page Stock Report and Dividend Report can be downloaded following their respective profiles.

Dec 12, 2020

Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Holding Disney Surges to All-Time Highs
Image Shown: The reach of the Disney+ video streaming service continues to grow as The Walt Disney Company keeps expanding the service into new markets. Image Source: The Walt Disney Company – December 2020 Investor Day Presentation. We continue to be big fans of The Walt Disney Company and include shares of DIS in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Back when Disney’s stock price plummeted this past March, we stuck with our capital appreciation thesis and did not panic. Since then, shares of DIS have staged an impressive comeback and are currently trading near all-time highs. Shares of Disney are up ~22% year-to-date as of this writing, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) which is up ~14% during this period (before taking dividend considerations into account, which does not change this picture much). Our optimistic view towards Disney is underpinned by the company’s bright long-term growth outlook. Though it will take a few years for Disney’s video streaming business to become a profit generating machine, the market is clearly excited about how this segment could potentially drive Disney’s future free cash flows meaningful higher over the long haul. The high end of our updated fair value estimate range is $184 per share.

Dec 11, 2020

AT&T’s Outlook Is Getting Brighter
Image Shown: An overview of AT&T Inc’s capital allocation priorities over the coming years and a snapshot of its financial position at the end of September 2020. Image Source: AT&T Inc – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. The rollout of 5G wireless packages in the US combined with expected growth at its video streaming business has significantly improved AT&T’s outlook during the past few months. We include shares of AT&T in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, and as of this writing, shares of T yield ~6.6%. Headwinds caused by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic weighed negatively on AT&T’s financial and operational performance in 2020, though the company remains on track to generate enormous amounts of free cash flow this year. AT&T currently expects to generate $26.0 billion or more in free cash flow in 2020, a forecast that the firm reiterated on December 8. The company has guided its dividend cash-flow payout ratio (dividend obligations divided by free cash flow) to come in near the high 50s% area this year. Please note that back in April 2020, AT&T expected its dividend cash-flow payout ratio in 2020 would be in the 60s% range, but its outlook was negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Things are starting to turn around in part due to the recent successes AT&T has had at its video streaming business after things got off to a slow start.

Dec 10, 2020

Alphabet Continues to Move Higher, Supported By Its Promising Long-Term Growth Runway
Image Shown: Alphabet Inc Class C shares have surged higher year-to-date as of this writing. We see room for additional capital appreciation upside. Alphabet is one of our favorite companies, and we include Alphabet Class C shares as a top weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Shares of GOOG have staged an impressive recovery since March 2020, when the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sent equity markets spiraling lower, and we still see room for significant capital appreciation upside. Our favorite companies are firms with pristine balance sheets (Alphabet had ~$118.7 billion in net cash, inclusive of short-term debt and not including long-term ‘non-marketable investments,’ at the end of September 2020), high-quality cash flow profiles (Alphabet generated over $25.6 billion in free cash flow during the first nine months of 2020), and impressive long-term growth runways (ideally) supported by secular growth tailwinds (allowing for multiple “winners” in the space). We continue to be big fans of Alphabet as the firm checks all three boxes!

Dec 9, 2020

3 Speculative Stocks for Your Radar
Image Source: Mark Morgan. Etsy operates the online marketplace Etsy.com, which connects creative entrepreneurs with consumers looking to find unique crafts and goods. Stitch Fix was founded in 2011 and provides customers with personalized shipments ('Fixes') of apparel, shoes and other items that are hand-picked by the company's stylists. Uber Tech first started in 2010 to make it easy for people to get a ride from point A to point B with the simple touch of a button. All three are breaking out to new highs, and we wanted to put them on the radar of risk-seeking investors.

Dec 8, 2020

Cantel Medical Surges Higher
Image Shown: Shares of Cantel Medical Corp popped higher during normal trading hours December 8 after the firm’s latest earnings report indicated its recovery was well underway. On December 8, Cantel Medical Corp reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended October 31, 2020) that beat both top- and bottom-line consensus estimates. Furthermore, Cantel Medical’s $297 million in GAAP revenues last fiscal quarter exceeded the top end of its forecast that was published on October 22, which had been raised above the revenue guidance range management put forward during the firm’s fourth quarter of fiscal 2020 earnings call that was held on September 17. We published a note back on December 2 highlighting that “we think Cantel Medical is one for the radar of a risk-seeking investor” on the back of its improving near-term revenue outlook. In that article, we mentioned that it was crucial for Cantel Medical to show signs that its margins were moving in the right direction after deteriorating over the past couple of fiscal years. During its latest earnings report, Cantel Medical’s financial performance clearly indicated that a recovery was well underway.

Dec 8, 2020

Visa Is a Great Company
Image Shown: Visa Inc’s operations are on the rebound, though meaningful headwinds remain. Image Source: Visa Inc – Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Earnings for Fiscal 2020 IR Presentation. We recently took a fresh look at our valuation of Visa, and we raised the company’s fair value estimate to $219 per share. The high end of Visa’s current fair value estimate range sits at $263 per share, indicating there is room for substantial capital appreciation upside under a more bullish/upside scenario (note that upside and and downside scenarios help inform each company's fair value estimate range). We continue to be big fans of Visa, and the firm is not only one of our top ideas in the financial-technology/payment-processing space that includes innovators in blockchain and cryptocurrency, but it is also one of our top ideas in our entire coverage universe.

Dec 7, 2020

Dollar General Continues to Impress
Image Shown: Shares of Dollar General Corporation have surged higher over the past year. On December 3, Dollar General Corp reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended October 30, 2020) that saw its same-store sales grow by over 12% year-over-year, which when combined with its steadily growing store count, saw the firm’s GAAP revenues jump higher by over 17% year-over-year. Dollar General has made great strides in upgrading its digital operations, expanding its store base, adding new products to its stores, and improving its cost structure during the past several fiscal years. These past initiatives are filtering down to Dollar General’s bottom line as its diluted GAAP EPS was up 63% year-over-year in the fiscal third quarter. We continue to be big fans of Dollar General and include shares of DG in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Dec 7, 2020

Salesforce’s Growth Story Continues
Image Shown: Salesforce Inc expects its impressive revenue growth story will continue at a brisk pace going forward. Image Source: Salesforce Inc – Company IR Presentation. On December 1, Salesforce Inc reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended October 31, 2020) that saw the Software-as-a-Service (‘SaaS’) giant beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. While Salesforce has historically focused on growing its core customer relationship management (‘CRM’) offerings, the firm more recently has been expanding into new and adjacent areas to extend its impressive growth runway. Salesforce announced it was acquiring Slack Technologies at the start of December for ~$27.7 billion in a cash-and-stock deal. This acquisition will significantly grow Salesforce’s collaboration offerings (particularly for workplace needs), an area it has had trouble expanding into in the past. Our fair value estimate for Salesforce sits at $221 per share (under our “base” case scenario) and the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $265 per share (under our “bull” case scenario).

Dec 4, 2020

DocuSign Has All the Makings of a Long-Term Winning Enterprise
Image Source: DocuSign Investor Presentation Winter 2020. DocuSign is executing well on its strategy to transform the foundation of doing business. The company’s large and under-penetrated market opportunity, essential cloud product suite that lines up favorably against the competition, accelerated billings expansion, and growing customer base with well-known brand names (which add credibility to its product offering) represent a number of key positives to the investment thesis. Though GAAP losses continue to pile up, DocuSign is free cash flow positive and sports an asset-light business model with considerable earnings leverage (as sales continue to expand at a rapid clip). DocuSign’s largely subscription-based business model offers a nice degree of visibility into future revenue trends, and its balance sheet is relatively healthy with a decent net cash position. DocuSign has all the makings of a long-term winning enterprise, as long as it avoids any security/execution miscues that could tarnish its brand and/or derail trust among its customers, impairing future growth. We expect to raise our fair value estimate of DocuSign upon its next report update and point to the high end of our existing fair value estimate range of $295 per share for bullish investors.