Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Apr 23, 2021

P&G and Kimberly-Clark Tell Two Different Stories
Image Shown: Since the beginning of 2019, on a price-only basis, Procter & Gamble (orange) has handily outpaced the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF while Kimberly-Clark (turquoise) has stumbled. Procter & Gamble’s shares have been on an incredible run the past couple years, with the company driving strong organic revenue and earnings per share growth. Kimberly-Clark, on the other hand, has been executing poorly in a market environment where one might think it should be excelling. Both of these stocks are dividend growth giants, with P&G boasting a 65-year dividend growth track record and Kimberly-Clark stringing together 49 consecutive annual dividend increases. Both also have strong Dividend Cushion ratios of 1.8 at this time, suggesting resilient dividend coverage on a go-forward basis. That said, investors will have to pay up for P&G’s dividend strength and operational tailwinds, as shares are a bit pricey based on our fair value estimate range, and even Kimberly-Clark’s valuation is only slightly more reasonable after its sharp drop following the 2021 earnings guidance cut. We expect to make a few tweaks to our valuation models following their respective calendar first-quarter 2021 reports, but if we had to pick between these two dividend growth behemoths, P&G looks like the better relative play. Shares of P&G yield ~2.6%, while shares of Kimberly-Clark yield 3.3%.

Apr 23, 2021

Lockheed Martin Boosts Guidance
Image Source: Lockheed Martin Corporation – First Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. Lockheed Martin Corp, maker of missile systems, space offerings, radar systems, jet fighters (including the F-35), and other advanced weaponry, will play a leading role in keeping Western armed forces (and the militaries of Western allies) ahead of rising geopolitical tensions. We include the defense contractor as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and shares of LMT yield ~2.7% as of this writing. Lockheed Martin’s dividend growth trajectory is impressive, its free cash flow generating abilities are stellar, and it has an enormous backlog which provides a high degree of visibility as it concerns its future cash flow generating abilities.

Apr 22, 2021

Good News from High Yielding AT&T
Image Source: AT&T. We liked AT&T’s first-quarter results and outlook for 2021 that calls for free cash flow generation to be well in excess of expected cash dividends paid for the year. Investors should be aware of its hefty net debt position, but with a ~7% dividend yield, the company may be hard to pass up for high yield dividend focused investors. We plan to make some tweaks to our valuation model following this report, but our fair value estimate of $34 per share remains unchanged at this time.

Apr 21, 2021

Vertex and CRISPR Therapeutics Partnership Update
Image: Vertex Pharma is co-developing gene-based therapy for sickle cell disease (SCD) and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia (TDT). CTX001 may offer a potential cure for people that have SCD and TDT.On April 20, Vertex Pharma and CRISPR Therapeutics issued a press release that noted “the companies have amended their collaboration agreement to develop, manufacture and commercialize CTX001, an investigational CRISPR/Cas9-based gene editing therapy that is being developed as a potentially curative therapy for sickle cell disease (SCD) and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (TDT).” The development is a win-win for both Vertex Pharma and CRISPR Therapeutics and reinforces our positive view towards both company’s capital appreciation upside. We prefer Vertex Pharma as our speculative biotech play in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio given its more resilient financials and established commercial portfolio. Note that with early stage biotech companies such as CRISPR Therapeutics, investors are taking outsized risks and could lose all their capital should future endeavors not pan out as expected.

Apr 20, 2021

Banks Holding Up Well, Some Feel Pain from Archegos Capital Collapse
Image Shown: Bank of America Corporation has an optimistic view towards the ongoing US economic recovery. Image Source: Bank of America Corporation – First Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. Earnings season is now underway! In this article, we cover the performance of two large US banks and the problems facing one major European bank in light of losses stemming from Archegos Capital Management blowing up. Large reserve releases last quarter--due to the US economy holding up better than expected during the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic--played an outsized role in bolstering the financial performance of key US banks after these institutions recorded large reserve builds in 2020. Net interest margins (‘NIM’) continue to face headwinds from the low interest rate environment, though noninterest related income (such as income generated from wealth management, investing banking, and other activities) at several banks has come in strong (aided by favorable capital market conditions).

Apr 19, 2021

UnitedHealth Group Raises Guidance After Stellar Earnings Report
Image Shown: We added UnitedHealth Group Inc to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio back on November 27, 2020. Since then, shares of UNH have surged higher, though we are primarily interested in the company’s immense dividend growth potential. We continue to be big fans of UnitedHealth Group and like the company as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Shares of UNH have surged towards the upper end of our fair value estimate range over the past couple of months. When we roll forward our enterprise cash flow model for the new year, we expect UnitedHealth Group’s fair value estimate to increase meaningfully on the back of its improving cash flow growth outlook. As of this writing, shares of UNH yield ~1.3% and its Dividend Cushion ratio stands north of 3.0, highlighting the tremendous strength of its forward-looking dividend coverage.

Apr 16, 2021

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week April 16
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Apr 15, 2021

MPT Is Dead, Long Live Active Stock Management!
In this video, Valuentum's President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA, explains the importance of active stock management for long-term investors. Active stock selection is achievable for individual investors, necessary for advisors to differentiate their practice and achieve client goals in a low-yield environment, and indispensable for pensions and large institutions that have indefinite lives.

Apr 13, 2021

SPACs Are Good for Markets, Not SPAC-tacular for Investors
Image: Performance of the Defiance NextGen SPAC IPO ETF (SPAK), where “a 60% weighting is applied to IPO companies derived from SPACs and 40% is allocated to common stock of newly listed Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (“SPACs”), ex-warrants” has been roughly flat since inception in October 2020. According to some estimates, there were 248 Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC) that went public in 2020, raising more than $80 billion (up sixfold from a record high set in 2019). SPACs reached heightened levels of excitement in early February, but the performance of the Defiance NextGen SPAC IPO ETF (SPAK) has been roughly flat since it began trading October 2020. Most of what investors have to go on when considering a SPAC is a thorough assessment of the management team, as SPACs go public as a shell (“blank check”) company with no underlying operating business. Some forward-leaning, “out of the box” management teams may be worth rolling the dice on, but for the most part, the great many of the SPACs out there probably aren’t worth your time. Though we like the idea of more investor choice once SPACs take operations public (and new companies are listed), we’re not getting lured into the SPAC IPO boom. It’s not our style. Even diversified exposure to the SPAK ETF doesn’t sound great. We’ll be patient and evaluate the companies SPACs bring public through traditional equity analysis to see if opportunities present themselves. Prudence and care, first, always.

Apr 12, 2021

How Many Stocks to Achieve Diversification?
Image: GameStop’s shares are falling like a rock after hitting euphoric levels in the mid-$400s earlier this year. Our fair value estimate stands below $10 per share.  Day trading GameStop is gambling. Resist the urge. The 60/40 stock bond portfolio may have cost investors a bundle during the past 30 years relative to active stock managers charging 2% per annum, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t diversify appropriately within the equity component of your asset mix. Use common sense, and don’t get too aggressive on your favorite ideas either. We generally like to limit new ideas to 8%-10% of the newsletter portfolios at “cost” and generally don’t like them to run higher than 15% of the newsletter portfolio after appreciation. From my perspective, only ultra-sophisticated investors should ever consider shorting, and please don’t gamble too aggressively on options. Know the unlimited loss potential of selling options contracts. Options is not a fun game to lose. Investing is a long game--and know the difference between diversification across your favorite ideas and “diworsification” by buying overpriced assets. Adding pipeline MLPs to your portfolio in mid-2015 may have smoothed your returns the past five years, but only by hurting them. Leave gambling to the quants. See through the illusion of “factor” investing. Be smart, and don’t get stuck thinking “inside the box.” Markets are inefficient, unless you think GameStop was appropriately priced at both $180 and $350 on the same day (March 10) on no news. Finally, unless you have a few friends that can lend you a few billion in a pinch, don’t ever forget the cardinal rule--and even if you have a few billionaires next store: Always leave yourself outs. Stocks for the long run.