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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Oct 20, 2019
Johnson & Johnson’s Talc Problems Hit Another Bump
Image Shown: Johnson & Johnson’s embattled ‘Baby Care’ segment performed poorly during the third quarter of 2019. Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – IR Presentation. Johnson & Johnson was back in the news Friday October 18 when the company announced it was voluntarily recalling “a single lot” of its embattled Johnson’s Baby Powder product in the US due to alleged asbestos contamination risks. The US Food and Drug Administration tested a single bottle from this lot, according to Johnson & Johnson, with the federal regulator noting that sub-trace levels (no greater than 0.00002%) of chrysotile asbestos had been detected in the bottle. Johnson & Johnson plans to vigorously contest these allegations and maintains that its talc products don’t contain asbestos.
Oct 20, 2019
Goldman Sachs' Return Metrics Remain Subpar
Image Source: Goldman Sachs 3Q2019 Earnings Presentation. Our overall take on Goldman Sachs is that, given the lower amount of leverage the bank is able to employ under the current regulatory regime, it is very difficult for it to replicate the mid-to-high teens return on equity it put up in the go-go years leading up to the Global Financial Crisis. Goldman Sachs is now a bank holding company and is trying to add deposits to bring funding costs down toward those of their money-center peers. This is a difficult ask and a long road, though we note it has certainly made progress bidding up for deposits.
Oct 18, 2019
Buffett Favorite, Bank of America a Bargain
Image Source: Bank of America Earnings Presentation. “If Bank of America can continue to narrow the return on capital gap to JPMorgan, we expect its shares will grow into our $35 fair value estimate.” -- Matthew Warren
Oct 18, 2019
Philip Morris International: Free Cash Flow King With Upside Potential
Image Shown: Philip Morris International's Marlboro cigarette brand remains very popular worldwide. Pricing power is essential to offsetting declines in traditional cigarette sales volumes as the company positions itself for alternative tobacco products to become a larger part of its revenue streams. Image Source: Philip Morris International – Third quarter 2019 earnings presentation. We continue to like Philip Morris International as a quality high-yield play with good dividend coverage in a low interest rate environment. Strong pricing power enables the firm to offset sales declines of its traditional cigarette volumes as the company waits for its alternative smoking offerings (like IQOS) to represent a bigger chunk of company-wide sales. Please note that foreign currency headwinds remain significant, but manageable. As of this writing, Philip Morris International yields 5.8%.
Oct 17, 2019
Honeywell’s Aerospace Division Its Crown Jewel
Image Source: 3Q 2019 Earnings Release. We’re huge fans of Honeywell. The company’s Aero operations are its crown jewel, and while Boeing is facing some troubles these days, we don’t expect much impact on Honeywell at all. In fact, we expect commercial aerospace to remain strong, even in the face of broader industrial weakness. The risks to the company’s HBT business could be starting to mount given some concerns in commercial real estate, but management isn’t really seeing any signs of yet, pointing to only moderating growth in 2020. The SPS division, while a headwind, probably won’t be a factor next year, but it could bounce back as inventories are cleared from the channel.
Oct 17, 2019
Citigroup Lags Peers in Key Metrics
Image Source: Matt Buck. Citigroup remains well capitalized with a 11.6% Common Equity Tier 1 Capital Ratio, but there isn’t room to lever up. Management has recently expressed less optimism about reaching its previously stated goal of reaching a 13.5% ROTCE in 2020, and the market consensus has them coming up short of the same goal. Operating leverage has helped the bank improve this metric by several percentage points in the past few years, but it appears that the cost-cutting road is getting increasingly difficult. Now more revenue dependent in improving its return metric, this leaves the bank also counting on the 11-year economic upcycle to continue. It is therefore unsurprising that this bank trades right near its tangible book value of $69.03 per share. Our fair value estimate remains $71 per share.
Oct 16, 2019
JPMorgan Continues to Go from Strength to Strength
Image Source: Gideon Benari. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon admitted plainly that the current benign credit losses are better than through-the-cycle averages during the conference call. He also acknowledged that revenues will come under pressure when the down cycle eventually hits. Until that time, JPMorgan is going from strength to strength, and this bank is clearly well positioned to take market share from weaker hands when the downcycle ultimately arrives. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $125 per share.
Oct 15, 2019
Johnson & Johnson Raises Full-Year Guidance Yet Again
Mounting legal liabilities have been weighing negatively against Johnson & Johnson and its stock price over the past year as investors fret about the size of these potential settlements/judgements. We see the firm’s latest quarterly performance and guidance increase for 2019 as validation of the strength of Johnson & Johnson’s broad-based healthcare business model. Once the market gets a better idea of Johnson & Johnson’s total potential legal liabilities, shares could begin to converge towards their intrinsic value given the underlying strength in the firm’s businesses. Our fair value estimate for shares of JNJ stands at ~$150 per share.
Oct 14, 2019
Economic Commentary: Robots, Value Trap, and Politics on the Markets
Valuentum sat down for the latest installment of its periodic economic commentary, and the team tackled a wide array of topics, from robots on Wall Street, to President of Investment Research Brian Nelson’s new book Value Trap, to political influence on the markets and boyond. Let’s set the stage with a prompt from a recent Bloomberg article, “The Master of Robots…Coming for Wall Street...
Oct 11, 2019
Apple Surges Higher!
We continue to like Apple and think shares will continue advancing toward the upper end of our fair value estimate range ($260+). Recent technical strength at Apple is possibly a sign that investors are beginning to price in the very positive tailwind the tech giant’s ‘Services’ segment represents in terms of both sales and margin upside (and the positive effect that has on Apple’s expected future free cash flows).


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