Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 4, 2020

Visa Reports Earnings and Mildly Adjusts Guidance
Image Shown: Shares of top weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio Visa Inc continues to outperform the S&P 500. On January 30, Visa reported earnings for the first quarter of its fiscal 2020 (period ended December 31, 2019). While shares sold off on the news, V has since recovered some lost ground and it’s important to keep in mind Visa is up ~42% over the past year as of this writing while the S&P 500 (SPY) was up just ~19% during this period. We continue to like Visa as a top weighted holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and given the combination of the firm’s strong long-term technical and fundamental performance (on a historical basis) along with its bright outlook going forward, shares of V could test the upper end of our fair value estimate range which sits at $228 per share.

Jan 31, 2020

Microsoft Continues to Outperform After a Great Earnings Report
Image Source: Microsoft Corporation – Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 IR PowerPoint Presentation. We continue to be impressed with Microsoft’s fundamental performance, and that’s clearly being reflected in its technical performance as the market prices in an ever-optimistic outlook. It won’t be until Microsoft’s technicals turn against the company that we would consider removing shares of MSFT from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. We like to let our winners run, within reason.

Jan 31, 2020

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending January 31
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Jan 30, 2020

AT&T Continues to Follow Through With Its Mission
Image Source: AT&T Inc – Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Earnings Presentation. One of our holdings in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, AT&T, reported full-year and fourth quarter results for 2019 on January 29. Shares of T sold off modestly on the mixed report (adjusted non-GAAP EPS beat consensus estimates but revenues fell short of expectations), and now shares of T yield ~5.6% as of this writing. We continue to like what we see in AT&T as management is delivering on major value creating initiatives: deleveraging, margin expansion, and ultimately free cash flow growth. More information on the High Yield Dividend Newsletter >>

Jan 29, 2020

Starbucks Reports Earnings, Coronavirus to Hurt China Sales
Image Shown: How Starbucks Corporation views its competitive strengths. Image Source: Starbucks – December 2019 IR Presentation. Starbucks is trading at the upper end of our fair value range estimate, and given the headwinds facing the company in China (in terms of the competitive pressures from Luckin and the ongoing coronavirus overbreak) we see shares as fully valued as of this writing with room for meaningful downside. Its large net debt load is another concern. Shares of SBUX are priced for perfection, but exogenous headwinds could end up derailing its near-term growth trajectory.

Jan 29, 2020

Why We Like Lockheed Martin as a Defensive Dividend Growth Play
Image Source: Lockheed Martin Corporation – Third Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Presentation. On January 13, 2020, we announced we were making some major changes to our newsletter portfolios, and that included adding major defense contractor Lockheed Martin Corporation to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio with a modest 2.5%-3.5% weighting. Lockheed Martin is the lead contractor on the massive F-35 fighter jet program, has an expansive slate of weapon systems offerings (including the Javelin and Paragon systems), owns helicopter company Sikorsky (which sells aircraft for military, governmental, and civilian purposes), and offers a wide range of other defense related products and services (radar, sensors, etc.). The company is also the lead contractor on NASA’s Orion project, which is being designed for deep space exploration.

Jan 28, 2020

Johnson & Johnson Closes Out Fiscal 2019 With a Strong Fourth Quarter Report and Promising Fiscal 2020 Guidance
Image Shown: A look at some of Johnson & Johnson’s best selling products. Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2019 IR Presentation. Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Johnson & Johnson reported fourth quarter and full-year earnings for fiscal 2019 on January 22. We liked what we saw as the company proved its fiscal 2019 wasn’t as bad as first feared, and furthermore, that Johnson & Johnson’s outlook remains bright as indicated by management’s guidance for fiscal 2020.

Jan 28, 2020

Intel Roars Higher
Image Shown: Intel Corporation, a top weighted holding in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and a medium weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, posted a tremendous fourth quarter report for fiscal 2019 on January 23. Shares of INTC marched meaningfully higher on January 24. Image Source: Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings IR Presentation. A top weighted holding in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and medium weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter, Intel Corp posted blowout earnings on January 23. Full year revenue for fiscal 2019 hit a record of $72.0 billion on a GAAP basis, up 2% year-over-year, while GAAP diluted EPS rose by 5% to $4.71 (on a non-GAAP basis, diluted EPS was up 6% year-over-year, hitting $4.87). Intel beat both top- and bottom-line consensus estimates and guided for a strong fiscal 2020. Shares of INTC now yield ~1.9% on a forward-looking basis as of this writing after management pushed through a 5% sequential dividend increase in conjunction with the record earnings report.

Jan 23, 2020

Why *NOW* Do You Care About Boeing’s Stock?
Image Source: Robert Sullivan. In no, way shape or form should you *now* be interested in Boeing’s stock. Let’s explain.

Jan 23, 2020

Why Natural Gas Prices are So Low and Will Likely Remain So for Some Time
Image Source: Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation – November 2019 IR Presentation. Domestic natural gas strip prices in the US are trading at rock bottom levels as of this writing, and we expect the pain will only continue. There are many reasons why natural gas prices in the US are quite low right now including surging associated production (gas supplies produced alongside oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids) from unconventional upstream plays where natural gas is viewed more so as a nuisance than a marketable product given the liquids-oriented economics of those plays, surging non-associated production (natural gas supplies are the only product) out of Appalachia over the past decade (the growth in natural gas production in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia has been astounding due to the Marcellus and Utica shale plays), and the lack of the kind of serious weather-related demand this winter season (such as a very cold winter in North America, especially in the Midwest and East Coast) that can quickly drain flush storage facilities.