Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 15, 2023

Our Reports on Stocks in the Discretionary Spending Industry
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Our reports on stocks in the Discretionary Spending industry can be found in this article: BBY, CBRL, CMG, DIS, DG, DLTR, DPZ, EL, F, GM, HAS, HD, LOW, MCD, NFLX, NKE, SBUX, TSLA, YUM, DKS, TJX, ROST, WHR, KMX, AZO, RL, ULTA, LEG, GPC, VFC, CTAS, WSM.

Jan 13, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 13
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Jan 12, 2023

Taiwan Semiconductor’s Shares May Have Bottomed
Image: We’re liking the technical bottom forming in Taiwan Semiconductor’s shares. Image Source: TradingView. Everyone has their eyes on Taiwan Semiconductor these days. The firm is the center of attention with respect to Sino-American relations, and the risk that China may invade Taiwan has added a degree of uncertainty to shares that is almost impossible to quantify within general valuation frameworks. Headquartered in Hsinchu, Taiwan, the world’s largest pure-play semiconductor foundry is a key bellwether for an area within technology that has faced considerable pressure during the past year. However, from our perspective, shares of Taiwan Semiconductor look to have carved out what we believe to be a technical bottom, and the high end of our fair value estimate range of $90 speaks to more upside potential.

Jan 10, 2023

Dow Laggard Walgreens Boots Alliance Yields North of 5%; Has Raised Dividend for 47 Consecutive Years
Image: Walgreens Boots Alliance’s shares have been pummeled during 2022. Image Source: TradingView. Key metrics, including free cash flow and adjusted earnings per share, aren’t presently moving in the right direction at Walgreens Boots Alliance, but free cash flow generation remains in excess of cash dividends paid. The company, and its predecessor firm, Walgreen Co., have paid 360 straight quarters of dividends over the past 90 years, too, raising the payout in each of the past 47 years. It’s absolutely amazing for a company to have such a storied history and reliable dividend track record, but it’s also worth emphasizing Walgreens Alliance Boots is far from a simple story these days. Still, with a 5%+ forward estimated dividend yield, this component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is worth a close look.

Jan 5, 2023

The Fed ‘Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop’ Until Labor Market Feels More Pain
Image: Prices for private label brands at Aldi are considerably lower than those of branded products. The consumer staples sector, however, remains fully-priced with a 21+ forward earnings multiple, and many constituents hold large net debt positions. We believe the sticking point for the Fed is not groceries or gasoline prices, but rather the labor markets, which remain very strong, despite layoffs. Image Source: Valuentum. We maintain our view that markets will remain challenged for at least the first quarter of 2023, and we expect the S&P 500 to bottom around 3,400 based purely on a technical evaluation of the ongoing downtrend. The labor market remains too strong for the Fed to stop rate hikes, as the primary concern for the Fed is not what inflation will do this year, but rather whether it will spike again in 2024. To truly stomp out inflation, the Fed needs to witness further weakening in the labor markets, as consumers have found ways to trade down to offset grocery inflation and as gas prices at the pump ease. We’re never happy to hear of layoffs, but an unemployment rate of 4.5%-5% may be the range required for the Fed to stop hiking, in our view. The last thing the Fed wants is to stop hiking too early, only for inflation to come roaring back in the quarters that follow the pause. The Fed is not thinking about year-over-year inflation numbers for 2023, in our view, but rather policies that will ensure that inflation rates of the past 12-18 months do not return in 2024-2025. They are playing the long-term game.

Jan 3, 2023

Our Reports on Stocks in the Technology Giants Industry
Our reports on stocks in the Technology Giants industry can be found in this article. Reports include META, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, CSCO, V, MA, PYPL, INTC, ORCL, QCOM, ADI, IBM, ADBE, NVDA, CRM, AMD, AVGO, BABA, BKNG, BIDU, TSM, TXN, EBAY, ADP, MU, KFY, MAN, KLAC, LRCX, AMAT.

Dec 30, 2022

5 Top Stock Ideas for 2023!
With 2022 almost in the rear-view mirror, investors are expecting continued weakness into 2023. Millionaires are as bearish as they have been since the beginning of 2008, and we all know what happened during that year. Inflationary pressures coupled with substantially weakened consumer spending as a result of the collapse in the price of cryptocurrencies, traditional asset allocation models such as the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio, and ultra-high yielding stocks with payouts north of 9%-10% have most investors worried about what might be ahead in 2023. Still, investors have reason to be hopeful, in our view. The labor markets continue to hold up well, and the rate hikes that have pummeled equity, bond and real estate prices also act as future dry powder for the Fed to stimulate markets. At any time, the Fed can reverse its contractionary course. In 2023, we should start to see year-over-year increases in inflation slow, too. In this article, let’s talk our top 5 stock ideas for 2023!

Dec 29, 2022

Dividend Growth Giant Lockheed Martin’s Share Price Surges 35%+ in 2022
Image: Lockheed Martin’s shares have been bolstered by a robust share buyback program during the fourth quarter of 2022. Though we still expect shares to be resilient, some technical consolidation may be necessary. Image Source: TradingView. Lockheed Martin’s aggressive buybacks during the fourth quarter of 2022 may have driven its price up to lofty levels, but we continue to like shares in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio heading into 2023. The company’s free cash flow generation remains robust, its backlog has firmed up, and geopolitical tensions around the globe continue to intensify. The company’s equity yields ~2.5% at the time of this writing.

Dec 27, 2022

Verizon’s Big Share-Price Drop Opens Opportunity for 6.8% Dividend Yield
Image: Verizon’s shares have been punished, but this has opened an opportunity for a 6.8% dividend yield. Image Source: TradingView. With Verizon’s dividend hike to $0.6525 per quarter in September this year, 2022 has marked the 16th consecutive year of a dividend increase. Shares yield ~6.8% at the time of this writing. Though we wouldn’t be looking to add Verizon’s shares to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio or simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio at this time, it may be worth a look for high yield and income investors. Its big share-price drop has made its dividend a head-turner.

Dec 23, 2022

FedEx’s Revenue Falls, Operating Income Tumbles in Fiscal Second Quarter
Image: FedEx’s forecast for fiscal 2023 earnings have almost been halved since it gave guidance in June of this calendar year. Image Source: FedEx.We thought FedEx would be able to offset weakness in its business with yield and cost savings initiatives, but things have deteriorated even further than what we had been expecting. Revenue faced considerable pressure during the company’s second-quarter fiscal 2023 results, while operating income tumbled more than 60% in the period. The firm has now cut its fiscal 2023 earnings per share forecast practically in half since it gave updated guidance in June of calendar 2022, and its financial targets for fiscal 2025 may be in jeopardy. We’re no longer evaluating FedEx for inclusion in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, despite shares yielding ~2.6% at the time of this writing.