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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Dec 20, 2022
Stock Market Locked in Technical Downtrend; Millionaires Expect More Pain in 2023
Image: The stock market has been locked in a downtrend through all of 2022, and the latest bull trap has spoiled the Santa Claus rally. 2023 may be an equally rough year. This market just doesn’t want to go higher in the near term, and the latest bull trap wasn’t encouraging at all. We think long term investors should stay the course, but it is looking more and more like we won’t see a stock market bottom until sometime in 2023. Santa brought coal this year.
Dec 14, 2022
Moderna’s Personalized Cancer Vaccine (PCV) Could Be a Game-Changer When Combined with Merck’s KEYTRUDA
Image: Moderna’s therapeutics pipeline continues to advance, and the company recently received positive news regarding its personalized cancer vaccine (PCV), ID # mRNA-4157, when combined with Merck’s KEYTRUDA. Image Source: Moderna. Moderna and Merck have revealed what could be a big breakthrough with respect to investigational cancer treatment, but we remind investors that the news is a Phase 2b study, and there is still a meaningful probability that the Phase 3 trial for the immunotherapy may be unsuccessful. Still, the Phase 2b results for the PCV-KEYTRUDA combination showed an impressive 44% reduction in the risk of recurrence or death in patients with late-stage melanoma, and the adverse effects from the combined PCV-KEYTRUDA therapy occurred in just 14.4% of patients, which was not terribly different than those receiving KEYTRUDA alone. There are a plethora of players dabbling in mRNA vaccine technology these days, and we remain excited about its future potential to improve patient outcomes, as much as we are about CRISPR gene-editing technology.
Dec 13, 2022
Oracle Puts Up Huge Revenue Growth Number in Second Quarter Fiscal 2023 Results
Image: Trailing four-quarter free cash flow trends at Oracle are strong but lumpy. Image Source: Oracle. On December 12, Oracle Corporation reported better than expected second quarter fiscal 2023 results for the three months ended November 30. Total revenue advanced 18% in the quarter on a year-over-year basis, leaping 25% in constant currency, thanks in part to strong performance at its infrastructure and application cloud businesses. Non-GAAP operating income increased 5%--and 12% in constant currency--and its non-GAAP operating margin was 41% in the period. Fiscal second-quarter non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.21 beat the consensus estimate, despite foreign currency headwinds. We liked that we saw in the quarterly results, and we’ll be sticking with the company as one of our best ideas.
Dec 12, 2022
American Tower Ups Dividend Payout 6%+ But Shares Not Immune to REIT Sector Weakness
Image Source: American Tower. Cell tower operator American Tower raised its dividend more than 6% from its last payout in October, and while we like the payout growth momentum, we’re taking note of weakening AFFO and free cash flow trends. The REIT’s net debt position takes on greater prominence in the current rising interest rate environment, too, and its forward estimated dividend yield stands at just ~2.9%, about in line with traditional near-term rates on certificates of deposits. We’re watching deteriorating REIT economics closely.
Dec 10, 2022
Honeywell's ESG Efforts May Benefit from More Board Diversity and Moving Beyond Its Asbestos-Saddled Past
Image: Honeywell continues to put together a long resume of ESG highlights. Image Source: Honeywell’s Environmental, Social and Governance Report. Honeywell’s 100+ page Environmental Social and Governance Report for 2022 is a tremendous resource that indicates Honeywell means business when it comes to ESG-related efforts. The firm has a lot of work to do to get to carbon neutral by 2035, and we’d like to see a more diverse board and perhaps more reasonable compensation at the top, but the trajectory for ESG considerations at Honeywell is moving in the right direction. Prior asbestos-related issues weigh heavily on our ESG assessment of Honeywell, but we expect continued improvement across all areas of ESG in the years to come at the firm.
Dec 9, 2022
We Win Some, We Lose Some: Best Idea Exxon Mobil Expects Huge Cash Flow Growth in Coming Years
Image: Exxon Mobil has been one of the biggest contributors of alpha to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio during 2022. Image: Valuentum. It would have been difficult to sit out energy during 2022 and have a good year. Though the areas of dividend growth and high-yield dividend investing have held up better than more speculative areas, energy has been a key source of alpha across our newsletter suite this year. We added Exxon Mobil mid last year, in June 2021, to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, and shares have rocketed more than 60% higher during 2022 alone. We continue to like shares of Exxon Mobil and peg a per-share fair value estimate of $122 on them.
Dec 8, 2022
Korn Ferry Beats Expectations in Second Quarter
Image: Korn Ferry’s shares still look cheap by our estimates. Image Source: Korn Ferry. Businesses around the world are dealing with new challenges in a post COVID-19 world, and global consulting firm Korn Ferry is working hard to build solutions for them. We continue to include Korn Ferry as an idea in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and remain huge fans of its enormous free cash flow generation and its pristine balance sheet that holds a material net cash position. We’re sticking with our $75 per-share fair value estimate, which implies upside potential to where shares are trading.
Dec 7, 2022
REITs May Continue to Face Pressure
Image: The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%. Equity and mortgage REITs have been under considerable pressure during 2022. Institutional investors seem to be fleeing the sector, but retail investor interest still seems unusually high. We think this might be a tell-tale sign that retail investors could end up getting burned, if they haven’t been already by the terrible performance across the sector so far in 2022. Withdrawals on non-publicly traded REITs are soaring, and SL Green’s dividend cut may be the first of many in the sector to come. We only include a select few REITs across our simulated newsletter portfolios.
Dec 4, 2022
Apple iPhone Supply Disruptions Not Likely to Hurt Markets with Overall Holiday Sales Reportedly Strong
Image: Holiday sales are expected to expand ~2.5% in 2022 over very strong growth in 2021 and 2020. Image Source: Adobe. Apple's sales of the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max will come in lower than expected this holiday season due to labor unrest in Zhengzhou, but holiday sales for 2022 overall look fairly solid with Adobe Analytics estimating 2.5% growth over 2021, which, itself, was a fantastic year. A prior warning about holiday sales from Target Corp. appears to have been overblown given the sales strength witnessed during Black Friday and Cyber Monday across the retail landscape this year. It may be too early to say that the markets have definitely bottomed as economic data remains inconclusive, but holiday sales so far in 2022 and an overall resilient job market are giving investors something to cheer about in what has turned into an otherwise loathsome year.
Dec 4, 2022
Dollar General Resets Expectations; We’re Watching Free Cash Flows Closely
Image Source: Valuentum. Though comparable store sales have been consistent over the years at Dollar General, we think the concept is getting “tired” as inflation eats into its value offerings. Inventories are ballooning at the firm and internal supply chain problems will eat into earnings during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022, while the firm continues its aggressive store expansion efforts (with 1,050 new stores expected in fiscal 2023). Dollar General remains an idea in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, but it could become a source of “cash” if inventories and free cash flow generation become a bigger issue.



The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.