Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 3, 2024

Merger Mania
Image Source: Glenn Beltz. Mergers and acquisition [M&A] activity continues as the market sets new highs. Elevated borrowing costs as a result of the Fed’s aggressive rate hiking cycle in 2022 are pushing many entities to pursue all-stock transactions.

Mar 1, 2024

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of March 1
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Feb 29, 2024

3 Catalysts for Apple’s Stock
Image: Apple’s shares have done quite well since the beginning of 2023. We see three positive catalysts on the horizon for Apple. First, Apple is now shifting resources from its electric car endeavor to work on generative artificial intelligence [AI]. Though an Apple Car would have been a nice deliverable later this decade, we like the move, as it relates to future iterations of the iPhone, which will likely have varying levels of AI features. This should drive a meaningful upgrade cycle across its installed base of iPhones. Second, we think Apple’s Vision Pro is another revenue driver, and recent reports indicate that demand has been higher than expected. Third, we think the Apple Watch X, the next iteration of its wearables line-up that will likely have features to measure blood pressure adn detect sleep apnea, will also drive a lot of upgrades across its installed base, in our view.

Feb 27, 2024

Berkshire Hathaway Caps Off Strong Year of Operating Earnings Growth
Image: Berkshire’s operating earnings experienced a strong advance during 2023 from last year’s levels. On February 24, Berkshire Hathaway reported strong fourth-quarter results that capped off a year where operating earnings advanced 21% on a year-over-year basis. Warren Buffett tipped his hat to his long-time partner Charlie Munger, who passed away in November of last year, crediting him as the architect of Berkshire and himself merely in charge of the “construction crew.” There weren’t many surprises in the annual report, and Buffett made several references to areas that he has long talked about in the past, including pointing investors to operating earnings, as opposed to net income, which includes unrealized capital gains that can make reported results seem more volatile. All things considered, we liked Berkshire’s update, and we continue to like the firm as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Feb 26, 2024

Domino’s Puts Up Strong Comp in Fourth Quarter, Approves Another $1 Billion in Buybacks, Raises Dividend
Image: Domino’s free cash flow increased meaningfully in fiscal 2023. On February 26, Domino’s Pizza reported mixed fourth-quarter results, but comparable store sales came in better than expectations and the firm announced an additional $1 billion in buybacks, while it raised its dividend ~25%. We’re huge fans of Domino’s due in part to its heavily franchised business model, impressive digital initiatives, as well as its long-term unit growth prospects. The high end of our fair value estimate range of Domino’s stands at $569 per share, and we see meaningful upside from today’s price levels (~$465 per share) given the fundamental momentum at the firm.

Feb 25, 2024

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?
Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key long-term earnings growth, cash flow dynamics, and balance sheet health considerations. We remain bullish on equities for the long haul, and we think the next couple years will be incredibly strong. Our best ideas can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, and via the Exclusive publication as well as options idea generation.

Feb 23, 2024

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 23
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Feb 21, 2024

Lithium Prices Remain Volatile; Albemarle Adjusts Long-term Demand Forecast
Image: Albemarle’s shares have faced significant pressure as a result of depressed lithium prices. Albemarle’s shares have been under significant pressure of late due to volatile lithium prices, and the firm’s cash flows have faced weakness as a result. Operating cash flow dropped to ~$1.325 billion in 2023 from ~$1.91 billion in 2022, as capital spending soared. Unless lithium prices start to better reflect the underlying demand profile ahead of it, Albemarle will likely be free cash flow negative in 2024 as well. Right now, Albemarle is facing a tough road ahead with its fundamentals largely tied to lithium prices, but the firm is positioned well for a potential lithium-price rebound. Regardless, we view Albemarle as a speculative stock and one only for the most aggressive, risk-seeking investors.

Feb 21, 2024

Walmart’s Free Cash Flow Remains Robust, Buys Vizio to Boost Advertising Business
Image: Walmart’s free cash flow generation during fiscal 2024 was superb and comfortably covers its cash dividends paid. Walmart is doing a fantastic job executing on its value proposition, and the company is in a sweet spot with respect to consumer trends given the step change in prices the past few years that is causing consumers to trade down to value offerings. The firm’s comp sales are coming in better than expected, and its free cash flow generation remains well in excess of its cash dividends paid, providing ample support for further dividend hikes. Walmart will execute a 3-for-1 stock split on February 23 and will begin trading on a post-split basis February 26. Though Walmart retains a massive net debt position, perhaps its only drawback from a financial standpoint, the company is a fantastic dividend grower and perhaps one of the best considerations within the retail space these days. Shares yield ~1.4% at the time of this writing.

Feb 19, 2024

The Price-to-Earnings Ratio Demystified
Let's examine the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. The key takeaways are: 1) without using a discounted cash-flow model, the P/E ratio that should be applied to a company's future expected earnings stream can never be appropriately calculated, and by extension, 2) when investors assign an arbitrary price-to-earnings multiple to a company’s earnings (based on historical trends or industry peers or the market multiple), they are essentially making estimates for all of the drivers behind a discounted cash-flow model in one fell swoop (and sometimes hastily). As earnings for next year are often within sight and can be estimated with some confidence (though this certainly varies among firms), calculating the price-to-earnings ratio via a discounted cash-flow process, in our opinion, is of far greater importance than worrying about whether a firm will beat or miss earnings in its next fiscal year. Because the P/E ratio is a discounted cash-flow model that considers the long-term qualitative dynamics of a particular entity, cash-flow analysis remains the first and most important pillar of our Valuentum Buying Index. And finally, investors cannot ignore valuation analysis or the future. Valuation is an important driver behind stock prices, and it is based on future expectations that can only be estimated. This is just a fact of the markets.