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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Dec 9, 2019
Intel’s Resilient Free Cash Flows and Improving Outlook
Image Shown: Shares of Intel Corporation have resumed their upward climb after stumbling during the middle of 2019. We continue to like the name in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. Intel Corp is another one of our favorite companies and is included in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. After coming under fire during the middle of 2019, INTC is back on a nice upward trajectory. The top end of our fair value range estimate sits at $61 per share of INTC, indicating there’s plenty of room for Intel to run higher. Shares of INTC yield 2.2% as of this writing, and we view the company’s dividend growth trajectory as stellar (we give Intel an EXCELLENT Dividend Growth rating which is supported by its GOOD Dividend Safety rating, a product of its 2.1x Dividend Cushion ratio).
Dec 6, 2019
Dollar General Remains in Command
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Dollar General is a holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The company reported strong third-quarter results December 5 that showed better performance than rival Dollar Tree. Discount retail continues to feel the ill-effects of tariffs that are raising cost of goods sold, but Dollar General is taking the headwinds in stride.
Dec 5, 2019
Best Buy’s Rebound Continues
Image Shown: Best Buy Co Inc has staged an impressive rebound over the past few years. This rebound was aided by significant investments in its digital presence, recognizing the core markets Best Buy wanted to target, and ultimately comparable store sales growth. On November 26, Best Buy reported third quarter earnings for its fiscal 2020 (three month period ended November 2, 2019) that beat both top- and bottom-line consensus estimates. Even better, Best Buy raised its guidance for fiscal 2020, largely on the back of stronger than expected same-store sales growth. Best Buy’s update helped send shares of BBY over our fair value estimate of $76 per share, and if this outperformance is sustained, the retailer may march towards the upper end of our fair value range estimate (which currently sits at $95 per share). Shares of BBY yield 2.5% as of this writing, and we like the firm’s dividend growth prospects. However, we caution that Best Buy remains very exposed to the US-China trade war, and we don’t include shares of BBY in our newsletter portfolios in large part due to the downside risks exogenous forces impose.
Dec 4, 2019
Reflecting on Two of Our Favorite Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Holdings
As we get closer to finishing out 2019, let’s take a look at two of the big winners in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio this year: Facebook and Alphabet. What a comeback Facebook has made since the summer of 2018! On the basis of our fair value estimate, we expect the company to surpass new highs. Alphabet just hit an all-time high last month, too!
Dec 4, 2019
Cracker Barrel Doing Well Despite Industry Headwinds
Image Source: 2019 Annual Shareholder Meeting, November 21. First-quarter fiscal 2020 results at Cracker Barrel were solid, but the fiscal year is still early, and the restaurant industry backdrop for traffic isn’t as strong as it once was. That said, we expect Cracker Barrel to keep raising menu prices to drive strong comparable store sales performance, which should help the firm achieve operating-margin guidance of 9% during the fiscal year, propelling copious free cash flow generation and supporting capital-return efforts. That said, we’ll be watching traffic performance and cost pressures closely in the coming quarters, but for now, our discounted cash-flow derived fair value estimate of $168 per share stands, reflecting about 17.5x the high end of the firm’s adjusted earnings per share target during fiscal 2020. Cracker Barrel’s Dividend Cushion ratio remains a very healthy 1.5x. Shares yield 3.4% at the time of this writing, and this excludes any special dividends that shareholders have grown accustomed to during the past five years.
Dec 3, 2019
Cleveland-Cliffs Buying AK Steel Through All-Stock Transaction
Image Shown: A tale of two charts, with Cleveland-Cliffs Inc in blue and AK Steel Holding Corporation in orange, after the announcement was that that the former would acquire the latter in an all-stock deal.On December 3, Cleveland-Cliffs agreed to acquire AK Steel Holding Corporation through an all-stock deal, creating a vertically integrated producer of iron ore and steel products in the US. Cleveland-Cliffs operates three iron ore mines in Michigan and Minnesota, along with a hot briquetted iron production plant in Ohio that’s under-construction, and AK steel operates steel mills in North America along with related facilities in Western Europe.
Dec 2, 2019
McDonald’s Enters the Chicken Sandwich Wars
Image Shown: Shares of McDonald’s Corporation have pulled back over the past couple of months after an epic run during most of 2019, which we view as the market recognizing shares of MCD had gotten way ahead of themselves. McDonald’s is testing out a new crispy chicken sandwich offering in two US cities; Knoxville, Tennessee and Houston, Texas. This pilot project is expected to run through January 2020. While McDonald’s offers the ‘McChicken,’ its new chicken sandwich offering is far more substantial (the McChicken is to a chicken sandwich what the ‘McDouble’ is to a burger) and meant to compete with offerings from privately-held Chick-fil-A and Restaurant Brands' Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen. We still view shares of McDonald’s as overvalued as the top end of our fair value range estimate sits at $189 per share, and MCD trades at ~$195 per share as of this writing. Shares of McDonald’s yield 2.6% as of this writing, and while the company’s free cash flow profile is impressive, its large net debt load (~$31.7 billion as of the end of September 2019) weighs negatively on the strength of its dividend coverage.
Dec 2, 2019
Apache Comes Up Empty in Suriname, Shares Plummet
Image Source: Apache Corporation – November 2019 IR Presentation. On December 2, Apache Corp announced that its first exploration well off the coast of Suriname (a small nation in northern South America) was a dud. The Maka Central-1 well was drilled to a total depth of 6,200 meters (~20,300 feet) in Block 58 and drilling activities commenced in late-September. While the well was testing two Upper Cretaceous plays, neither play appeared to have commercial level of hydrocarbons (more information will be provided by management on this issue in the near future) so Apache opted to drill down to a total depth of 6,900 meters (~22,600 feet) to test a third Cretaceous play. This news sent shares of APA down by double-digits on December 2 as of this writing for reasons we’ll cover in this article. While shares of APA yield ~5.2% as of this writing, that payout isn’t sustainable in our view.
Nov 29, 2019
Portfolio Newsletter Holding Digital Realty Targets Secular Growth Trends to Support Dividend Growth Trajectory
Image Shown: Digital Realty Trust is one of our favorite ways to indirectly play several secular growth trends at once. The data center real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) pays out a nice dividend that’s supported by its investment grade credit ratings, a solid cash flow profile, and a promising growth trajectory.Digital Realty Trust has been a resilient performer in both the Dividend Growth Newsletter and High Yield Newsletter portfolios, and we continue to like the name. Due to the data center REIT’s impressive dividend growth profile, a product of the double-digit annual growth rate in its funds from operations (‘FFO’) since 2005, shares of DLR yield a nice ~3.6% as of this writing.
Nov 27, 2019
Holiday Scheduling
Image Source: Tim Sackton.  Hi everybody, It’s that time of year again, when family and friends come to visit, and everyone eats too much on Thanksgiving. I wanted to send this note to wish you a wonderful holiday and to let you know how much we appreciate your membership to our service. I'm so thankful for your interest, questions, and support, and I wanted to remind you of an important survey we'll be releasing soon. We're very excited about this important new initiative to help members, and we need your feedback. Our team will be out of the office until Monday, December 2, so you should expect the December editions of the Dividend Growth Newsletter and High Yield Dividend Newsletter at that time. As 2020 approaches, what a great time to consider our premier publications, too, namely the Exclusive and the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. Get next year started off right. Order them below: Exclusive publication here. High Yield Dividend Newsletter here. May you have a wonderful holiday week with family and friends, and thank you again! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFAPresident, Investment ResearchValuentum Securities, Inc.brian@valuentum.com



The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.