Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Apr 22, 2021

Coca-Cola Looks Ready to Break Out, Valuation Not Attractive Though
Image Shown: Coca-Cola’s technicals look like they are carving out a nice cup-and-handle pattern, but its valuation leaves a lot to be desired, in our view. Coca-Cola’s outlook for 2021 showcases strong comparable earnings per share growth and solid free cash flow generation. The soda maker’s valuation and Dividend Cushion ratio are held down by its large net debt position, but we fully expect it to make good on future dividend growth. From a technical standpoint, shares look like they might break out, but more value-focused investors might pause at its lofty valuation. We’re maintaining our fair value estimate range for now.

Apr 21, 2021

One of Our Favorite Dividend Growth Ideas J&J Smashes Consensus Estimates
Image Shown: Summary of Johnson & Johnson's first-quarter 2021 earnings results. Image Source: J&J. On April 20, Johnson & Johnson reported first quarter 2021 earnings that smashed past consensus estimates. In conjunction with the solid earnings report, Johnson & Johnson raised its quarterly dividend 5% sequentially to $1.06 per share or $4.24 per share on an annualized basis, good for a forward-looking yield of ~2.5% as of this writing. The health care giant’s outperformance largely came from its ‘Medical Devices’ segment, which took a beating last year as the COVID-19 pandemic prompted widespread deferrals of elective surgeries. Last quarter, this part of the firm’s business grew its reported sales by 10.9% year-over-year, aided by strong underlying demand as elective surgeries began to resume in earnest in key countries worldwide and to a lesser extent, foreign currency tailwinds (on a non-GAAP adjusted operational basis, sales at this segment were up 8.8% year-over-year). We continue to like J&J as an idea in both the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Apr 21, 2021

Vertex and CRISPR Therapeutics Partnership Update
Image: Vertex Pharma is co-developing gene-based therapy for sickle cell disease (SCD) and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia (TDT). CTX001 may offer a potential cure for people that have SCD and TDT.On April 20, Vertex Pharma and CRISPR Therapeutics issued a press release that noted “the companies have amended their collaboration agreement to develop, manufacture and commercialize CTX001, an investigational CRISPR/Cas9-based gene editing therapy that is being developed as a potentially curative therapy for sickle cell disease (SCD) and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (TDT).” The development is a win-win for both Vertex Pharma and CRISPR Therapeutics and reinforces our positive view towards both company’s capital appreciation upside. We prefer Vertex Pharma as our speculative biotech play in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio given its more resilient financials and established commercial portfolio. Note that with early stage biotech companies such as CRISPR Therapeutics, investors are taking outsized risks and could lose all their capital should future endeavors not pan out as expected.

Apr 20, 2021

Banks Holding Up Well, Some Feel Pain from Archegos Capital Collapse
Image Shown: Bank of America Corporation has an optimistic view towards the ongoing US economic recovery. Image Source: Bank of America Corporation – First Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. Earnings season is now underway! In this article, we cover the performance of two large US banks and the problems facing one major European bank in light of losses stemming from Archegos Capital Management blowing up. Large reserve releases last quarter--due to the US economy holding up better than expected during the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic--played an outsized role in bolstering the financial performance of key US banks after these institutions recorded large reserve builds in 2020. Net interest margins (‘NIM’) continue to face headwinds from the low interest rate environment, though noninterest related income (such as income generated from wealth management, investing banking, and other activities) at several banks has come in strong (aided by favorable capital market conditions).

Apr 19, 2021

UnitedHealth Group Raises Guidance After Stellar Earnings Report
Image Shown: We added UnitedHealth Group Inc to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio back on November 27, 2020. Since then, shares of UNH have surged higher, though we are primarily interested in the company’s immense dividend growth potential. We continue to be big fans of UnitedHealth Group and like the company as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Shares of UNH have surged towards the upper end of our fair value estimate range over the past couple of months. When we roll forward our enterprise cash flow model for the new year, we expect UnitedHealth Group’s fair value estimate to increase meaningfully on the back of its improving cash flow growth outlook. As of this writing, shares of UNH yield ~1.3% and its Dividend Cushion ratio stands north of 3.0, highlighting the tremendous strength of its forward-looking dividend coverage.

Apr 13, 2021

SPACs Are Good for Markets, Not SPAC-tacular for Investors
Image: Performance of the Defiance NextGen SPAC IPO ETF (SPAK), where “a 60% weighting is applied to IPO companies derived from SPACs and 40% is allocated to common stock of newly listed Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (“SPACs”), ex-warrants” has been roughly flat since inception in October 2020. According to some estimates, there were 248 Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC) that went public in 2020, raising more than $80 billion (up sixfold from a record high set in 2019). SPACs reached heightened levels of excitement in early February, but the performance of the Defiance NextGen SPAC IPO ETF (SPAK) has been roughly flat since it began trading October 2020. Most of what investors have to go on when considering a SPAC is a thorough assessment of the management team, as SPACs go public as a shell (“blank check”) company with no underlying operating business. Some forward-leaning, “out of the box” management teams may be worth rolling the dice on, but for the most part, the great many of the SPACs out there probably aren’t worth your time. Though we like the idea of more investor choice once SPACs take operations public (and new companies are listed), we’re not getting lured into the SPAC IPO boom. It’s not our style. Even diversified exposure to the SPAK ETF doesn’t sound great. We’ll be patient and evaluate the companies SPACs bring public through traditional equity analysis to see if opportunities present themselves. Prudence and care, first, always.

Apr 12, 2021

How Many Stocks to Achieve Diversification?
Image: GameStop’s shares are falling like a rock after hitting euphoric levels in the mid-$400s earlier this year. Our fair value estimate stands below $10 per share.  Day trading GameStop is gambling. Resist the urge. The 60/40 stock bond portfolio may have cost investors a bundle during the past 30 years relative to active stock managers charging 2% per annum, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t diversify appropriately within the equity component of your asset mix. Use common sense, and don’t get too aggressive on your favorite ideas either. We generally like to limit new ideas to 8%-10% of the newsletter portfolios at “cost” and generally don’t like them to run higher than 15% of the newsletter portfolio after appreciation. From my perspective, only ultra-sophisticated investors should ever consider shorting, and please don’t gamble too aggressively on options. Know the unlimited loss potential of selling options contracts. Options is not a fun game to lose. Investing is a long game--and know the difference between diversification across your favorite ideas and “diworsification” by buying overpriced assets. Adding pipeline MLPs to your portfolio in mid-2015 may have smoothed your returns the past five years, but only by hurting them. Leave gambling to the quants. See through the illusion of “factor” investing. Be smart, and don’t get stuck thinking “inside the box.” Markets are inefficient, unless you think GameStop was appropriately priced at both $180 and $350 on the same day (March 10) on no news. Finally, unless you have a few friends that can lend you a few billion in a pinch, don’t ever forget the cardinal rule--and even if you have a few billionaires next store: Always leave yourself outs. Stocks for the long run.

Apr 8, 2021

The Best Years Are Ahead
The wind is at our backs. The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets to remain overpriced for some time). Bond yields are paltry and will likely stay that way for some time, requiring advisors to rethink their asset mixes. The stock market looks to be the place to be long term, as it has always been. With all the tools at the disposal of government officials, economic collapse (as in the Great Depression) may no longer be even a minor probability in the decades to come--unlike in the past with the capitalistic mindset that governed the Federal Reserve before the “Lehman collapse."

Mar 31, 2021

Why You Need to Hire an Active Stock Manager and Ditch Modern Portfolio Theory
Image: Why You Need to Hire an Active Stock Manager and Ditch Modern Portfolio Theory. An Approximate Hypothetical representation of an active manager that charges a 2% active management fee that mirrors the S&P 500 benchmark versus an advisor that charges a 1% advisor fee that applies a 60/40 stock/bond rebalancing from 1990-2021. Approximate Hypothetical returns are based on the following extrapolation: “Since inception in November 9, 1992, returns after taxes on distributions and sales of fund shares for the [Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Investor Shares] VBINX came in at 6.5% through June 30, 2020, while the same measure since inception in January 22, 1993, for the S&P 500, as measured by the S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), came in at 8.12% through June 30, 2020.” The ‘Approximate Hypothetical 60/40 stock/bond portfolio w/ 1% advisor fee (smoothed)’ represents a hypothetical 100,000 compounded at an annual rate of 5.5% [6.5 less 1] over the period 1990-2021. The ‘Approximate Hypothetical S&P 500 (SPY) w/ 2% active management fee (smoothed)’ represents a hypothetical 100,000 compounded at an annual rate of 6.12% [8.12 less 2] over the period 1990-2021. Approximate Hypothetical results are for illustrative purposes only and are based on the data available. Let's get caught up on recent developments at Korn Ferry, Dick's Sporting Goods, Chewy, GameStop, Williams Sonoma, McCormick & Company, and CRISPR Therapeutics.

Mar 29, 2021

Nothing May Derail the U.S. Economy In the Long Run
Image Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. U.S. gross domestic product is back on the upswing, and we fully expect the U.S. economy to recover, and then continue its expansion in coming years. U.S. GDP, January 1947 through October 2020. Warren Buffett may have said it best in Berkshire Hathaway’s 2020 Annual Report: “Never bet against America.”