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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Mar 9, 2020
Oil Markets Get Decimated
Image Shown: Oil prices have been decimated year-to-date. The outlook for independent upstream names has become dire. In an industry that’s generated little to no free cash flow since 2010, and instead has relied heavily on capital markets to stay afloat; for all the hype surrounding surging US production of raw energy resources there hasn’t been much shareholder value creation to show for it. Consumers and certain US states have been big winners, sure, but equity holders and now potentially credit holders have largely taken it on the chin. We will continue following the space for our members going forward, and please note there’s a very good reason we removed the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF from our newsletter portfolios back in August 2019 (link here), the outlook for the energy space (particularly oil & gas) was lackluster at the time and has since become dire.
Mar 9, 2020
Oil Prices Collapse, Reiterating 2,350-2,750 S&P 500 Target Range; Credit Crunch Looming?
From Value Trap: “The banking sector was not the only sector that faced considerable selling pressure during the Financial Crisis of the late 2000s, of course. Other companies that required funding to maintain their business operations faced severe liquidity risk, or a situation where refinancing, or rolling over debt, might be difficult to do on fair terms, making such financing prohibitive in some cases. Those that faced outsize debt maturities during the most severe months of the credit crunch faced a real threat of Chapter 11 restructuring had the lending environment completely seized. In thinking about share prices as a range of probable fair value outcomes, equity prices tend to face pressure as downside probabilities such as a liquidity event are baked into the market price and at a higher probability. Because debtholders are higher up on the capital structure than equity holders, shareholders can sometimes get nothing in the event of a bankruptcy filing. Entities that are extremely capital-market dependent, or those that require ongoing access to new capital to fund operations, often face the greatest risk of the worst equity price declines during deteriorating credit market conditions.” Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation, published 2018
Mar 8, 2020
Coronavirus Crisis Deepens, Italy on Lockdown
Image: WHO. The epidemic curve of confirmed COVID-19 cases that have been reported outside of China is steepening. Italy remains a hotspot. The situation with COVID-19 remains dire. A vaccine may not be available for another 12-18 months, which is simply too long before what could be an overwhelming of healthcare systems around the globe. The WHO has already revised the expected mortality rate of COVID-19 higher, now 3.4%, and its catastrophic impact on the large economies of China and Italy is already being felt. The US equity markets have largely lulled investors to complacency the past decade or so, and many have been conditioned to largely ignore major events as a result, employing the buy-the-dip-at-any-price mentality and championing “stocks always go up” doctrine. However, the situation with COVID-19 could be setting the stage for an all-out financial crisis, as we outline in this piece here. With the S&P 500 at 2,972, the market continues to largely ignore the long-term risks that may come from changed behavior as a result of COVID-19. We’re reiterating our near-term 2,350-2,750 target on the S&P 500, and we encourage long-term investors to evaluate long-term charts to assess how far we have come since the March 2009 panic bottom, and how even a modest 10-20% sell-off from here (supported by reasonable forward multiples and earnings) would be largely a blip over the long term. This blip, however, may cause an outright panic, made worse by price-agnostic trading. The Fed, for example, made an emergency 50 basis-point rate cut with the market just a few percentage points off all-time highs. Emotions are running high, and investors are simply not ready for COVID-19. All else equal, panic selling is not selling with the S&P 500 at 2,972, today's levels. Just because stock prices have fallen doesn't make them cheaper. Panic selling, for example, might be selling with the S&P 500 at 2,000 (if it ever reaches those levels), and that's if reasonable valuation expectations don't warrant those levels at that time. Today, we're still at relatively overpriced valuation levels on broader market indices, and the sell-off to this point has been more reasonable than overdone, in our view. Please stay safe out there!
Mar 6, 2020
ALERT: Re-establishing "Crash Protection"
Anecdotally, we are hearing lots more talk of algorithmic trading, and how it is becoming harder to sell any volume of equities without moving the markets. We have established a target range on the S&P 500 of 2,350-2,750 and explain how the COVID-19 crisis can catalyze into an all-out financial crisis (see here), and conditions have all the makings of another crash from here (see here). We're still only a few percentage points from all-time highs on most major indexes.
Mar 6, 2020
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 6
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.
Mar 5, 2020
2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?
Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that the decrease in spending is very real, and we’ve yet to see the brunt of the impact yet. We have written extensively about our valuation expectations and target on the S&P 500 in the past, so please don’t mistake this reference as the extent of our thinking. We do not think a sell-off on the S&P 500 to the range is 2350-2750 is too far-fetched, as it really only gets the broader markets back to late 2018 levels (a mere year ago or so), and reflects a reasonable 16x forward expected earnings, as of February 14, hair cut by 10% as a result of the impact of COVID-19. The Fed put may not matter much anymore in the wake of this “biological” crisis, and increased fiscal spending may not be enough to offset what could be sustained weakness across the global economy.
Mar 5, 2020
AT&T Provides Another Key Update
Image Shown: The blue line represents the share price performance of AT&T Inc and the orange line represents the performance of the S&P 500 Index. Shares of T have outperformed the index on a year-to-date basis as of this writing. One of our favorite high yield ideas out there is AT&T Inc --- ~5.6% yield --- given its stellar free cash flow profile and ongoing corporate initiatives: serious debt reduction, share buybacks, upcoming launch of HBO Max, the rollout of 5G services across the US, cost structure improvements, and upside from AT&T’s public-private partnership FirstNet (billed as the first nationwide network in the US dedicated to entities/groups operating within the realm of public safety i.e. first responders like law enforcement, firefighters, and emergency medical services providers). On March 3, AT&T provided an update on some of its recent initiatives, news that has offered resiliency to shares.
Mar 4, 2020
A ~0.1% Probability Since 1896
Image Source: Wikipedia Commons. "The market crash in the past two weeks has been truly historic: its probability of occurrence is ~0.1% since 1896; the velocity of the plunge and of the VIX surge is the fastest on record; and the 10-year [Treasury yield] is at all-time low. (Hao Hong, BOCOM International, a subsidiary of Bank of Communications, March 1)" -- Howard Marks' memo, Nobody Knows II
Mar 4, 2020
Analyzing Three Names Within the Retail Industry
In this note, we cover one quality retailer and two retailers that were facing a myriad of problems long before the novel coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) epidemic reared its head: Best Buy, Kohl's and Macy's.
Mar 3, 2020
Covering Oil Markets Ahead of the Upcoming OPEC/OPEC+ Meetings
Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – 2019 IR Presentation. On March 5, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (‘OPEC’) is holding an “extraordinary” meeting in Vienna, Austria, which will be followed up by a ministerial meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC members the next day. The group had already agreed to cut oil supplies by an additional 0.5 million barrels of per day (‘bpd’) back in December 2019 through an agreement that would last through March 2020 (that was on top of an existing deal to keep 1.2 million bpd off of the market which runs through the end of March 2020 as well). As part of that deal, Saudi Arabia offered to “voluntarily” reduce supplies by an additional 0.4 million bpd; however, that hasn’t been enough to prop up oil prices (even though ~1.7-2.1 million bpd of oil supplies are effectively removing removed from the market at 100% compliance). As of this writing, the internationally-oriented May 2020 Brent contracts are trading near $52 per barrel, down from the high $60s level seen at the end of 2019. The US-oriented WTI contracts haven’t fared any better, and April 2020 deliveries are trading near $47 per barrel as of this writing.



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