Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 22, 2019

PayPal Buys Honey and We Like the Fit
Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc – Press release covering its acquisition of Honey. A holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, PayPal Holdings announced on November 20 it was acquiring the shopping and rewards start-up Honey for ~$4 billion. Honey is a high-growth technology platform (delivered through a browser add-on and mobile application) that helps consumers find deals and save when they shop online. That includes finding price discounts, promotions and events, sending alerts, creating lists, and offering a rewards system known as Honey Gold to its ~17 million monthly active users. We think this deal is highly complementary to PayPal’s operations, and we continue to give shares of PYPL a fair value estimate of $125 per share.

Nov 22, 2019

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending November 22
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Nov 21, 2019

More Big Pharma Earnings to Digest
Image Source: Zoetis Inc – 2019 Annual Shareholders Meeting Presentation. Calendar third-quarter 2019 earnings was a busy time for biotech and pharma companies. We covered a number of biotech and pharma earnings in this piece here, but let’s dig into a few others. In alphabetical order by ticker: GSK, PFE, ZTS.

Nov 20, 2019

Economic Commentary: Marks, Dalio, and the Discount Rate
Image Source: Mike Cohen. We sat down with the Valuentum team to discuss their latest thoughts on recent economic developments. To kick off the conversation, let’s start with the team’s views on the latest memo from Oaktree’s Howard Marks: Mysterious. For those that don’t know Howard, he is the Director and Co-Chairman of Oaktree, which managed about $122 billion in AUM, as of September 2019. The memo goes into depth on the reasons for negative interest rates, the impact of negative interest rates, and opines on whether the US will ever see negative interest rates. Then, we’ll go from there!

Nov 20, 2019

Shares of Home Depot Appear Overvalued
On November 19, Home Depot reported third-quarter earnings for fiscal 2019 (period November 3, 2019), and same-store sales growth fell way short of expectations which sent shares of HD sharply lower on the day. Company-wide same-store sales rose by 3.6% year-over-year, supported by 3.8% year-over-year growth in the US last quarter. We think Home Depot's shares are way ahead of themselves given rising exogenous headwinds and the looming threat of additional tariffs should ongoing US-China trade talks break down. The company has a great cash flow profile, but its valuation is stretched as the growth rates required to justify its current valuation aren’t realistic, in our view.

Nov 19, 2019

Berkshire Hathaway Invests in RH, a Quality Company in Our View
Image Shown: RH now counts Berkshire Hathaway Inc as a shareholder, which saw shares of RH initially spike up on the news. Having reviewed RH’s business model, capital allocation priorities, and financial position, it’s clear why Berkshire Hathaway would like the business. Strong free cash flows, rising margins, and a management team that’s very capable of adapting to shifting macro forces makes RH a quality company. We continue to like Class B shares of Berkshire Hathaway as a top holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and while its investment in RH is modest compared to a company as big as Berkshire Hathaway, this investment is a sound one in our view. Members interested in reading more about Berkshire Hathaway should check out our third quarter earnings review here---->>>>

Nov 18, 2019

Big Energy Earnings Roundup
Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Presentation. As long as raw energy resource prices remain lackluster, the upstream divisions of the major energy giants will continue to generate far less cash flows than they did during the boom period (2010-2014). For Chevron, Shell, Total, and Exxon Mobil, their downstream operations offer a degree of stability but their large net debt positions and hefty capital expenditure budgets will continue to pressure their financials for some time. While Conoco doesn’t possess downstream operations anymore after the split with Phillips 66 in 2012, management’s focus on net debt reduction and free cash flows post-2014 puts COP in a better position than most of these bigger integrated peers (particularly CVX, RDS and XOM). That being said, we don’t include Conoco in any of our newsletter portfolios in part due to its lack of a “natural hedge” (downstream operations) and its direct exposure to raw energy resource prices. BP plc continues to represent one of our favorite plays in the energy space and shares of BP are included in our simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. We like BP’s cash flow profile, its stellar operational execution of late (upstream projects are consistently getting turned online under-budget and ahead of schedule), and its impressive downstream asset base. Members interested in reading more about why we like BP should check out this piece here, and if you may wish to add the High Yield Dividend Newsletter to your membership, please click here. Shares of BP yield 6.3% as of this writing and our fair value estimate of $45 per share of BP is comfortably above where shares are currently trading at.

Nov 16, 2019

Walmart Earnings Report Indicates US Consumer Still Strong
Image Shown: Shares of Walmart Inc have performed quite well so far in 2019. That’s arguably due to the ongoing strength of the US consumer and the significant investments Walmart has made into expanding its domestic grocery e-commerce offerings.  There’s a lot of talk of recession right now, but as Walmart’s latest quarterly results show, the US consumer remains resilient. A combination of historically low unemployment rates and modest wage growth in the US has created a bulwark against exogenous shocks, with an eye towards the economic slowdown currently going on in the Eurozone and East Asia. We’ll see how long this paradigm can last. We aren’t interested in adding Walmart to any of our newsletter portfolios at this time, as shares of WMT already trade near the top end of our fair value estimate range (which sits at $119 per share). Shares of WMT yield 1.8% as of this writing. We continue to like the current holdings in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios.

Nov 15, 2019

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending November 15
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Nov 15, 2019

Cisco Remains a Free Cash Flow Cow Supported By a Solid Net Cash Position
Image Shown: A breakdown of Cisco Systems Inc’s revenue as of the end of its fiscal 2019. Image Source: Cisco Systems – Fiscal 2019 Annual Report. On November 13, Cisco Systems reported first-quarter earnings for its fiscal 2020 (period ended October 26, 2019) that saw shares of CSCO sell off on November 14. That was likely due to the weak guidance management put out for the second quarter of the firm’s fiscal 2020, but we continue to like Cisco’s quality free cash flows and net cash balance. We’ll have plenty more to say when Cisco publishes its 10-Q filing covering the first quarter of its fiscal 2020.