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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Aug 26, 2024
Chevron Lacks Dividend Coverage with Traditional Free Cash Flow
Image: Chevron’s shares have been choppy during the past few years. During the second quarter, Chevron returned $6 billion in cash to shareholders, including $3 billion for each of dividends and share repurchases, and more than $50 billion during the past two years. The second quarter marked the ninth straight quarter of over $5 billion cash returned to shareholders. Chevron ended June with $4 billion in cash and cash equivalents and total debt of $23.2 billion. Through the first six months of the year, traditional free cash flow, as measured by cash flow from operations less all capex, was $5 billion, shy of the $6 billion it paid as dividends over the same time period. We prefer ExxonMobil, which has much better dividend coverage than Chevron.
Aug 23, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 23
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Aug 21, 2024
TJX Companies Boosts Profit Guidance
Image: TJX’s stock has been on a tear over the past couple years. TJX expects consolidated comparable store sales growth to be between 2%-3% in the third quarter. Pre-tax profit margin is expected in the range of 11.8%-11.9% for the quarter, while diluted earnings per share is targeted in the range of $1.06-$1.08. For the full year fiscal 2025, consolidated comparable store sales are expected to be up ~3% (was 2%-3%), and the company raised its pre-tax profit margin to 11.2% and raised its diluted earnings per share outlook to be in the range of $4.09-$4.13 (was $4.03-$4.09). Though we liked the quarter and raised profit guidance, TJX’s shares are not cheap. We’re sticking with our $106 per share fair value estimate at this time. Shares yield 1.3%.
Aug 16, 2024
Deere’s Fiscal Third Quarter Results Reveal Challenging Conditions in the Global Agricultural and Construction Sectors
Image Source: Deere & Company. Looking to all of fiscal 2024, Deere continues to expect weak top-line performance across its portfolio. Production & Precision Agriculture net sales are expected to fall 20%-25%, Small Ag & Turf net sales are expected to decline at a similar pace, while Construction & Forestry net revenues are expected to drop 10%-15% on the year. Financial Services net income is targeted at $720 million for fiscal 2024. Deere ended the quarter with a hefty net debt position. Though Deere’s top line continues to face pressure, and its balance sheet isn’t as strong as we would like, management did reaffirm its net income outlook for fiscal 2024 at approximately $7 billion, which was above the consensus forecast. Shares of Deere yield 1.6%.
Aug 16, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 16
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Aug 15, 2024
Walmart Raises Its Fiscal 2025 Outlook
Image Source: Walmart. Walmart’s adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2025 is now targeted in the range of $2.35-$2.43 (was $2.23-$2.37). The company ended the quarter with total debt of $47 billion and cash and cash equivalents of $8.8 billion. Walmart hauled in $5.9 billion in free cash flow during the first six months of the year, well in excess of the $3.3 billion it paid in dividends over the same time period. We liked Walmart’s second quarter report, its raised outlook for fiscal 2025, and the company’s very healthy dividend. Shares yield 1.2% at the time of this writing.
Aug 12, 2024
Procter & Gamble’s Organic Growth Fails to Impress
Image Source: P&G’s Citizenship Report. Procter & Gamble’s fiscal fourth quarter disappointed a number of investors as organic growth failed to outpace expectations. Looking to fiscal 2025, all-in sales growth is expected in the range of 2%-4%, with organic growth in the range of 3%-5%. P&G is targeting fiscal 2025 core net earnings per share growth in the range of 5%-7% versus fiscal 2024 core earnings per share of $6.59. We like P&G a lot, but shares are trading well above our fair value estimate.
Aug 12, 2024
Starbucks' Mixed Results Speak to Cautious Consumer Environment
Image Source: Starbucks' Global Impact Report. Starbucks’ fiscal third quarter results weren’t great. Consolidated revenue fell 1%, comparable store sales dropped, while the firm’s non-GAAP earnings per share faced additional pressures. During the fiscal third quarter, Starbucks opened 526 net new stores, ending the period with 39,477 stores -- broken down into 52% company-operated and 48% licensed. Stores in the U.S. and China made up 61% of its global portfolio. Starbucks is getting squeezed by a cautious consumer and higher labor costs, and while we like the company, we’re just not interested in shares at this time.
Aug 9, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 9
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Jul 29, 2024
McDonald’s Speaks of Cautious Consumer But Traction with $5 Meal Deal
McDonald’s second quarter results weren’t great. Comparable store sales and consolidated operating income fell during the period, but McDonald’s lapped a very strong second quarter of 2023, which included a double-digit comp. Diluted earnings per share also declined at a mid-single-digit pace. That said, however, McDonald’s $5 meal deal is gaining traction, and we think it is part of the solution for lower guest counts driven by its recent strategic pricing actions. McDonald’s hasn’t been a strong performer in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio of late, but we remain optimistic on its prospects in the current inflationary environment. Shares yield 2.6%.


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