Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 23, 2025

Procter & Gamble on Track to Deliver on Fiscal Year Guidance
Image Source: Procter & Gamble. Looking to fiscal 2025 guidance, all-in sales growth is expected in the range of 2%-4% versus the prior year. Organic growth for the fiscal year is targeted in the range of 3%-5%. P&G reiterated its core earnings per share growth for the fiscal year to be in the range of 5%-7%, equating to a range of $6.91-$7.05, or a 6% increase at the midpoint. In fiscal 2025, P&G expects to pay around $10 billion in dividends and repurchase $6-$7 billion of common shares. At the time of this writing, shares of P&G yield ~2.5%.

Jan 23, 2025

Kinder Morgan Is Now Covering Cash Dividends Paid with Free Cash Flow
Image: Kinder Morgan’s shares have been on a tear after the midstream energy giant reports healthier free cash flow that covers cash dividends paid.Kinder Morgan is doing a much better job covering dividends with traditional free cash flow these days. For the three months ended December 31, 2024, cash flow from operations was $1.51 billion, with capital expenditures coming in at $772 million, resulting in free cash flow of $738 million, which was in excess of the company’s cash dividends paid of $642 million in the quarter. For the year ended December 31, 2024, free cash flow was $3 billion, which was in excess of cash dividends paid of $2.6 billion, resulting in free cash flow after cash dividends paid of $449 million.

Jan 15, 2025

Bank Earnings Roundup: C, WFC, GS, JPM
Image Source: Hakan Dahlstrom. Citigroup launches a new, multi-year program to repurchase $20 billion in stock, Wells Fargo puts up strong earnings growth in the fourth quarter, Goldman Sachs issued a blockbuster fourth quarter report, while JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns of inflation and geopolitical risks.

Jan 14, 2025

KB Home’s Outlook for 2025 Better Than Expected
Image: KB Home’s shares have done well since the beginning of 2023. Looking to fiscal 2025, KB Home's housing revenue is expected in the range of $7.00-$7.5 billion, compared to the consensus forecast of $6.89 billion, with the average selling price in the range of $488,000-$498,000. Homebuilding operating income as a percentage of revenues is targeted at roughly 10.7%, which assumes no inventory-related charges. For the year, housing gross profit margin is targeted in the range of 20.0%-21.0% and assumes no inventory-related charges. Selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percentage of housing revenues is expected in the range of 9.6%-10.0%. We liked KB Home’s fourth quarter results and outlook for fiscal 2025 and what they imply with respect to the health of the housing market. KB Home doesn’t make the cut for any newsletter portfolio, however.

Jan 11, 2025

Delta Delivers Most Profitable December Quarter in Its History
Image Source: Colin Brown. We liked Delta’s fourth quarter results and outlook for 2025, but we’re not interested in adding any airline to the newsletter portfolios. Airline economics are notoriously difficult to forecast, and their operating results are heavily levered to volatile jet fuel prices. Swings in the economic environment can also have a large impact on performance given the operating leverage inherent to their business models. Delta is currently riding an upswing in demand, but we remain cautious on shares given the volatility innate to an airline’s business model. We remain on the sidelines.

Jan 10, 2025

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 10
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Jan 6, 2025

HP Inc. Sets Q1'25 Expectations Below Consensus, Dividend Looks Healthy
Image Source: HP Inc. For fiscal 2025, HP Inc. expects non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share to be in the range of $3.45-$3.75, the midpoint in-line with the consensus forecast of $3.60. Free cash flow is targeted in the range of $3.2-$3.6 billion on the year, the midpoint up from $3.3 billion last fiscal year and well in excess of the company’s annual run-rate dividends of ~$1.1 billion. During fiscal 2024, the company returned $2.1 billion via share repurchases. HP ended the quarter with $3.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $9.7 billion in short-and long-term debt. HP is set to benefit from an AI PC refresh, and even though expectations weren’t set as high as what the market was looking for in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, HP Inc. remains a strong dividend payer. Shares yield 3.5% at the time of this writing.

Jan 5, 2025

Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating
Image shown: An examination of the problem that might arise by focusing exclusively on companies that have economic moats, or sustainable and durable competitive advantages.Without an economic castle, an economic moat doesn’t matter. Let's examine Valuentum's Economic Castle™ rating.

Jan 1, 2025

The Price-to-Earnings Ratio Demystified
Let's examine the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. The key takeaways are: 1) without using a discounted cash-flow model, the P/E ratio that should be applied to a company's future expected earnings stream can never be appropriately calculated, and by extension, 2) when investors assign an arbitrary price-to-earnings multiple to a company’s earnings (based on historical trends or industry peers or the market multiple), they are essentially making estimates for all of the drivers behind a discounted cash-flow model in one fell swoop (and sometimes hastily). As earnings for next year are often within sight and can be estimated with some confidence (though this certainly varies among firms), calculating the price-to-earnings ratio via a discounted cash-flow process, in our opinion, is of far greater importance than worrying about whether a firm will beat or miss earnings in its next fiscal year. Because the P/E ratio is a discounted cash-flow model that considers the long-term qualitative dynamics of a particular entity, cash-flow analysis remains the first and most important pillar of our Valuentum Buying Index. And finally, investors cannot ignore valuation analysis or the future. Valuation is an important driver behind stock prices, and it is based on future expectations that can only be estimated. This is just a fact of the markets.

Jan 1, 2025

Costco’s Business Humming Along Nicely, But Stock Is Not Cheap
Image Source: Costco. During the fiscal first quarter, Costco's membership income grew 7.8% year-over-year, while paid memberships grew 7.6% year-over-year, to 77.4 million. Total cardholders increased 7.2% year-over-year, to 138.8 million. Its worldwide renewal rate remained healthy at 90.4%. Net income for the quarter came in at $3.82, after excluding a $0.22 per share tax benefit related to stock-based compensation, beating the consensus forecast by a few pennies per share. Excluding discrete tax-related benefits occurring in both the most recently reported quarter and the same period last year, net income and diluted earnings per share advanced 9.9% and 9.8%, respectively. Costco’s fiscal first quarter was solid, but with the company trading at 50x forward earnings, we’re looking elsewhere.