Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 30, 2019

Johnson & Johnson Announces New Test Results That Reveal No Traces of Asbestos in Johnson Baby Powder Products
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – February 2019 CAGNY IR Presentation. Major retailers including Walmart, Rite Aid Corp, and CVS Health pulled Johnson Baby Powder products from their shelves after the announcement by the FDA. Johnson & Johnson is hoping that by fighting back it can preserve its brand power, revenues, and position on retailer’s shelves once it’s all said and done. We will continue to monitor this situation going forward and would like to note that Johnson & Johnson, potential legal liabilities aside, raised its full-year guidance for 2019 multiple times this year highlighting the underlying demand for its vast array of healthcare-related offerings. That supports a nice free cash flow growth trajectory.

Oct 30, 2019

Caterpillar Misses Estimates and Revises Guidance Downwards
Image Source: Caterpillar Inc – Third quarter 2019 IR presentation. Should the global economy show signs of stabilizing, particularly as it relates to industrial activity, Caterpillar would appear relatively cheap at ~$141 per share as of the end of the October 29 trading session. Recent signs have not been promising. Exports out of South Korea, a barometer for the global economy, continue to plummet while macroeconomic readings in the EU and North America are showing signs of a major slowdown materializing as we speak (particularly in the Eurozone, but that appears to be spreading to the US economy as well). China’s economy continues to feel the heat from the US-China trade war. The low end of our fair value estimate range stands at $125 per share of CAT, meaning that under more pessimistic assumptions, Caterpillar appears fairly valued as of this writing.

Oct 29, 2019

Waste Management’s Dividend Well-Covered with Free Cash Flow
Image Source: david.dames. Waste Management is one of our favorite companies in our coverage universe, and the strength of its dividend is undeniable. The company’s operations have performed quite well during the first nine months of 2019, and the executive team expects the momentum to continue into 2020. Management did express some caution as it relates to its industrial segment revenue but reiterated strength in consumer activity and noted that, while its recycling (commodity-sensitive) business isn’t as strong as it originally expected, it expects to achieve its “guidance range of adjusted operating EBITDA of $4.4-$4.45 billion, free cash flow of $2.025-$2.075 billion, and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $4.28-$4.38." Shares of Waste Management yield 1.8% at the time of this writing.

Oct 28, 2019

High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio Holdings AT&T and Philip Morris International Continue to Shine
Image Shown: AT&T continues to surge higher this year as shares of T converge towards their intrinsic value, a process supported by recent activist investor activity directed towards the company. If you may wish to add the High Yield Dividend Newsletter to your membership, please click here.We continue to like the resurgence in AT&T's shares of late. The company is rapidly converging to our $40 per share fair value estimate, and as the company divests assets and pursues deleveraging, its dividend growth profile is enhanced. Shares already yield an enticing 5.3%, too. Philip Morris has rallied considerably since it broke deal talks with Altria, and we believe the company has a relatively lower business risk profile than Altria. Both Philip Morris and Altria have Dividend Cushion ratios below the 1.25x threshold, or GOOD threshold, but given more positive overall trends at Philip Morris, we prefer the company over Altria at this time. Shares of Philip Morris yield a lofty 5.7% at the time of this writing.

Oct 27, 2019

BREAKING: General Motors and the UAW Reach a Deal, Ending the Strike
Image Shown: Shares of General Motors had come under fire over concerns regarding the extended UAW strike over the past several weeks, but with the strike now over, shares of GM may begin to converge back towards their intrinsic value. For General Motors, the company was a bigger winner than at first glance. While the strike reportedly will cost the company north of $2.0 billion on a pre-tax basis, General Motors was successful at getting several of its underutilized factories closed. Americans want SUVs, crossovers, and pickup trucks, not passenger cars, so maintaining factories set up to meet demand that isn’t there just doesn’t make sense on an economic basis. We see this deal as being a win-win and part of General Motors’ ability to continue improving its cost structure by removing underutilized assets from its operations while keeping in mind the company often needs approval from the union in order to do so. The pay increases are reasonable, and given that underutilized factories are shutting down, we think General Motors’ cost structure will keep getting better over the coming quarters and years ahead.

Oct 25, 2019

Amazon Contends with Rising Operating Expenses and Shrinking Gross Margins
Image Shown: Shares of Amazon Inc have stumbled so far in 2019 as the headwinds from rising tariffs, largely a product of the US-China trade war, combined with a competitive cloud computing landscape put downward pressure on its profitability levels. Amazon reported third quarter 2019 earnings after the market close on Thursday October 24 that underwhelmed investor expectations and saw shares plummet after-hours. However, shares of AMZN recovered somewhat throughout the trading session on Friday October 25. We don’t include Amazon in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio due in part to its high levels of operating leverage. Small changes in one’s valuation assumptions generally cause large swings in the intrinsic value estimates of a company like Amazon. We like Amazon’s long-term free cash flow generating potential, and our fair value estimate stands at $2,000 per share, but we are still staying away from the company for now. Amazon would have to be heavily discounted relative to the low end of our fair value estimate range (which stands at $1,500 per share as of this writing) before we could get interested in the name as a potential newsletter portfolio addition.

Oct 25, 2019

Portfolio Holdings Intel and Visa Hit It Out of the Park
Image Shown: Shares of Intel Corporation leapt higher on Friday October 25 as the market digested its solid earnings report and guidance for this quarter. We continue to really like Intel in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and Visa in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The share price action seen in shares of INTC and V on Friday October 25 seem to indicate the market really appreciated each company’s latest earnings report, with shares of both companies marching higher as of this writing.

Oct 25, 2019

Weyerhaeuser Faces Deteriorating Financials While Trying to Manage a Monstrous Debt Load
Image Shown: Weyerhaeuser Company – Second quarter 2019 IR Presentation. One very interesting space of the REIT investing world includes the timber industry. Weyerhaeuser Company is a Seattle-based timber REIT that controls and owns ~12 million acres of timberland in the US, along with managing ~14 million acres in Canada via long-term licenses. The company commenced operations way back in 1900, and shares of WY yield 4.6% as of this writing. Weyerhaeuser carries too much leverage on the books for us to be interested in shares at this time, especially when considering the recent weakness in its financial performance. Given rising near-term headwinds, we think there are better high-yielding opportunities out there with safer payouts.

Oct 24, 2019

Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio Holding Microsoft Posts a Nice Quarter
Image Source: Mike Mozart. We continue to like Microsoft’s free cash flow growth potential and see the firm sporting a great dividend growth trajectory given its pristine balance sheet and quality cash flow profile. Shares of MSFT yield ~1.5% as of this writing.

Oct 24, 2019

Shares Up +9%; Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Holding PayPal Posts a Blowout Quarter
Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc – Third quarter 2019 earnings press release.  We think PayPal should continue to perform very well going forward as secular growth tailwinds combined with strong operational performance (with an eye towards its rising ‘Merchant Services’ and Venmo total payment volumes) support the company’s free cash flow growth trajectory. The company does not pay out a common dividend at this time but could given its pristine balance sheet and quality free cash flow profile. Our fair value estimate for PYPL stands at $125 per share at the time of this writing.