Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Jul 24, 2023

Tesla Is A Net-Cash-Rich, Free-Cash-Flow Generating, Secular-Growth Powerhouse
Image: Tesla’s Cybertruck showcasing its versatility. The truck is on track to begin production at Gigafactory in Texas in the coming months. Image Source: Tesla's second-quarter press release. The cash-based sources of intrinsic value (and the trajectory of growth in them) are the most important considerations when it comes to assessing the attractiveness of an equity. Two of the most important cash-based sources of intrinsic value are net cash on the balance sheet and future expected free cash flows, and in these two areas, Tesla excels. Though we won’t be adding Tesla to any of the newsletter portfolios anytime soon, we like it within a diversified basket of large-cap growth equities, of which the Best Ideas Newsletter in some ways approximates.

Jul 24, 2023

AT&T: A High Yield Dividend Disaster, Now An ESG Nightmare
Image: AT&T’s shares continue to disappoint. We’re not interested in AT&T at all and believe that shares may remain under significant pressure until 1) material top-line growth resumes, 2) the firm’s capital-intensity lessens, 3) free cash flow improves significantly, 4) dividend increases resume 5) its leverage improves and 6) there is more visibility related to the potential contingent liabilities associated with lead-covered cables. We doubt all six of these things will happen, and therefore we believe the best days are likely behind AT&T.

Jul 24, 2023

Philip Morris’ Cash-Flow Dividend Coverage Resilient, ZYN Performance Impressive
Image Source: Philip Morris. Our fair value estimate for Philip Morris stands at $105 per share, and we don’t expect to make any material changes to our valuation of the company following the quarterly report. Philip Morris’ combustible tobacco revenue continues to be strengthened by pricing power, while its smoke-free momentum, particularly with ZYN, continues. Though adjusted financial measures continue to look good at Philip Morris, more and more we’re paying closer attention to reported diluted earnings per share, which will face material pressure in 2023 ($5.36-$5.45 per share) compared to $5.81 per share in 2022. The company’s free cash flow remains robust, but its total debt levels are not ideal, in our view. Philip Morris is trading just shy of $100 with a dividend yield of ~5.2% at the time of this writing.

Jul 21, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 21
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Jul 20, 2023

Stock Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Jul 19, 2023

Top Dividend-Related News: MSFT, AAPL, ASML
Image: Microsoft’s shares hit a record high in July! Dividend growth giants Microsoft and Apple release news within the realm of artificial intelligence, while ASML Holding continues to expect a breakneck pace of revenue expansion during 2023.

Jul 14, 2023

Positive Pricing Elasticities Continue to Power Pepsi
Image: Effective net pricing continues to be strong at Pepsi. Image Source: PepsiCo. On July 13, PepsiCo, Inc. reported excellent second-quarter 2023 results. The firm’s pricing power continues to impress as the executive team manages modest losses in organic volume with huge effective net pricing increases. We’re sticking with the high end of our fair value estimate range for Pepsi of ~$220 per share as pricing power will likely continue for as long as pricing elasticities remain positive.

Jul 12, 2023

Pet Insurer Trupanion’s Business Facing Numerous Challenges; Short Interest at 35%+
Image: Trupanion may be growing its top line like a weed, but its operating losses have been growing, too. Image Source: Trupanion 10-K. The insurance business is a tough one, and medical pet insurance may be even more difficult. A number of dynamics from adverse selection to conflicts of interest to lack of bargaining power within the industry’s structure have plagued Trupanion’s financial performance for years, with the company accumulating significant net losses since inception. We’re huge fans of Trupanion’s moaty network of clients and veterinarians as well as its tremendous top-line growth potential, but veterinarians continue to capture the industry’s economic rents, in our view, to the detriment of Trupanion’s shareholders. Unit economics have not been adding up at Trupanion either, and free cash flow has been meager at best for a very long time. As veterinarian costs continue to rise and the firm receives push back on proposed rate increases, Trupanion’s net losses may continue to mount, and even under optimistic assumptions, Trupanion’s shares could be considered rich.

Jul 12, 2023

Domino’s Pizza Breaks Through Downtrend on Uber Eats and Postmates Deal
Image Source: Domino’s Pizza is up nearly 14% on a year-to-date basis during 2023, but the company’s shares haven’t done much over the past 52 weeks. On July 12, Domino’s Pizza announced that it had inked a new deal with Uber that would allow customers in the U.S. to order Domino’s food through the Uber Eats and Postmates apps with delivery provided by drivers of Domino’s and its franchisees. Domino’s Pizza continues to be a standout leader in digital initiatives across the restaurant arena, and the firm noted that the new agreement will open up Domino’s and its franchisees “to a new segment of customers and what (it) believes will be a meaningful amount of incremental delivery orders.” The high end of our fair value estimate of Domino’s stands at $450 per share.

Jul 11, 2023

NextEra Energy Expects 10% Annual Dividend Growth
Image Source: Nextera Energy. We think the utility sector is generally overrepresented in many dividend-oriented and income-producing portfolios, but we think NextEra Energy is a good fit for the well-diversified ESG Newsletter portfolio given its vast renewable resource assets. Shares of Nextera Energy have fallen more than 20% since the beginning of 2022, while the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF is down more than 8% over the same time period. Shares of Nextera Energy yield ~2.6%.