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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Mar 5, 2020
AT&T Provides Another Key Update
Image Shown: The blue line represents the share price performance of AT&T Inc and the orange line represents the performance of the S&P 500 Index. Shares of T have outperformed the index on a year-to-date basis as of this writing. One of our favorite high yield ideas out there is AT&T Inc --- ~5.6% yield --- given its stellar free cash flow profile and ongoing corporate initiatives: serious debt reduction, share buybacks, upcoming launch of HBO Max, the rollout of 5G services across the US, cost structure improvements, and upside from AT&T’s public-private partnership FirstNet (billed as the first nationwide network in the US dedicated to entities/groups operating within the realm of public safety i.e. first responders like law enforcement, firefighters, and emergency medical services providers). On March 3, AT&T provided an update on some of its recent initiatives, news that has offered resiliency to shares.
Mar 4, 2020
Analyzing Three Names Within the Retail Industry
In this note, we cover one quality retailer and two retailers that were facing a myriad of problems long before the novel coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) epidemic reared its head: Best Buy, Kohl's and Macy's.
Mar 3, 2020
Covering Oil Markets Ahead of the Upcoming OPEC/OPEC+ Meetings
Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – 2019 IR Presentation. On March 5, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (‘OPEC’) is holding an “extraordinary” meeting in Vienna, Austria, which will be followed up by a ministerial meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC members the next day. The group had already agreed to cut oil supplies by an additional 0.5 million barrels of per day (‘bpd’) back in December 2019 through an agreement that would last through March 2020 (that was on top of an existing deal to keep 1.2 million bpd off of the market which runs through the end of March 2020 as well). As part of that deal, Saudi Arabia offered to “voluntarily” reduce supplies by an additional 0.4 million bpd; however, that hasn’t been enough to prop up oil prices (even though ~1.7-2.1 million bpd of oil supplies are effectively removing removed from the market at 100% compliance). As of this writing, the internationally-oriented May 2020 Brent contracts are trading near $52 per barrel, down from the high $60s level seen at the end of 2019. The US-oriented WTI contracts haven’t fared any better, and April 2020 deliveries are trading near $47 per barrel as of this writing.
Mar 3, 2020
Fed Cuts 50 Basis Points, Expect More Market Volatility Ahead
Image Source: FOMC. The emergency 50-basis point Fed rate cut announced March 3 was largely expected by the marketplace in light of growing economic concerns due to COVID-19, but it does nothing to immunize against COVID-19 and little to stabilize the situation. We continue to monitor the situation closely, and we expect ongoing volatility in the coming days and months as the situation with COVID-19 remains fluid. Having moved to defensive positions in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio in January and having capitalized on the “crash protection” put, we are preparing for our next move. For now, we’re watching and waiting, and we encourage readers that have not yet picked up their copy of Value Trap to do so.
Mar 2, 2020
Analyzing Parsons: A Defense, Intelligence, and Critical Infrastructure Solutions Company
Image Source: Parsons Corporation – February 2020 IR Presentation. Parsons Corp is a provider of technical design, engineering, and software solutions to markets within the realm of defense, intelligence, threat detection and mitigation, cybersecurity, critical and transportation infrastructure, mobility solutions, connected communities, and more. The company went public in May 2019 and has since used those IPO proceeds to fund its growth story, including the acquisition of OGSystems during the first half of 2019 (which focuses on “geospatial intelligence, big data analytics, and threat mitigation”) and QSR in the second half of 2019 (which “specializes in radio frequency spectrum survey, record and playback; signals intelligence; and electronic warfare missions”). Parsons has a compelling product line-up that is aligned with strong and growing end markets. The company generates material free cash flow, and its balance sheet remains strong, with 0.4x net leverage and a strong liquidity position. Its valuation isn't too stretched, and the firm has a deep bench in the executive suite. We like Parsons and will have more to say when the firm reports its fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2019 before the market opens on March 10.
Mar 2, 2020
Self-Storage Industry Faces a Rocky 2020, But Long-Term Outlook Remains Bright
Image Source: CubeSmart – November 2019 IR Presentation. With housing costs rising aggressively in “Tier 1” and “Tier 2” cities across the East and West coasts in the US, that has created an immense need from households for additional storage space but at a much lower cost than simply buying a larger home, apartment, or condo. This has created a major secular growth trend that we’ve highlighted repeatedly in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter (‘HYDN’) by including shares of CubeSmart and Public Storage in our HYDN portfolio, both of which are self-storage focused real estate investment trusts (‘REITs’). Click here for more information on our HYDN. Both self-storage REITs have steadily grown their already sizable payouts over the past several years and we expect that to continue to be the case going forward, with shares of CUBE and PSA yielding ~4.2% and ~3.6%, respectively, as of this writing.
Feb 28, 2020
Home Depot Reports Fourth Quarter Amid Rising Exogenous Headwinds
Image Shown: Home Depot Inc has had plenty of success building off of and expanding its ‘Pro’ ecosystem as it relates to generating nice comparable sales growth. Image Source: Home Depot – 2019 Investor and Analyst Day IR Presentation. On February 25, Home Depot Inc reported fourth quarter and full-year earnings for fiscal 2019 (period ended February 2, 2020) which matched top-line consensus estimates and beat bottom-line consensus estimates. What really caught the market’s attention was Home Depot’s strong comparable sales performance, which was up 5.2% overall and 5.3% in the US during the fourth quarter on a year-over-year basis (for the whole fiscal year, Home Depot’s overall and US comparable sales rose by 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, keeping in mind the firm has locations in the US, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Guam, and the US Virgin Islands). This strength is at least partially why management pushed through a 10% sequential increase in Home Depot’s quarterly dividend, bringing it up to $1.50 per share or $6.00 on an annual basis. Shares of HD yield ~2.6% on a forward-looking basis as of this writing.
Feb 26, 2020
Republic Services Further Showcases Why It’s a Top Quality Defensive Firm
Image Shown: We added Republic Services Inc to our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio on January 13, 2020, with shares of RSG included at a modest weighting. Republic Services is a high quality defensive company that comes with a nice dividend growth trajectory. Our fair value estimate stands at $94 per share with room for upside as the top end of our fair value range estimate sits at $113 per share as of this writing. On February 24, we added additional protection to our newsletter portfolios that we strongly encourage our members to read about here. Additionally, members looking to read more about Republic Services and why we added shares of RSG to our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio should check out this article here.
Feb 25, 2020
Berkshire Reports 2019 Earnings
Berkshire Hathaway reported fourth quarter and full-year results on Saturday February 22, and we appreciate the firm’s performance across most of its business lines, keeping in mind that losses at its insurance-underwriting business during the fourth quarter weakened its company-wide performance. That being said, the insurance business can be volatile at times, which is why we appreciate Berkshire’s large railroad, utility, consumer goods, and other business segments. On the topic of Berkshire’s insurance-related exposure to the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic (which has since spread from China to the rest of the world, shutting down economies in South Korea, Italy, and elsewhere), insurance firms fundamentally altered the structure of their policies after the 2002-2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (‘SARS’) outbreak to exclude epidemic coverage from most policies (save for insurance policies that explicitly cover those situations) according to the WSJ. Shares of Berkshire Class B stock are included in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio with a top-weighting, and over the past few months shares of BRK.B has begun converging towards our fair value estimate of $229 per share. Berkshire Class B shares could move towards the top end of our fair value range estimate of $275 per share, particularly if the company figures out where to invest its enormous cash pile.
Feb 21, 2020
Realty Income Closes Out 2019 With a Solid Earnings Report and Promising Guidance
Image Shown: Shares of Realty Income Corporation, a holding in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, have taken off year-to-date. On February 19, the commercial property focused real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) Realty Income Corporation reported fourth quarter and full-year earnings for 2019. Its results beat market expectations for both its GAAP revenues and non-GAAP funds from operations (‘FFO’), which saw shares continue to march higher after performing quite well year-to-date. We include shares of O in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and continue to like the name. Please note that when we update our Retail REIT Industry models, it’s likely Realty Income will receive a nice boost to its fair value estimate and fair value estimate range. As of this writing, shares of O yield ~3.4% on a forward-looking basis and the REIT pays out a monthly dividend.



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