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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Nov 16, 2019
Walmart Earnings Report Indicates US Consumer Still Strong
Image Shown: Shares of Walmart Inc have performed quite well so far in 2019. That’s arguably due to the ongoing strength of the US consumer and the significant investments Walmart has made into expanding its domestic grocery e-commerce offerings.  There’s a lot of talk of recession right now, but as Walmart’s latest quarterly results show, the US consumer remains resilient. A combination of historically low unemployment rates and modest wage growth in the US has created a bulwark against exogenous shocks, with an eye towards the economic slowdown currently going on in the Eurozone and East Asia. We’ll see how long this paradigm can last. We aren’t interested in adding Walmart to any of our newsletter portfolios at this time, as shares of WMT already trade near the top end of our fair value estimate range (which sits at $119 per share). Shares of WMT yield 1.8% as of this writing. We continue to like the current holdings in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios.
Nov 15, 2019
Cisco Remains a Free Cash Flow Cow Supported By a Solid Net Cash Position
Image Shown: A breakdown of Cisco Systems Inc’s revenue as of the end of its fiscal 2019. Image Source: Cisco Systems – Fiscal 2019 Annual Report. On November 13, Cisco Systems reported first-quarter earnings for its fiscal 2020 (period ended October 26, 2019) that saw shares of CSCO sell off on November 14. That was likely due to the weak guidance management put out for the second quarter of the firm’s fiscal 2020, but we continue to like Cisco’s quality free cash flows and net cash balance. We’ll have plenty more to say when Cisco publishes its 10-Q filing covering the first quarter of its fiscal 2020.
Nov 13, 2019
Chesapeake Energy’s Pain Indicates Nothing “Safe” About Energy MLP Distributions
Image Source: Valuentum slide deck, December 2015. Valuentum released its bearish case on MLPs in June 2015.  Summary There is nothing "safe" in the stock market, and given the track record of the distributions of pipeline MLPs, there is nothing "safe" about pipeline MLP distributions. The MLP business model continues to be phased out, a trend that we anticipated when we made our bearish call on the group in June 2015. Chesapeake Energy's pain is a yet another reminder of the pipeline MLP group's exposure to energy resource pricing through the health (or rather ill-health) of its customer base. We continue to encourage pipeline operators to disclose free cash flow (cash flow from operations less all gross capital spending) prominently in press releases, alongside other industry-specific metrics. Investors of Chesapeake could get completely wiped out in a Chesapeake bankruptcy, and this could have implications across the pipeline MLP arena.
Nov 13, 2019
Intel Still One of Our Favorite Ideas
Image Source: Intel Corporation – August 2019 IR Presentation. We continue to like Intel in both our newsletter portfolios and see the company’s investments in the IoT space (and elsewhere) supporting decent free cash flow growth over the coming years. As Intel continues to monetize portions of its non-strategic equity and debt investments, expect a lot of those proceeds to go towards buying back its stock. That should help see shares of INTC continue converging towards the upper end of our fair value estimate range.
Nov 13, 2019
Keurig Dr Pepper Is Moving in the Right Direction
Image Source: Keurig Dr Pepper – September 2019 IR Presentation. Unlike some of its peers, Keurig Dr Pepper is not trading at a hefty premium to its intrinsic value. Our fair value estimate for shares of KDP stands at $25, with the top end of our fair value estimate range sitting at $30 per share. As of this writing, KDP trades near ~$29 per share, which is within reason in our view. Investors are pricing in Keurig Dr Pepper’s nice underlying sales growth forecast, merger-related synergies, and serious deleveraging efforts which is why KDP trades at the upper end of its fair value estimate range, in our view. We aren’t adding KDP to either of our newsletter portfolios at this time, but should deleveraging activities continue in earnest, that may change our view of the company.
Nov 12, 2019
Asset Light, Free-Cash-Flow Generating Powerhouse Bookings Holding (Priceline) Remains One of Our Favorite Ideas
Image shown: Booking Holdings' equity has been a strong performer the past few years.Booking Holdings fills an important void in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio as it provides exposure to the broader global economy, while albeit cyclical, continues to hold up despite myriad threats. Bookings Holdings’ asset-light business model translates to tremendous free cash flow generation, and its balance sheet is net-cash rich, two considerations that provide a very strong foundation for our estimate of its intrinsic value, which stands at ~$2,150 (shares are trading at ~$1,900 at the time of this writing). The company does not pay a dividend.
Nov 11, 2019
High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio Holding BP Sees Cash Flow Profile Improvements Ahead
Image Source: BP plc – Third quarter 2019 earnings infographic. If you may wish to add the High Yield Dividend Newsletter to your membership, please click here.We continue to like BP as a holding in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. Rising upstream production levels, a quality downstream footprint, and reduced Gulf of Mexico oil spill-related payments will go a long way in enhancing BP’s cash flow position. Raw energy resource prices remained subdued around the globe, but that isn’t stopping BP from fully covering its organic capital expenditures and dividend payments with underlying cash flows. We would like to see BP’s gearing ratios move lower, which is the stated goal.
Nov 10, 2019
Member Question: Reaves Utility Income Fund
Image Source: Reaves Utility Income Fund, April 30. Question: Have you ever looked at Reaves Utility Income Fund (UTG)? The fund is a utility fund that uses a little bit (20%) of leverage. I have owned them for a long time and have made a good return, but I wonder going forward if I should keep them in my portfolio? Utilities are popular right now, but popularity worries me.
Nov 7, 2019
Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio Holding Realty Income Keeps Chugging Along
Image Shown: Shares of Realty Income Corporation have performed quite well over the past year, keeping recent headwinds in mind. Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Realty Income Corp posted a modest increase in its adjusted funds from operations (‘AFFO’) on a per share during its third quarter 2019 earnings report published November 4. Billing itself as “The Monthly Dividend Company” with a ~3.5% yield as of this writing, this REIT has paid out over 590 consecutive monthly dividends during its 50-year long operating history and has increased its per share payout over 100 times since going public in 1994. We caution that shares of O will continue to experience volatility as expectations of future interest rates are currently in flux.
Nov 7, 2019
Nucor Is One of the Best in a Bad Business
Image Source: Nucor Corporation - June 2019 IR Presentation. We aren’t adding Nucor to any newsletter portfolio at this time given the ongoing synchronized slowdown in global economic growth, especially on the industrial side of things, as shares of NUE already trade near our fair value estimate (and risks appeared skewed to the downside). Nucor is one of the best in the business, but business can be just downright terrible during a recession or a slow growth economy given existing overseas competition and declining North American demand in the event auto sales, construction activity, and other economic activities slow down. Geopolitical and trade events will continue to loom large over the steel industry going forward.



The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.