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Jan 30, 2023
Visa’s Q1 Fiscal 2023 Solid, Puts Up 64%+ Operating Margin
Image: Visa is a free cash flow generating powerhouse and is insulated from rising delinquency and charge offs, unlike others in the credit card space. Image Source: Visa. Visa is a capital-light entity, meaning that its capital expenditures are quite small relative to its revenue and cash flow from operations. We love these types of companies as they are able to generate a significant amount of free cash flow, which for Visa, came in at $3.92 billion during the quarter, about 49% of total revenue. Visa’s business model is so cash-rich that for every $1 generated in revenue, roughly half of that turns into free cash flow. Very few companies have the operating margin and free cash flow profile as that of Visa, and we remain huge fans of this Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding. Shares yield 0.8%. Jan 28, 2023
We Don’t Think Intel Will Spoil the Tech Rally
Image Shown: The Invesco QQQ ETF has broken through its technical downtrend, and we don’t think Intel’s poor outlook will derail this tech rally. Image Source: TradingView. Intel no longer is the bellwether it once was. Its market capitalization has dwindled significantly in recent years and now stands at ~116.5 billion, lower than Advanced Micro Devices' market capitalization of ~$121.6 billion, Texas Instruments' market capitalization of ~$158.8 billion, and Nvidia’s market capitalization of ~$501 billion. Taiwan Semiconductor has a market capitalization of ~$431 billion, while ASML Holding has a market capitalization of ~$268 billion. Intel no longer is what it once was, and as such, we don’t think its poor and borderline shocking outlook will derail a tech rally that could have significant legs. We still like these markets, and we don’t think Intel will spoil the party. Jan 27, 2023
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 27
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Jan 26, 2023
Market-Cap Weighted S&P 500 Breaks Out; Have We Already Seen the Bottom?
Image: The market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY) has broken through its downtrend. The markets could be headed meaningfully higher. Image Source: TradingView. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 has broken out of the technical downtrend that defined 2022 following the equal-weight breakout that preceded it. The pace of inflation looks like it peaked in June 2022, and while myriad risks to both the economy and stock market remain, fourth-quarter 2022 earnings season is shaping up better than feared. We maintain our view that the markets remain at critical technical levels, and we continue to monitor earnings season and technical developments closely. Jan 25, 2023
Microsoft Is Betting Big on Artificial Intelligence (AI); Fiscal Q2 Shows Meager Revenue Growth, Weaker Cash Flow Generation
Image: Microsoft believes artificial intelligence (AI) will be the next platform wave, and the company is going full steam ahead to incorporate AI across its business systems. Image Source: Microsoft. “The age of AI is upon us and Microsoft is powering it. We are witnessing non-linear improvements in capability of foundation models, which we are making available as platforms. And as customers select their cloud providers and invest in new workloads, we are well positioned to capture that opportunity as a leader in AI. We have the most powerful AI supercomputing infrastructure in the cloud. It’s being used by customers and partners like OpenAI to train state-of-the-art models and services, including ChatGPT.” – Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella (January 24, 2023) Jan 24, 2023
Manpower Group’s Massive Free Cash Flow Yield Facing Some Pressures; Shares Have Dividend Yield of ~3%
Image: Manpower Group is a tremendous generator of free cash flow, though performance can be lumpy at times. Image Source: Manpower Group. Manpower Group has been acquisitive and is facing increased competition of late, but the company’s financials, particularly its free cash flow generation, remain quite attractive. The firm continues to buy back stock at a nice clip, too, as it pays its attractive semi-annual dividend of $1.36 per share. Though its free cash flow yield will face some pressure using pending 2022 results, Manpower Group could be an idea for investors seeking equities with outsized free cash flow yields in this market, in our view. We expect to fine-tune our assumptions within our discounted cash-flow model once the company’s fourth-quarter results are released in the coming weeks, but very few non-energy firms have such a strong normalized free cash flow yield as that of Manpower Group. Jan 22, 2023
What So-Called Statistical “Value Premium?”
Image: The iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF has outperformed the iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF by nearly 250 percentage points over the past two decades. Image Source: TradingView. This article shows that there may be hundreds, if not thousands, of ways to measure “value” versus “growth,” and different time horizons can be used to tell different stories about “value” versus “growth," but we think a 20-year horizon using the IWD versus the IWF is a great example of why relying blindly on empirical, evidence-based analysis within backtests employing realized historical data can be quite painful. Whatever one believes, however, the intelligent investor shouldn’t be surprised by any of the findings in this article. In the field of finance, there’s just not much substance behind empirical, evidence-based, backtests that are based solely on realized historical data, in our view, when markets themselves are in (large) part a function of future expectations of “coupons,” as Warren Buffett explains. Jan 20, 2023
Energy Pipelines: What a Difference A Few Years Have Made!
Image: Midstream energy companies have significantly improved their free cash coverage of their payouts in recent years. We’ve taken note. Source: Relevant 10-Q filings. We can hardly believe how much better things are looking for midstream pipeline companies these days, particularly as it relates to free cash flow coverage of their payouts, but also as it relates to improved financial transparency. Many midstream MLPs continue to be saddled with huge net debt positions, but what a difference a few years have made! Capital discipline is making their dividends/distributions incrementally more attractive, and we’ve taken note. Jan 20, 2023
Why Are the Dividends of REITs So Risky?
REITs, as measured by the Vanguard ETF (VNQ), have generated a total return of 39.5% since the beginning of 2015 through the end of 2022, an eight-year period that has translated into a measly compound annual return of just 4.25%. This compares to a total return of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) of 116.3%, which translates into a compound annual return of 10.1% over the same time period. Not only have REITs underperformed terribly during the past 8 years, but there have been more than 100 dividend cuts by REITs over this time period, too. REITs just aren’t what some make them out to be. Be careful. Jan 19, 2023
Consumers Feeling the Pinch; S&P 500 Bounces Off Technical Resistance; Elasticities Breaking Down for Staples Stocks
Image: The S&P 500 has bounced right off its technical resistance and will likely test 3,400, in our view. Image Source: TradingView. Things continue to deteriorate across the broader U.S. economy, but it's worth reiterating that the economy is not the stock market. The labor markets remain strong, but we continue to hear of layoffs across Silicon Valley, consumers are working through their excess savings built up during the pandemic, while net charge offs are expected to double in 2023 as credit quality deteriorates. Consumer staples names may be struggling to make elasticities work of late in light of the weakness in operating income in P&G’s calendar fourth-quarter 2022 results. Consumers are finding ways to trade down to private-label products. The S&P 500 has bounced right off its technical resistance, and we could test 3,400 during the year on the index. We remain bullish on stocks in the long run, however.
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