Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 8, 2019

ConocoPhillips Pushes Through a Big Dividend Increase, “Emerging” Play Is a Dud
Image Shown: Shares of ConocoPhillips traded modestly higher on October 7 after announcing a significant dividend increase and plans for additional share buybacks in 2020. However, please note ConocoPhillips is still trading far below where it was at the start of 2019 as an abundance of supplies combined with deteriorating macroeconomic conditions to weigh negatively on expected future raw energy resource pricing. Our fair value estimate for ConocoPhillips stands at $67 per share, well above where COP is trading as of this writing. However, ConocoPhillips’ Valuentum Buying Index stands at 3 given its weak technical performance and other factors (the upstream industry is a tough one to operate in).

Oct 7, 2019

General Motors and the Union Strike!
Image Source: General Motors Company – IR Presentation. A holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios, shares of General Motors have come under pressure over the past month from the ongoing strike that involves roughly 46,000-48,000 of its workers (primarily in the US). Our fair value estimate for shares of General Motors stands at $48 per share, well above where GM is trading at as of this writing. We continue to like the name and will be monitoring ongoing UAW-GM talks very closely going forward. Shares of GM yield 4.4% as of this writing.

Oct 4, 2019

PepsiCo Posts Solid Quarterly Report, Targets Powerful Long-Term Growth Trends
On October 3, PepsiCo reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2019 (12 week period ended September 7) that were positively received by the market as the beverage and snack company beat both consensus top and bottom line estimates. PepsiCo still has its eyes on the ball in the face of exogenous shocks (i.e. the US-China trade war and the potential for an EU-US trade war) as management targets secular growth trends in emerging and developing markets, but we still think the company’s valuation is stretched after its impressive year-to-date rally. Shares of PEP yield ~2.7% as of this writing.

Oct 3, 2019

Competition Heats Up in the Medical Robotics Space
Image Source: Intuitive Surgical Inc – IR Presentation. Competition is heating up in the medical robotics space, an area of the medical device industry Intuitive Surgical is a clear leader in with its Da Vinci system installed in ~5,000 hospitals and other medical centers around the world (approximately 60% of Intuitive Surgical’s installed base is in the US). Medtronic PLC seeks to launch its own robot-assisted surgery device for soft tissue surgeries, aimed not at stealing market share from Intuitive Surgical’s existing customers (no easy feat given that the upfront cost of ~$0.5-$2.0 million per Da Vinci system on top of needing to retrain surgeons on how to use a new system) but winning over new customers that have yet to adopt medical robotics systems like the Da Vinci. Medtronic’s new offering isn’t expected until 2021 at the earliest and the company plans to utilize the same business model as Intuitive Surgical given the success the market leader has had with winning over recurring business.

Oct 2, 2019

Zimmer Biomet’s Near-Term Outlook Is Less Rosy Than Management Would Have You Believe
Shares of Zimmer Biomet are trading on lofty expectations and investors may be in for a shock should Zimmer Biomet continue to underperform during the second half of 2019. Foreign currency headwinds continue to grow as seen through the strength of the US Dollar Index during the third quarter of 2019. We like Zimmer Biomet’s deleveraging activities but think its share price has gotten ahead of itself given these rising headwinds, lack of top line growth, and deteriorating net operating cash flows. We are staying away from Zimmer Biomet.

Oct 1, 2019

Carvana Seeks to Disrupt an Enormous Market
Image Source: Carvana Co. – IR Presentation. Carvana seeks to disrupt the used car and used light truck market in the United States as a leading e-commerce platform for used automobile sales. Perhaps best known for its “car vending machines” that are located in key metropolitan areas across the US, Carvana wants to fundamentally transform the way consumers buy, sell, and ultimately ascertain the proper value for used automobiles. Unlike more recent IPOs of high flying companies with absolutely no chance of becoming profitable, Carvana appears to have a scalable business model. For the established companies in this arena, we caution that Carvana may one day represent a serious competitive threat.

Sep 27, 2019

Alert -- Chinese Stocks Hit the Skids
Image Source: Michael Vadon. We don’t think US and China are anywhere close to any sort of meaningful trade agreement, regardless of what you hear from the White House. The latest move in this high-stakes trade war by the US may be to de-list Chinese stocks. This actually happening seems surreal given the implications on U.S. investors, but given weakness in US-listed Chinese names, the market is factoring in some probability of this occurring.

Sep 26, 2019

Hold ‘em or Fold ‘em?
Let’s talk Cardinal Health, Hanesbrands, Ford and Verint in this piece. Our best ideas are ideas in the newsletter portfolios. Unlike other widely followed strategies, the Valuentum strategy likes to capture the entire pricing cycle on an idea. We don’t “operate” in ideas only below the ‘undervalued’ line, but we like to let our winners run to when they are overvalued and showing signs of technical/momentum deterioration.

Sep 26, 2019

Nike Posts a Solid Quarter and Issues Strong Guidance
Image Shown: Shares of Nike Inc pop on September 25 after reporting a strong first quarter for fiscal 2020 and issuing favorable guidance for the full fiscal year.Nike reported earnings for the first quarter of its fiscal 2020 (ended August 31) on September 24 and investors clearly liked what they saw. The firm has been performing quite well given foreign currency headwinds and the ongoing US-China trade war, and it’s clear that hasn’t undermined core demand for its popular sportswear and equipment products. We are still staying on the sidelines given how shares of NKE are richly valued, in our view.

Sep 25, 2019

Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Holding PayPal Can Thrive in a Post-eBay World
Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc -- IR Presentation. We continue to like Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding PayPal Holdings as a way to gain exposure to the very attractive payment processing and financial technology industry, complementing our top-weighted Visa holding. PayPal can do more than just survive in a post-eBay world, it can thrive.