Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jun 28, 2025

General Mills’ Top Priority Is to Restore Volume-Driven Organic Sales Growth
Image: General Mills’ shares have been under pressure as of late. On June 25, General Mills reported mixed fiscal fourth quarter results with revenue coming up short of forecasts, but non-GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus estimate. In the fourth quarter, net sales dropped 3% driven by lower pound volume and unfavorable net price realization and mix, while organic sales were also down 3%, in line with expectations. Adjusted gross margin was down 220 basis points. Adjusted operating profit of $622 million was down 22% in constant currency, while its adjusted operating profit margin fell 330 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share came in at $0.74, which was down 27% in constant currency.

Jun 25, 2025

Exxon Mobil’s Shares Have Been Choppy of Late
Image: Exxon Mobil’s shares have been choppy of late. Exxon Mobil continues to be shareholder friendly while it exercises cost discipline. Shareholder distributions in the quarter totaled $9.1 billion, consisting of $4.3 billion of dividends and $4.8 billion of share repurchases. The oil and gas giant has now achieved $12.7 billion of cumulative structural cost savings versus 2019, with $0.6 billion of cost savings achieved during the quarter. Management expects to deliver $18 billion of cumulative savings through the end of 2030 versus 2019. Free cash flow in the quarter was $8.84 billion, and the company ended the quarter with industry-leading debt-to-capital and net-debt-to-capital ratios. We like Exxon Mobil as energy exposure in a diversified portfolio, but we don’t include shares in any newsletter portfolio at this time. Shares yield 3.5% at the time of this writing.

Jun 22, 2025

J.M. Smucker Sets Fiscal 2026 Earnings Outlook Below Consensus
Image: J.M. Smucker’s shares have been under pressure of late. Looking to its fiscal year 2026 outlook, J.M. Smucker’s net sales are targeted to increase 2%-4% with adjusted earnings per share in the range of $8.50-$9.50 versus consensus of $10.25 per share. Comparable net sales are expected to increase approximately 3.5%-5.5%, which excludes noncomparable sales in the prior year related to the divestitures of the Voortman business and certain Sweet Baked Snacks value brands. Free cash flow is targeted at $875 million for the year, considering capital expenditures of $325 million. Shares yield 4.5% at the time of this writing.

Jun 21, 2025

Realty Income’s Monthly Dividend Is Durable
Image Source: Realty Income. Looking to 2025, Realty Income largely reiterated its prior guidance, with the exception of net income per share being lowered to the range of $1.40-$1.46 from $1.52-$1.58 previously. Adjusted funds from operations was reiterated in the range of $4.22-$4.28 per share for the year with same store rent growth of approximately 1%. Occupancy is targeted at over 98% while investment volume is expected to be approximately $4 billion. We like the durability of Realty Income’s monthly dividend, with shares yielding 5.7% at the time of this writing.

May 22, 2025

Target Navigating a Highly Challenging Environment
Image Source: TradingView. Looking to fiscal 2025, Target expects a low-single digit decline in sales and adjusted earnings per share between $7.00-$9.00, when excluding gains from litigation settlements in the first quarter. Target’s results are consistent with an entity that is experiencing macroeconomic and competitive challenges. Walmart and Costco are performing much better than Target, and we don’t expect this to change anytime soon. Target ended the quarter with $2.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents against short- and long-term debt of $15.5 billion. Shares are trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate.

May 19, 2025

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now
All told, we think these three names are ripe for the picking. UnitedHealth Group has clearly plummeted on bad headline news, while the market is not giving Nvidia enough credit for the sustainability of its technology. Alphabet is being weighed down by antitrust issues and the concern that artificial intelligence will permanently alter its business model, which we believe will not happen anytime soon, if at all. All three ideas are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we include a diversified portfolio of ideas for members to consider. Happy investing!

May 15, 2025

Dick’s Sporting Goods to Acquire Foot Locker
Image: Dick’s Sporting Goods’ shares sold off on its announcement that it would acquire Foot Locker. On May 15, Dick’s Sporting Goods announced that it would acquire Foot Locker in a transaction that implies an equity value of $2.4 billion and enterprise value of $2.5 billion. Dick’s intends to finance the acquisition through a combination of cash on hand and new debt and is expected to close in the second half of 2025. Dick’s intends to operate Foot Locker as a standalone business unit within its portfolio, while it maintains the Foot Locker brands. Dick’s also released preliminary first quarter results, showcasing comparable store sales growth of 4.5% and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share of $3.37. The ongoing strength in its business positions it well to gobble up Foot Locker. The deal will allow Dick’s to serve consumers in new locations in the U.S., while also expanding internationally for the first time. The combined entity will benefit from learnings from Dick’s House of Sport and Foot Locker’s Reimagined Concept stores and serve as a stronger partner for key brands, offering multiple platforms for both established and emerging partners. Dick’s expects the transaction to be accretive to EPS in the first full fiscal year post-close and to deliver between $100-$125 million in cost synergies. Our $229 per share fair value estimate for Dick’s remains unchanged at this time.

May 12, 2025

Albemarle Continues to Navigate a Low Lithium Price Environment
Image Source: TradingView. Albemarle’s cash flow from operations in the quarter came in at $545 million, which included a $350 million customer prepayment. The firm reiterated its view that it has line of sight to breakeven free cash flow assuming current lithium pricing. Albemarle also maintained its full-year 2025 outlook considerations. At year-end 2024 average lithium market price of $9/kg LCE, net sales are targeted in the range of $4.9-$5.2 billion, with adjusted EBITDA in the range of $0.8-$1.0 billion. Though Albemarle continues to struggle with a low lithium price environment, we were encouraged by commentary regarding free cash flow, and the stock remains an idea in the ESG Newsletter portfolio.

May 9, 2025

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of May 9
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

May 6, 2025

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far
Shortly after Trump's Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500, for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends. A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if a full US/China trade agreement won't be completed in the near term, as full-scale trade deals take time to mold. Thus far, we have been impressed by earnings this season, particularly by the Magnificent 7.