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Feb 21, 2025
Walmart’s Earnings Outlook Falls Short of Expectations
Image Source: Walmart. Walmart ended its fiscal year with cash and cash equivalents of $9.0 billion and total debt of $45.8 billion. Operating cash flow for fiscal 2025 was $36.4 billion, an increase of $0.7 billion from last year, while free cash flow remained robust at $12.7 billion. Looking to the first quarter of fiscal 2026, net sales are expected to increase 3%-4%, while adjusted operating income is expected to advance 0.5%-2%, with adjusted earnings per share targeted in the range of $0.57-$0.58, below the $0.65 consensus estimate. For all of fiscal 2026, net sales are anticipated to increase 3%-4%, with adjusted operating income expected to increase 3.5%-5.5%. Adjusted earnings per share is targeted in the range of $2.50-$2.60 for the full year (consensus was at $2.76), inclusive of a $0.05 headwind from currency. Shares yield 0.9%. Feb 21, 2025
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 21
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Feb 11, 2025
Vertex Pharma Is One of Our Favorite Biotechs
Image: Vertex Pharma has performed quite well since the beginning of 2023. Looking to 2025, Vertex expects total revenue of $11.75-$12 billion, which includes expectations for continued growth in its cystic fibrosis portfolio, “including the U.S. launch of ALYFTREK, as well as continued uptake of CASGEVY in multiple regions; and early contributions from the launch of JOURNAVX." Cash and total marketable securities as of the end of last year were $11.2 billion, compared to $13.7 billion at the end of 2023 due to the cash consideration paid to acquire Alpine and share buybacks. Vertex had no traditional debt. We continue to like Vertex Pharma as a holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Feb 6, 2025
Chipotle's Long-term Growth Prospects Are Impressive
Image Source: Valuentum. During the fourth quarter of 2024, Chipotle bought back ~$330 million of stock, and as of the end of last year, the company had $1 billion remaining available under share repurchase authorizations. Looking to 2025, management expects full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low to mid-single digit range and plans for 315-345 new company-owned restaurant openings with over 80% having a Chipotlane. At the end of 2024, Chipotle had 3,746 total restaurants, and the firm is targeting as many as 7,000 restaurants in North America alone. We like Chipotle’s long-term growth potential, and the firm remains a holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Feb 4, 2025
Tesla Remains a Net Cash Rich, Free Cash Flow Generating Powerhouse
Image: Tesla continues to attack costs with average cost of goods sold per vehicle reaching an all-time low in the fourth quarter of 2024. Image Source: Tesla. In the fourth quarter, Model 3/Y production fell 8% on a year-over-year basis, while other models production advanced 25%. Model 3/Y deliveries increased 2%, while other models deliveries advanced 3%. Tesla’s quarterly net cash provided by operating activities increased 10%, to $4.8 billion, while capital spending increased 21%, to $2.8 billion, resulting in free cash flow of $2.03 billion, down 2% on a year-over-year basis. Free cash flow for the full year 2024 was $3.58 billion, down 18% on a year-over-year basis. Tesla ended the calendar year with $36.6 billion in cash, cash equivalents and investments. Though free cash flow faced pressure during 2024, the company remains a net cash rich, free-cash-flow generating powerhouse. Feb 1, 2025
IBM’s Generative AI Book of Business Doing Well
Image Source: TradingView. For the full year 2024, IBM generated net cash from operating activities, excluding IBM financing receivables, of $13.9 billion and hauled in $12.7 billion in free cash flow for the year, up $1.5 billion, and exceeding dividends paid of $6.1 billion. IBM ended the fourth quarter with $14.8 billion in cash and marketable securities, and debt, including IBM Financing debt of $12.1 billion, totaled $55 billion, down $1.6 billion from the end of 2023. For full year 2025, IBM expects full-year constant currency revenue growth of at least 5% and free cash flow of $13.5 billion for the full year, both measures exceeding the consensus forecast. Shares of IBM yield 2.6% at the time of this writing. Jan 31, 2025
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 31
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Jan 29, 2025
Lockheed Martin’s Earnings Impacted by Classified Program Losses
Image Source: Lockheed Martin. Looking to 2025, Lockheed Martin expects revenue in the range of $73.75-$74.75 billion, in line with the consensus forecast of $74.1 billion, business segment operating profit of $8.1-$8.2 billion, while diluted earnings per share is targeted in the range of $27-$27.30, below the consensus forecast of $27.94. Cash flow from operations is expected in the range of $8.5-$8.7 billion in 2025, while free cash flow is expected in the range of $6.6-$6.8 billion, after roughly $1.9 billion in capital spending. Shares yield 2.9% at the time of this writing. Jan 22, 2025
Netflix Records Biggest Quarter of Net Adds in Its History
Image Source: Netflix. Looking to 2025, Netflix expects revenue to be between $43.5-$44.5 billion (12%-14% year-over-year growth), up $500 million from its prior forecast (despite foreign currency headwinds) and an operating margin of 29%, up one percentage point from its prior forecast and two percentage points higher than the 27% operating margin in 2024. Management noted that the return in 2025 of its biggest shows (Squid Game, Wednesday and Stranger Things) gives it optimism heading into the new year.
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Image: Domino’s shares have advanced nicely since the beginning of 2023. For fiscal 2024, net cash provided by operating activities increased 5.8% on a year-over-year basis, while capital expenditures expanded 7.1%, resulting in free cash flow growth of 5.5%, to $512 million. The company experienced global net store growth of 775 for fiscal 2024, and we continue to like Domino’s future growth prospects. During the fourth quarter, the company repurchased a total of $112 million in stock, and as of December 29, had total remaining buyback authorization of $814.3 million. We like Domino’s long-term picture and include the firm as a holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.