Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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The TJX Companies Raises Fiscal 2026 Outlook
Image Source: TradingView. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, The TJX Companies continues to plan for consolidated comparable sales growth to be 2%-3%, pretax profit margin in the range of 11.7%-11.8%, and diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $1.33-$1.36. For the full year fiscal 2026, the company is now expecting consolidated comparable sales growth of 4%, a pretax profit margin outlook of 11.6% -- up 0.1% versus the prior outlook -- and diluted earnings per share in the range of $4.63-$4.66, representing a 9% increase from the prior year’s mark of $4.26.

Dick’s Sporting Goods Has Lots of Work to Do Following Its Acquisition of Foot Locker
Image Source: TradingView. For the 39 weeks ended November 1, Dick’s Sporting Goods bought back $299 million of shares, while it paid $306 million in dividends. The company ended the quarter with long-term debt and financing lease obligations of $1.9 billion against a cash balance of $821 million. Net inventories were up 51% year-over-year, to $5.64 billion. For the DICK’S Business, net sales are expected to be between $13.95-$14 billion in 2025, with earnings per share in the range of $14.25-$14.55, the $14.40 midpoint slightly below consensus forecast of $14.48 per share. Comparable store sales are targeted to be between 3.5%-4% for the year, while management expects to spend approximately $1 billion in capital expenditures on a net basis. We continue to like Dick’s Sporting Goods as a strong dividend growth idea. Shares yield 2.3% at the time of this writing.

Walmart Delivers Another Strong Quarter
Image Source: Walmart. Walmart’s operating cash flow came in at $27.5 billion in the third quarter, an increase of $4.5 billion from last year’s tally. Free cash flow was $8.8 billion in the quarter, an increase of $2.6 billion from the same period a year ago. Year-to-date, Walmart repurchased 73.5 million shares for roughly $7 billion. Cash and cash equivalents came in at $10.6 billion, with total debt of $53.1 billion. At the end of the quarter, inventory totaled $65.4 billion, an increase of $2.1 billion or 3.2%. Looking to all of fiscal year 2026, Walmart raised its outlook for growth in net sales to the range of 4.8%-5.1% and adjusted operating income to the range of 4.8%-5.5%, both in constant currency. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to be between $2.58-$2.63, which includes a currency headwind of a penny or two. Shares yield 0.9% at the time of this writing.

McDonald’s Sees Weakness from Lower-Income Consumers
Image Source: Valuentum. In the quarter, McDonald’s consolidated operating income increased 5% (3% in constant currencies). Excluding certain one-time items, adjusted consolidated operating income increased 3% (1% in constant currencies). Diluted earnings per share for the quarter was $3.18, up 2% (flat in constant currencies). Excluding one-time items, however, adjusted diluted earnings per share was flat at $3.22 (a decrease of 1% in constant currencies). McDonald’s is benefiting from higher income consumers trading down, while it faces weakness from the lower-income cohort. Shares look fairly valued on the basis of our discounted cash-flow process.

Alphabet Remains a Net-Cash-Rich, Free-Cash-Flow Generating Powerhouse
Image: Alphabet’s revenues eclipsed $100 billion in the quarter. In the quarter, Alphabet generated $48.41 billion in cash from operations and spent $23.95 billion in property and equipment, resulting in free cash flow of $24.46 billion. Year-to-date, cash from operations was $112.3 billion, while the company spent $63.6 billion in property and equipment, resulting in free cash flow of $48.7 billion. Total cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities was $98.5 billion at the end of the quarter, versus $21.6 billion in long-term debt. The company pays a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share. Looking to all of 2025, Alphabet expects capital expenditures in the range of $91-$93 billion. Even in the face of higher capital spending, Alphabet remains a net-cash-rich, free-cash-flow generating powerhouse. We continue to like shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Your Role as a Choice Architect
Image: Impact Hub Global Network. Richard Thaler in his groundbreaking book Nudge, co-written with Cass Sunstein, talked about the role of the choice architect. A choice architect is basically someone or some organization that has the responsibility for organizing the context and content in which people make decisions. At Valuentum, we can never provide personalized buy/sell advice, but in providing publishing services, we've opted for the healthy option for members, and that sometimes means you won't find a large selection of dessert options. This isn't a shortcoming of our service (i.e. we know desserts are tempting), but rather a key positive attribute. As we've shown time and time again, you don't need to look far to beat the market return (or, by comparison, to have a healthy diet). If something is not on the menu at Valuentum, it means the chef has something better cooking in the kitchen. Here's to your long-term financial health!

IBM Raises Full-Year Revenue Growth and Free Cash Flow Outlook
Image Source: TradingView. Looking to full-year 2025 expectations, IBM now expects constant currency revenue growth of more than 5%, with free cash flow now expected to be about $14 billion. IBM ended the third quarter with $14.9 billion of cash and marketable securities, up $0.1 billion from year-end 2024. Debt, including IBM Financing debt of $11.3 billion, totaled $63.1 billion, up $8.1 billion year-to-date. IBM continues to pay a regularly quarterly dividend of $1.68 per common share and has paid consecutive quarterly dividends every year since 1916. IBM is one that we’re watching closely for the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, but we remain on the sidelines at this time. Shares yield 2.3% at the time of this writing.

Tesla Faces Earnings and Margin Pressure But Free Cash Flow Soars
Image Source: Tesla. Tesla’s cash flow from operations was roughly flat year-over-year at $6.24 billion and the company slowed capital spending to $2.25 billion, resulting in free cash flow of nearly $4 billion in the quarter. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $41.65 billion at the end of the quarter versus $7.7 billion in debt and finance leases, resulting in a net cash position of nearly $34 billion. Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles in the quarter, up 7%, buoyed by a pull-forward in demand from the expiration of the $7,500 government tax credit. Though fourth quarter results may be pressured, the company remains a net cash rich, free cash flow generating powerhouse. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $345 per share, however, well below where shares are currently trading.

Philip Morris’ Smoke-Free Portfolio Continues to Outperform
Image Source: Philip Morris. Philip Morris’ work to continue to grow its smoke-free business (SFB) is bearing fruit. Its SFB now accounts for 41% of total net revenues, up 2.9 percentage points from last year’s quarter. In the quarter, the company’s SFB experienced net revenue growth of 17.7% (13.9% organically) with gross profit increasing 19.5% (14.8% organically). We continue to like Philip Morris’ oral SFB, which increased 16.9% in pouch or pouch equivalents (20.2% in cans), fueled by nicotine pouches. In the U.S., for example, its nicotine pouch product line-up ZYN accelerated growth to 39% in the third quarter. Philip Morris recently increased its regular quarterly dividend by 8.9%, to $1.47 per share, or annualized $5.88 per share. Looking to 2025, net revenue is expected to grow 6%-8% on an organic basis and adjusted diluted earnings per share, excluding currency, is targeted in the range of $7.36-$7.46, up from $6.57 in 2024, up 12.8% year-over-year at the midpoint. Shares yield 3.7% at the time of this writing.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of October 17
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.