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Feb 4, 2025
Tesla Remains a Net Cash Rich, Free Cash Flow Generating Powerhouse
Image: Tesla continues to attack costs with average cost of goods sold per vehicle reaching an all-time low in the fourth quarter of 2024. Image Source: Tesla. In the fourth quarter, Model 3/Y production fell 8% on a year-over-year basis, while other models production advanced 25%. Model 3/Y deliveries increased 2%, while other models deliveries advanced 3%. Tesla’s quarterly net cash provided by operating activities increased 10%, to $4.8 billion, while capital spending increased 21%, to $2.8 billion, resulting in free cash flow of $2.03 billion, down 2% on a year-over-year basis. Free cash flow for the full year 2024 was $3.58 billion, down 18% on a year-over-year basis. Tesla ended the calendar year with $36.6 billion in cash, cash equivalents and investments. Though free cash flow faced pressure during 2024, the company remains a net cash rich, free-cash-flow generating powerhouse. Feb 1, 2025
IBM’s Generative AI Book of Business Doing Well
Image Source: TradingView. For the full year 2024, IBM generated net cash from operating activities, excluding IBM financing receivables, of $13.9 billion and hauled in $12.7 billion in free cash flow for the year, up $1.5 billion, and exceeding dividends paid of $6.1 billion. IBM ended the fourth quarter with $14.8 billion in cash and marketable securities, and debt, including IBM Financing debt of $12.1 billion, totaled $55 billion, down $1.6 billion from the end of 2023. For full year 2025, IBM expects full-year constant currency revenue growth of at least 5% and free cash flow of $13.5 billion for the full year, both measures exceeding the consensus forecast. Shares of IBM yield 2.6% at the time of this writing. Jan 31, 2025
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 31
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Jan 29, 2025
Lockheed Martin’s Earnings Impacted by Classified Program Losses
Image Source: Lockheed Martin. Looking to 2025, Lockheed Martin expects revenue in the range of $73.75-$74.75 billion, in line with the consensus forecast of $74.1 billion, business segment operating profit of $8.1-$8.2 billion, while diluted earnings per share is targeted in the range of $27-$27.30, below the consensus forecast of $27.94. Cash flow from operations is expected in the range of $8.5-$8.7 billion in 2025, while free cash flow is expected in the range of $6.6-$6.8 billion, after roughly $1.9 billion in capital spending. Shares yield 2.9% at the time of this writing. Jan 22, 2025
Netflix Records Biggest Quarter of Net Adds in Its History
Image Source: Netflix. Looking to 2025, Netflix expects revenue to be between $43.5-$44.5 billion (12%-14% year-over-year growth), up $500 million from its prior forecast (despite foreign currency headwinds) and an operating margin of 29%, up one percentage point from its prior forecast and two percentage points higher than the 27% operating margin in 2024. Management noted that the return in 2025 of its biggest shows (Squid Game, Wednesday and Stranger Things) gives it optimism heading into the new year. Jan 15, 2025
Bank Earnings Roundup: C, WFC, GS, JPM
Image Source: Hakan Dahlstrom. Citigroup launches a new, multi-year program to repurchase $20 billion in stock, Wells Fargo puts up strong earnings growth in the fourth quarter, Goldman Sachs issued a blockbuster fourth quarter report, while JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns of inflation and geopolitical risks. Jan 5, 2025
Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating
Image shown: An examination of the problem that might arise by focusing exclusively on companies that have economic moats, or sustainable and durable competitive advantages.Without an economic castle, an economic moat doesn’t matter. Let's examine Valuentum's Economic Castle™ rating. Dec 29, 2024
How Does 37% Sound?
Image: The Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG) is up more than 37% so far in 2024. So what’s the playbook for 2025? You can probably guess that I think large cap growth and big cap tech will continue to lead the markets to new heights. 2024 was a boring year, if a 37% return can be considered boring for large cap growth. Frankly, with the market focusing on macro data and the Fed during 2024, there wasn’t much material to write about. We all already know the story: Inflation is under control, the job market remains healthy, the Fed is cutting, and artificial intelligence will be the name of the game this decade. Dec 27, 2024
Alert: Changes to the Newsletter Portfolios
Image Source: Mike Cohen cc by 2.0. We are making some changes to the newsletter portfolios. We continue to believe that large cap growth and big cap tech is the place to be, and we’ll be further tilting the portfolios in that direction. Dec 13, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of December 13
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
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