Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Dick’s Sporting Goods to Acquire Foot Locker
Image: Dick’s Sporting Goods’ shares sold off on its announcement that it would acquire Foot Locker. On May 15, Dick’s Sporting Goods announced that it would acquire Foot Locker in a transaction that implies an equity value of $2.4 billion and enterprise value of $2.5 billion. Dick’s intends to finance the acquisition through a combination of cash on hand and new debt and is expected to close in the second half of 2025. Dick’s intends to operate Foot Locker as a standalone business unit within its portfolio, while it maintains the Foot Locker brands. Dick’s also released preliminary first quarter results, showcasing comparable store sales growth of 4.5% and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share of $3.37. The ongoing strength in its business positions it well to gobble up Foot Locker. The deal will allow Dick’s to serve consumers in new locations in the U.S., while also expanding internationally for the first time. The combined entity will benefit from learnings from Dick’s House of Sport and Foot Locker’s Reimagined Concept stores and serve as a stronger partner for key brands, offering multiple platforms for both established and emerging partners. Dick’s expects the transaction to be accretive to EPS in the first full fiscal year post-close and to deliver between $100-$125 million in cost synergies. Our $229 per share fair value estimate for Dick’s remains unchanged at this time.

Cisco Raises Fiscal 2025 Outlook Again
Image: Cisco put up excellent fiscal third quarter results. Looking to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Cisco’s revenue is expected to be between $14.5-$14.7 billion, with non-GAAP earnings per share targeted in the range of $0.96-$0.98. For all of fiscal 2025, revenue is expected to be in the range of $56.5-$56.7 billion (was $56-$56.5 billion) and non-GAAP earnings per share in the range of $3.77-$3.79 (was $3.68-$3.74). We continue to like Cisco as a holding in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $74 per share.

Albemarle Continues to Navigate a Low Lithium Price Environment
Image Source: TradingView. Albemarle’s cash flow from operations in the quarter came in at $545 million, which included a $350 million customer prepayment. The firm reiterated its view that it has line of sight to breakeven free cash flow assuming current lithium pricing. Albemarle also maintained its full-year 2025 outlook considerations. At year-end 2024 average lithium market price of $9/kg LCE, net sales are targeted in the range of $4.9-$5.2 billion, with adjusted EBITDA in the range of $0.8-$1.0 billion. Though Albemarle continues to struggle with a low lithium price environment, we were encouraged by commentary regarding free cash flow, and the stock remains an idea in the ESG Newsletter portfolio.

Vertex Raises Bottom End of 2025 Revenue Guidance Range
Image Source: Vertex Pharma. Vertex’s reported results were impacted by an intangible asset impairment charge of $379 million associated with VX-264, but the company’s non-GAAP net income still fell to $1.1 billion in the first quarter compared to $1.2 billion in last year’s quarter as a result of higher operating expenses. Looking to the balance of 2025, however, Vertex raised the low end of its revenue guidance range to be between $11.85-$12 billion, up from $11.75-$12 billion previously. The company ended the quarter with $11.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents and no traditional debt. Though Vertex’s first quarter results came in lower than expected, we continue to like the long term story at the company, particularly in pain management, and the stock remains key biotech exposure in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Booking Holdings' Free Cash Remains Robust
Image Source: Booking Holdings. Looking to the second quarter of 2025, Booking Holdings expects revenue growth of 10%-12% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 13%-16%. For full year 2025, on a constant currency basis, management expects gross bookings growth in the mid to high-single digits, with revenue advancing by the mid to high-single digits, too. Adjusted EBITDA is targeted for high-single-digits to low-double-digits growth, while adjusted earnings per share is targeted in the low to mid-teens. We continue to like Booking Holdings as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of May 2
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Domino’s Pizza Misses First Quarter U.S. Same Store Sales Consensus Estimate
Image Source: Domino's. Excluding foreign currency impacts, Domino’s income from operations increased 1.4% on a year-over-year basis in the quarter. Net cash provided by operating activities was $179.1 million in the quarter with the firm spending $14.7 million in capital expenditures, resulting in free cash flow of $164.4 million in the period, up 59.1% from last year’s quarter. During the first quarter of 2025, Domino’s repurchased 115,280 shares for a total of $50 million. It still has $764.3 million in remaining authorized amount for share repurchases. We continue to like the long-term picture at Domino’s, and the company remains an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of April 25
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Chipotle’s Comparable Restaurant Sales Fall in First Quarter
Image Source: Valuentum. During the first quarter, Chipotle opened 57 company-owned restaurants with 48 of them including a Chipotlane. Management noted that “Chipotlanes continue to perform well and are helping enhance guest access and convenience, as well as increase new restaurant sales, margins, and returns,” but comparable restaurant sales still faced headwinds due to lower transactions, offset in part by an increase in the average check. For 2025, management anticipates full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range and for the firm to add 315-345 new company-owned restaurants with over 80% having a Chipotlane. Though Chipotle’s first quarter results weren’t great, we continue to like its long-term story.

Philip Morris Hits Record High!
Image Source: TradingView. Looking to all of 2025, Philip Morris’ net revenue growth is targeted around 6-8% on an organic basis, with organic operating income growth to be between 10.5%-12.5%. The tobacco giant expects reported diluted earnings per share in the range of $7.01-$7.14, with adjusted diluted earnings per share targeted at $7.36-$7.49 (up 12%-14%) and adjusted diluted earnings per share, excluding currency, expected to be between $7.26-$7.39 (up 10.5%-12.5%). 2025 operating cash flow is targeted to be more than $11 billion at prevailing exchange rates, with capital expenditures of around $1.5 billion, which includes further investments in ZYN capacity in the U.S. We're huge fans of Philip Morris' stock.