Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Delta Reports Strong March Quarter; Airline Stocks are Too Risky for Our Taste
Image Source: Colin Brown. Delta’s quarter ending in March was solid, and its full year outlook was encouraging. In general, however, we don’t like airline equities. The extreme ticket price transparency creates an ultra-competitive environment, and overcapacity is always a concern. We view airlines as merely trading vehicles on the health of the global economy and the trajectory of crude oil prices. Delta is operating well, but it will never be able to escape the challenges of its industry, and for those reasons we remain on the sidelines with respect to shares.

How Well Do Enterprise-Cash-Flow-Derived Fair Value Estimates Predict Future Stock Prices? -- And Thoughts on Behavioral Valuation
 Abstract: This paper attempts to solidify the efficacy of the predictive power of fair value estimates for stocks, as derived by the discounted enterprise cash flow (free cash flow to the firm) process. The piece emphasizes the difference between share prices and estimated fair (intrinsic) values and offers an overview of the discounted enterprise cash flow model, what causes fair value estimates to change, and what drivers may be most important within the context of the discounted enterprise cash flow model. The work examines the importance of both art and science in discounted enterprise cash flow valuation, and introduces the topic of behavioral valuation. An explanation of the methods used in the study include the creation of price-to-fair value comparisons and subsequent share-price performance of companies relative to their respective price-to-fair value ratios. The study in this work measures the predictive power of fair value estimates through eight subsequent time periods, or approximately 3 years. The subsets of data are broken into “undervalued” and “overvalued” stock groupings, and the predictive power of fair value estimates is then evaluated for each category.

3 Dividend Growth Stocks for the Long Run
Image: Mike Mozart. There are many applications for the discounted cash-flow model. Not only does the tool help to derive a fair value estimate for a company, but the core drivers behind the intrinsic value calculation are also key drivers behind the health of a dividend payer. Stocks with a solid net cash position and also generate strong expected free cash flows more than their cash dividend obligations are in a much better position to grow their payouts in the future than stocks burdened by a net debt position and where their free cash flow comes up short. Apple, Microsoft and Dick’s Sporting Goods make the cut and are three of our favorite dividend growth stocks on the market today.

What Is Gold Really Worth?
Image: Gold prices have surged since 2020, and they recently hit an all-time high. What is the yellow metal really worth? Let's discuss the greater fool characteristics of the price of gold.

Geopolitical Risks Driving Crude Oil Prices Higher
Image: Crude oil prices have staged a strong advance to start 2024. Geopolitical tensions continue to be elevated as concerns grow that the war in the Middle East could further escalate, and as the war in Ukraine continues to rage on. On April 1, Israel apparently staged an attack on an Iran embassy in Syria that killed several military officials, including three senior Iranian commanders. Iran has indicated that it would retaliate, and many are speculating that the possible attack may be on Israeli soil, which would further increase global tensions. Ukraine has also been actively targeting Russian energy infrastructure, cutting into Russia’s refining capacity.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of April 5
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Gilead’s 4%+ Dividend Yield Covered Nicely with Free Cash Flow
Image: Gilead’s coverage of its dividend with free cash flow remains rock-solid. What we like about Gilead is that the company remains a very strong free cash flow generator, with the measure coming in at $7.4 billion during 2023 versus dividend payments of $3.8 billion. On a free cash flow coverage basis, Gilead 4%+ dividend yield looks rock-solid, and for this, we think investors may be wise to get paid to wait for upcoming catalysts within Gilead’s HIV and oncology pipeline.

PVH’s Weak Guidance Sends Shares Tumbling
On April 1, PVH Corp. reported better than expected fourth quarter results, but the company’s cautious outlook sent the stock tumbling. The Street didn’t like its first quarter guidance that calls for revenue to decline 11% (10% on a constant currency basis) compared to the first quarter of last year, inclusive of the reduction from the sale of its Heritage Brands women’s intimates business. Earnings per share for the first quarter is targeted to only be marginally higher and come in at $2.15 versus $2.14 in the same period of 2023, well below what the Street was looking for.

Best Buy’s Free Cash Flow Comes Up Short in Covering Dividend
Image Source: Mike Mozart. For fiscal 2024, Best Buy generated ~$1.47 billion in operating cash flow and spent $795 million in capital spending, resulting in free cash flow of $675 million, below what it paid in dividends on the year ($801 million). That didn’t stop Best Buy from upping its dividend 2%, however, and the company continues to buy back stock. Best Buy yields ~4.6% at the time of this writing, but capital spending and volatile operating cash flow are two considerations top of mind for income-oriented investors.

RTX Ends Year with Record Backlog, Shares Yield ~2.4%
Image Source: RTX. With the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas wars still raging, geopolitical tensions continue to be elevated, playing into the hands of defense contracts such as RTX. With an attractive commercial portfolio to boot, RTX is poised to continue to capitalize on both original equipment and higher-margin after-market commercial aerospace sales, too. We’re fans of RTX, and the firm looks to be moving past a costly recall associated with its Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan engines. Shares yield ~2.4% at this time.