Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Apr 7, 2022

Best Biotech Idea Vertex Pharma Outperforming Struggling Peers, Its New Treatment for Pain a Game Changer in the Fight Against the Opioid Epidemic
Image: Vertex Pharma has advanced more than 18% since the beginning of 2021, trouncing the performance of the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF by an incredible margin. The outperformance gap stands at more than 50+ percentage points at the time of this writing. We were blown away by the phase II results released March 31 at Vertex Pharma for its non-opioid, non-addictive pain killer, the NaV1.8 inhibitor VX-548, and we think the molecule has the potential to provide a solution to the widespread opioid crisis in a meaningful way. According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, tens of thousands of deaths each year are “attributed to overdosing on synthetic opioids.” The company’s phase II results for VX-548 provide “proof of concept” in order to push the study to more advanced studies, and we are highly encouraged. We also note that the long-term revenue and earnings potential for VX-548 is not included in our valuation model for Vertex Pharma and would offer pure incremental upside to our fair value estimate. VX-548 could be a game-changer in the fight against the opioid epidemic, in our view.

Apr 6, 2022

Lululemon Firing on All Cylinders; Shares Recovering
Image Shown: Shares of Lululemon Athletica Inc are recovering in the wake of the company’s recent earnings report. On March 29, Lululemon Athletica Inc reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended January 30, 2022) that matched consensus top-line estimates and beat consensus bottom-line estimates. Lululemon also announced it had initiated a new $1.0 billion stock buyback program after completing its previous program in the first quarter of fiscal 2022. The company issued favorable guidance for fiscal 2022 during its latest earnings update, which helped drive shares of LULU sharply higher during normal trading hours on March 30. Shares of LULU are up more than 20% during the past 52 weeks through the time of this writing, more than doubling the return of the S&P 500 during that time. We value shares north of $400 each at the time of this writing, revealing significant potential upside should price-to-fair value estimate convergence materialize.

Apr 4, 2022

3 Dividend Growth Ideas That Just Raised Their Payouts
Image Source: American Tower. Let’s cover the benefits of dividend growth investing and three dividend growth ideas that just raised their payouts.

Mar 30, 2022

WEC Energy Is a Solid Utility with a Nice Yield
Image Source: WEC Energy Group Inc – March 2022 IR Presentation. WEC Energy Group Inc is a holding company that owns electric and natural gas utilities in the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois), a ~60% stake in American Transmission Company (its service area is in the Upper Midwest and overlaps with the operations of WEC Energy’s other utility assets), and the merchant power firm WEC Infrastructure. WEC Energy serves roughly 4.6 million customers across its service area. Some of its electric and natural gas utilities include Upper Michigan Energy Resources Corporation, Wisconsin Public Service Corporation, Minnesota Energy Resources Corporation, Peoples Energy LLC, The Peoples Gas Light and Coke Company, North Shore Gas Company, W.E. Power, Michigan Gas Utilities, and more. The bulk of WEC Energy’s asset base is represented by regulated utility operations which have incredibly stable and predictable cash flow profiles given the regulatory environment these companies operate in.

Mar 30, 2022

Exxon Mobil Is Working on Boosting U.S. LNG Export Capacity
Image Shown: Exxon Mobil Corporation is a big player in the global LNG industry. Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – March 2022 Investor Day Presentation. Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas supplies has taken centerstage in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Members of the European Union (‘EU’) receive roughly 40% of their natural gas needs from Russia. In March 2022, the US and the EU announced an agreement covering energy security that among other things encouraged greater liquified natural gas (‘LNG’) exports from the US to the EU. Such an accord would require Europe to boost its LNG regassification capacity. Let's dig into this situation.

Mar 29, 2022

Dividend Growth Idea Newmont Surging Higher
Image Shown: Shares of dividend growth idea Newmont Corporation have surged higher since January 2020. Rising geopolitical tensions have pushed COMEX gold prices to the $1,900-$2,000 per troy ounce range as of this writing in late March 2022. We added the gold miner Newmont Corp to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio back in January 2020 to gain modest exposure to the gold industry. Shares of NEM are trading near the high end of our fair value estimate range of $78 per share as of this writing after surging ~31% over the past year. Newmont has a variable dividend policy that includes a base and variable payout. Shares of NEM yield ~2.8% on a trailing twelve month basis, and we continue to be big fans of the name.

Mar 29, 2022

Nike Holding Its Own Against Major Exogenous Shocks
Image Shown: Shares of Nike Inc are on an upward climb again after dropping significantly from November 2021 to March 2022. Nike is holding its own in the face of major exogenous headwinds. The firm’s pivot towards D2C and digital sales are having a powerful impact on its business and underlying financial performance. We appreciate that Nike is a stellar generator of shareholder value, though we caution that inflationary headwinds and supply chain hurdles loom large over its near term outlook, as does the Ukraine-Russia crisis due to rising fuel expenses and the risk that portions of the global economy (particularly developing and emerging markets) may enter a recession. We continue to be bullish on U.S. equities and the domestic economy.

Mar 25, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week March 25
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Mar 24, 2022

Public Storage Is a High-Quality Income Generation Idea
Image Shown: Public Storage, a self-storage REIT that is included as an idea in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, is a stellar cash flow generator with a bright growth outlook. We are huge fans of the self-storage REIT industry, particularly in the US, due to the ability of companies operating in this space to fully cover their total dividend obligations with their free cash flows. Image Source: Public Storage – March 2022 IR Presentation. The self-storage industry is an attractive space for investors seeking income generating opportunities, particularly real estate investment trusts (‘REITs’) with a sizable presence in the U.S. market. The self-storage REIT owns economic interests in 2,800+ self-storage properties across the U.S. Public Storage is a cash flow generating powerhouse that historically has fully covered its total dividend obligations with its free cash flows. Its promising growth outlook and strong financial position underpins the REIT’s dividend strength. Shares of PSA yield ~2.2% as of this writing.

Mar 23, 2022

Johnson & Johnson’s Outlook Improving, Steadily Putting Legal Issues Behind It
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On a price-only basis, shares of Johnson & Johnson are up ~2% year-to-date through the end of regular trading hours March 22, while the S&P 500 is down ~6% during this period. We include shares of Johnson & Johnson as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios, and we love the company's resiliency in the face of whatever challenges are thrown at it. Investors now have a much better idea of what Johnson & Johnson’s legal settlement liabilities could end up looking like as compared to where things stood a year ago, and while the pending spinoff of its consumer health operations has fundamentally altered its proposition as a straightforward dividend growth opportunity, the stock continues to hold up in an otherwise tumultuous environment. We're not counting J&J out by any means, and the stock remains a core holding in both the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.