Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 15, 2023

Cisco Puts Up Record Q1 FY 2024 Results, Outlook Hindered By Order Slowdown
Image Source: Cisco. On November 15, Cisco Systems reported strong first quarter results for its fiscal 2024, but the company surprisingly lowered its outlook for the remainder of its fiscal year on a slowdown in new orders. We’re not rushing to judgement of the company, but the revision was rather sizable, and we’ll be taking a close look at our valuation model following the report. We continue to be fans of Cisco’s intent to purchase Splunk, and there may have been some hiccups in the sales cycle as the firm works to close this strategic deal. For now, we’re giving the firm the benefit of the doubt that things will improve in the back half of its fiscal 2024. Cisco remains an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Nov 14, 2023

Cash Cow Republic Services’ ESG Initiatives Bearing Fruit
Image Source: Gabriel Langton. Republic Services remains our favorite garbage hauler. The company is a cash cow, and it continues to drive dividend growth as it buys back shares. When it reported third-quarter results on October 26, the firm showed strong adjusted earnings per share expansion, to $1.54, up from $1.34 in last year’s period. For the first nine months of the year, the firm grew cash flow from operations to ~$2.7 billion, up from ~$2.38 billion during the same period last year, driving strong adjusted free cash flow generation of ~$1.8 billion, materially higher than the ~$470 million in cash dividends it paid over the same period. The board authorized $3 billion for share repurchases, and its equity yields a very healthy ~1.4% at the time of this writing.

Nov 14, 2023

The Home Depot Delivers in Third-Quarter Fiscal 2023 Results
Image Source: Mike Mozart. On November 14, Home Depot reported third-quarter results for the period ending October 29, 2023, that were largely in-line with expectations. Though the housing market remains stagnant due to increased mortgage rates and limited supply, Home Depot continues to navigate the market well, in our view. The firm’s comparable store sales faced pressure in its fiscal third quarter, and while big-ticket, discretionary purchases may be experiencing some pressure, management noted that it continues to see strong activity with customers pursuing smaller projects. We like Home Depot as a derivative play on the housing market, and the high end of our fair value estimate stands at $344 per share.

Nov 10, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of November 10
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Nov 9, 2023

Disney’s Free Cash Flow Is Expected to Surge But A Strong Recovery Is Already Priced In
Image Source: Valuentum. On November 8, Disney reported improved fourth-quarter results for its fiscal 2023. Revenue advanced 5% on a year-over-year basis in the quarter, and the firm drove non-GAAP diluted earnings per share to $0.82 from $0.30 in the prior year period. The company’s Disney+ streaming service added 7 million core customers in the quarter, and its commentary that its streaming business would reach profitability in the fourth quarter of next fiscal year was welcome. Cost savings will be key, and the executive team expects free cash flow to grow significantly in fiscal 2024 versus the most recently reported year. All of this was great news, but a massive recovery in free cash flow is already factored into its price. Our $81 fair value estimate remains unchanged.

Nov 8, 2023

Gilead's Oncology Business Could Represent One Third of Product Revenue By 2030
Image: Gilead’s potential in oncology speaks to long-term sustainability. On November 7, Gilead Sciences reported better-than-expected third-quarter results with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share handily beating the consensus estimates. Gilead was once a market darling having cured hepatitis C, but success in this area has forced the company to reinvent itself, and it continues to make solid progress in HIV product sales and oncology (Trodelvy and Cell Therapy). We have Gilead on our radar for consideration, and the company’s dividend yield of ~3.7% pays investors to wait for its promising pipeline to flourish. We value Gilead north of $100 per share, far above where it is currently trading.

Nov 4, 2023

Booking Holdings Is a Net-Cash-Rich, Free-Cash-Flow Generating Powerhouse!
Image: Booking Holdings remains an asset-light, free-cash-flow generating powerhouse. Booking Holdings ended the September quarter with a modest net cash position. Cash and cash equivalents totaled ~$13.3 billion and short-term investments came in at $624 million, a sum that was greater than its short-term debt load of ~$1.9 billion and long-term debt of ~$11.9 billion. The company hauled in ~$6 billion in cash flow from operations during the first nine months of 2023 and only spent $251 million on property and equipment, good for significant free cash flow generation. Its free cash flow margin so far in 2023, as measured by free cash flow divided by sales, was an impressive ~35%, showcasing just how efficient Booking Holdings is in converting its top line to cold hard cash. Our $3,164 per share fair value estimate remains unchanged at this time.

Nov 3, 2023

People Love Their Starbucks
Image: Starbucks remains a strong free cash flow generator. Operational efficiencies, sales leverage and pricing strength helped drive Starbucks' GAAP operating income growth of 42.7% and non-GAAP earnings per share to $1.06 in the quarter, up 31% on a year-over-year basis. Starbucks ended its fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 with ~$3.95 billion in cash and short-term investments and short- and long-term debt of ~$15.4 billion, resulting in a net debt position on the books. Free cash flow generation remains robust at Starbucks, however, with the measure coming in at ~$3.7 billion for the fiscal year ending October 1, 2023. We’re reiterating the high end of our fair value estimate range of $120 for Starbucks’ shares.

Nov 3, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of November 3
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Nov 2, 2023

Apple Doesn’t Disappoint in Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings
On November 2, Apple put up solid results in its fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 for the period ending September 30, 2023. The company’s iPhone sales ($43.8 billion) came in in-line with Street expectations, squashing concerns about demand for its new iPhone 15. Its high-margin Services business put up a nice growth rate (+16.3%) in the period, reaching a new all-time high. Though the firm’s Mac sales didn’t impress and accounted for most of the weakness in the quarter, Apple is optimistic that the holiday season will make for a strong comeback. We don’t expect to make any changes to our fair value estimate in light of the report, which was about as expected. For the three months ended September 30, Apple’s operating income expanded to ~$27 billion from ~$24.9 billion, while net income leapt to ~$23 billion from ~$20.7 billion, translating into diluted earnings per share of $1.46 in the period, nice growth from the $1.29 per share it put up during the same quarter last year. Total cash and marketable securities stood at ~$162.1 billion versus ~$15.8 billion in short-term debt and commercial paper and ~$95.3 billion in long-term debt. Apple has a robust net cash position at the moment, and its free cash flow generation remains sound coming in at ~$99.6 billion for fiscal 2023. Very few other firms can compare with Apple’s financial wherewithal, and the company remains a top dividend growth idea to boot.