Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 11, 2024

Oracle Hits Optimistic Note in Fiscal Third Quarter
Image Source: Peter Kaminski. Oracle posted solid third-quarter fiscal 2024 results, drove nice growth across its cloud business, set an all-time record with respect to Remaining Performance Obligations, and spoke very positively (“hypergrowth”) about its Gen2 Cloud Infrastructure business. Oracle has a large net debt position due in part to its purchase of Cerner, but free cash flow of ~$8.52 billion for the first nine months of its fiscal year showcased robustness and a nice improvement on a year-over-year basis, as both operating cash flow advanced while capital spending fell. We continue to like Oracle as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Mar 11, 2024

How Some Members Use Valuentum’s Investment Services
We serve a wide variety of investors, including dividend growth investors, value investors, and pure Valuentum investors, among others. Many different types of investors and professionals use our research and financial analysis in a whole host of applications from individual stock-selection to the evaluation of closed-end funds to an overlay in a money-management setting and beyond. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio seeks to find stocks that have good value and good momentum characteristics and typically targets capital appreciation potential over a longer-term horizon. The Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio seeks to find underpriced dividend growth gems that generate strong levels of free cash flow and have pristine, fortress balance sheets, translating into excellent Valuentum Dividend Cushion ratios. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio seeks to find some of the highest-yielding stocks supported by strong credit profiles and solid business models, but not always robust traditional free cash flow. Ideas in this newsletter offer higher-yielding opportunities, but also much higher capital and income risk. We also offer a full suite of products to financial advisers (gold level) that range from a more extensive Excel-based screening tool (the DataScreener) to 'Ideas' and 'Dividend' publications that are released on a quarterly basis. Our research product includes hundreds of stock reports, fair values, fair value ranges, associated commentary, as well as dividend reports with Valuentum Dividend Cushion ratios and expected dividend growth rates. Silver and gold-level members can add the Valuentum Exclusive or additional options commentary/ideas to their plans. The Exclusive publication is a part of the institutional (platinum) level membership.

Mar 11, 2024

You Already Own Whatever Your Investment Will Pay You in Dividends
Image Source: Images Money. Stocks are generally valued on the present value of all their future free cash flows, which already include future dividend payments. A company’s dividend policy may impact an investor’s eagerness to pay a higher price for shares on the basis of a higher yield, but the dividend is a symptom of future free cash flows (and therefore intrinsic value), not the driver behind it.

Mar 10, 2024

Abercrombie & Fitch’s Mighty Comeback!
Image Source: Abercrombie & Fitch. Abercrombie & Fitch is experiencing a resurgence as the company reconnects with its target market, and the traction it has regained with its customers is quite something. The firm noted that it continues to experience strong momentum across its brand portfolio, and its long-term target is to achieve $5 billion in global sales (its sales were $4.3 billion in its most recent fiscal year). For 2024, it expects net sales to expand 4%-6%, and for its operating margin to be ~12%, up 60 basis points from the mark it reached last year. Abercrombie swung to being significantly free cash flow positive in its most recently completed fiscal year, and it ended the period with a net cash position. The company’s comeback has been nothing short of remarkable. Fickle fashion trends make the stock difficult to consider for long-term investors, however.

Mar 8, 2024

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of March 8
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Mar 8, 2024

Understanding Share Buybacks
Image shown: Buybacks aren't always positive for shareholders. An image showing when RadioShack bought back its own stock, just a few short years prior to filing for bankruptcy.Let’s explain how some share buybacks can be considered value-creating and some share buybacks can be considered value-destroying.

Mar 8, 2024

Costco’s Shares Have Surged Over the Past Year!
Image: Costco’s shares have run past the high end of our fair value estimate range. Shares look pricey at the moment. Shares of market darling Costco have had a mighty run over the past year, advancing more than 65%. The company is a social media favorite and operates at the center of the mindset of consumers, providing both convenience and bulk savings to the shopper. The high end of our fair value estimate range for the big box retailer stands at ~$749, so we can’t say shares, which closed March 7 at ~$786 per share, are a bargain. However, Costco has rewarded patient investors considerably over the past several years and beyond.

Mar 6, 2024

ESG Matters: KMB, ADM, CC
Image: Chemours stock has been pummeled recently over an accounting probe. Kimberly-Clark is facing a new lawsuit that alleges it put dangerous "PFAS" chemicals into the environment, while ADM and Chemours face serious inquiries into their accounting practices.

Mar 5, 2024

Alphabet or Microsoft in Artificial Intelligence with Respect to Search? We Like Both
Image Source: SEO. It’s very likely that, if Google search is eventually disrupted, much of the disruption would come from Microsoft given its deep pockets and existing search engine Bing. We continue to include both Alphabet and Microsoft in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio as a hedge in this regard. If any share shifts do occur away from Google search, they’ll likely accrue to Microsoft, and with both Alphabet and Microsoft large components of big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth, considering the Schwab Large Cap Growth ETF may be worthwhile. We like both Alphabet and Microsoft and view any share shifts as net neutral to our exposure in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Mar 3, 2024

Merger Mania
Image Source: Glenn Beltz. Mergers and acquisition [M&A] activity continues as the market sets new highs. Elevated borrowing costs as a result of the Fed’s aggressive rate hiking cycle in 2022 are pushing many entities to pursue all-stock transactions.