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How Well Do Enterprise-Cash-Flow-Derived Fair Value Estimates Predict Future Stock Prices? -- And Thoughts on Behavioral Valuation

publication date: Nov 12, 2017
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author/source: Valuentum Analysts

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Abstract: This paper attempts to solidify the efficacy of the predictive power of fair value estimates for stocks, as derived by the discounted enterprise cash flow (free cash flow to the firm) process. The piece emphasizes the difference between share prices and estimated fair (intrinsic) values and offers an overview of the discounted enterprise cash flow model, what causes fair value estimates to change, and what drivers may be most important within the context of the discounted enterprise cash flow model. The work examines the importance of both art and science in discounted enterprise cash flow valuation, and introduces the topic of behavioral valuation. An explanation of the methods used in the study include the creation of price-to-fair value comparisons and subsequent share-price performance of companies relative to their respective price-to-fair value ratios. The study in this work measures the predictive power of fair value estimates through eight subsequent time periods, or approximately 3 years. The subsets of data are broken into “undervalued” and “overvalued” stock groupings, and the predictive power of fair value estimates is then evaluated for each category.

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