Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jul 16, 2025

ASML Cannot Confirm Growth in 2026 at This Stage
Image: ASML's shares fell under pressure following uncertainty regarding expected 2026 performance. ASML’s second quarter results were solid, and we liked its sequential bookings growth in the quarter. The company’s revenue and gross margin guidance for the third quarter was also good, but margins look to face some pressure on a sequential basis. During the quarter, ASML repurchased around €1.4 billion worth of shares. Though we thought performance by the firm was great in the quarter, management’s commentary that it could not confirm growth in 2026 at this stage left something to be desired. We continue to be positive on ASML’s shares, nonetheless.

Jul 16, 2025

Key Comments from the Banks This Earnings Season
Image: The big banks have done well recently. Let's read through key comments from banking executives this earnings season.

Jul 16, 2025

Fastenal’s Second Quarter Results a Positive Read Through for the Broader Economy
Image Source: TradingView. Fastenal’s “manufacturing end markets outperformed primarily due to the relative strength (it is) experiencing with key account customers with significant managed spend where (its) service model and technology are particularly impactful. This disproportionately benefits manufacturing customers. The non-residential construction end market experienced growth for the first time in ten consecutive quarters. Other end market sales were favorably impacted by growth with warehousing and storage, and data center customers, which were partially offset by declining sales with resellers.” We liked Fastenal’s results, and the report is a positive read through to the broader U.S. economy.

Jul 12, 2025

Delta Air Lines Restores Financial Guidance
Image Source: TradingView. Delta’s restoration of its financial guidance is positive as it relates to financial visibility, particularly with respect to the impact tariffs may have on consumer spending for travel. As noted in its commentary, fiscal 2025 earnings per share is targeted in the range of $5.25-$6.25, with free cash flow of $3-$4 billion and gross leverage less than 2.5x. Management noted that “demand trends stabilized at levels that are flat to last year” through the quarter and that it “continued to see resilience in (its) diverse, high-margin revenue streams.” For the September quarter, Delta expects total revenue to be flat to up 4% compared to the prior year. Non-fuel unit costs are expected to be the best performance of the year in the September quarter. Delta also upped its quarterly dividend 25% beginning in the September quarter. We like Delta’s enhanced visibility in restoring its guidance, though we think there are better opportunities on the market than airlines. Shares yield 1.3% at the time of this writing.

Jul 11, 2025

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 11
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Jul 5, 2025

Constellation Brands Maintains Comparable Earnings Per Share Outlook
Image Source: Constellation Brands. On July 1, beer, wine and spirits producer Constellation Brands reported disappointing first quarter fiscal 2026 results with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share missing the consensus forecast. Comparable net sales dropped 6%, while comparable organic net sales fell 4%. Comparable operating income tumbled 11%, while comparable net income attributable to the company fell 12%. Comparable adjusted earnings before interest and taxes fell 13%, while comparable diluted net income per share dropped 10%, to $3.22. Shares yield 2.4% at the time of this writing.

Jun 28, 2025

General Mills’ Top Priority Is to Restore Volume-Driven Organic Sales Growth
Image: General Mills’ shares have been under pressure as of late. On June 25, General Mills reported mixed fiscal fourth quarter results with revenue coming up short of forecasts, but non-GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus estimate. In the fourth quarter, net sales dropped 3% driven by lower pound volume and unfavorable net price realization and mix, while organic sales were also down 3%, in line with expectations. Adjusted gross margin was down 220 basis points. Adjusted operating profit of $622 million was down 22% in constant currency, while its adjusted operating profit margin fell 330 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share came in at $0.74, which was down 27% in constant currency.

Jun 28, 2025

Nike’s Fiscal Fourth Quarter Better Than Feared
Image: Nike’s shares have been pummeled of late. On June 26, Nike reported better than expected fourth quarter fiscal 2025 results with revenue and GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus forecasts. Fiscal fourth quarter revenues were $11.1 billion, down 12% on a reported basis and 11% on a currency-neutral basis. Nike Direct revenues were down 14% on a reported and currency-neutral basis in the quarter, while wholesale revenues fell 9% on a reported and currency-neutral basis in the period. Quarterly revenues for Converse fell 26%. Gross margin declined 440 basis points in the fiscal fourth quarter, to 40.3%, while diluted earnings per share fell 86% in the quarter, to $0.14.

Jun 28, 2025

Clorox Misses Consensus Estimates in Its Fiscal Third Quarter
Image: Clorox’s shares have been under pressure more recently. Year-to-date, Clorox’s net cash provided by operations was $687 million compared to $355 million in the year-ago period, representing a 94% increase. For fiscal 2025, Clorox expects net sales to be down 1% to flat and adjusted organic sales to be up about 2%. Gross margin is now expected to be up about 150 basis points, with margin enhancement efforts more than offsetting cost inflation, high trade promotion spending, and higher costs from recently implemented tariffs. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to be between $6.95-$7.35, up 13% and 19%, respectively, and the midpoint slightly higher than consensus. Clorox ended the quarter with $2.5 billion in debt and $226 million in cash. We’re steering clear of Clorox due in part to its weak revenue performance and large net debt position. Shares yield 4.1% at the time of this writing.

Jun 25, 2025

Disney Expects Strong Earnings Growth in Fiscal 2025
Image Source: Valuentum. Looking to all of fiscal 2025, Disney expects adjusted earnings per share of $5.75, a 16% increase over 2024 levels. Cash provided by operations is targeted at $17 billion, benefiting from a $2 billion increase from the deferral of tax payments. Disney is targeting a double-digit increase in operating income for its Entertainment segment for the year, while Sports is expected to increase 18% with respect to segment operating income in fiscal 2025. Its Experiences segment is targeted for 6%-8% operating income growth for the year. We like Disney, but view shares as fairly valued at the moment. Shares yield 0.9% at the time of this writing.