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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Jun 20, 2018
Starbucks Facing New Era of Challenges?
There are core problems lurking at Starbucks, in our view, and the idea that the chain will triple the number of company-owned store closings in US markets in fiscal 2019, to 150 (from 50, on average, in prior years), is rather telling that something’s not quite right, regardless of whether it may be too-high of prices, changing consumer preferences (millennials), increasing competition (McDonald’s, Dunkin’ Donuts), oversaturation in densely-penetrated markets--or a combination of all of the above.
Jun 13, 2018
Private Equity Likely Interested in GameStop As Netflix Shocks Gaming Industry
Netflix may have taken the initial steps to enter the video-gaming market. Even as the digital streaming of games may have already signaled the death knell of GameStop’s lucrative physical used-game business, that Netflix may be moving into video games may further truncate not only GameStop’s longevity, but also have ramifications across the entire video-gaming landscape. Private equity may be interested in GameStop, nonetheless.
Jun 13, 2018
The Promise of CAR-T Therapy
Image Source: Gilead. The medical field, particularly the biotech industry, is quite innovative, and advances in medicine can help a specific target population with the ultimate gift--the gift of a better life. We’re excited by the stunning advances in the CAR-T field for the treatment for various forms of cancer that have, in the past, come with an often-bleak prognosis. We expect a shift in the advances in immune-oncology as the CAR-T revolution is in its early stages.
Jun 12, 2018
Verint Trading Near 52-Week Highs
Image Source: Verint. Simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Verint turned in a solid fiscal first quarter report June 7 as ongoing demand strength drove its top line higher. The company's transition to a more software-focused business model is expected to continue expanding margins. Verint is a unique play on cybersecurity.
Jun 11, 2018
Merck’s Dominance in Immuno-Oncology Expands Once Again
Image Source: Merck. Merck simply blew away the competition--the results are simply incredible. Keytruda is a gamechanger, and we think it will become the top-selling pharmaceutical once the patent lapses on Humira.
Jun 7, 2018
Microsoft Wins GitHub Over Alphabet
Image Source: Microsoft deal presentation. Microsoft has agreed to acquire GitHub for $7.5 billion. Competing bids may have driven the price tag higher, but Microsoft’s financial flexibility remains top-notch.
Jun 5, 2018
Fishing Trends Benefiting Many Sporting Goods Retailers
Johnson Outdoors is benefiting greatly from fishing-related sales, and such a tailwind may be helping other sporting goods retailers in the group. New store openings continue to drive Dick’s Sporting Goods’ top-line higher, but the company’s materially increased profit guidance for fiscal 2018 stole the show in its fiscal first quarter report.
Jun 5, 2018
Evercore Partners (EVR) - Fair Value Estimate: ~$130 Per Share; Dividend Cushion Ratio: 4.9
Image shown: The share-price performance of Evercore Partners since July 2017.Evercore’s financial performance in recent years has been impressive as its net revenues have grown at an 18% CAGR since 2011, adjusted earnings per share have advanced at a 22% CAGR, and operating margins have expanded by more than 6 percentage points. The company is working to sustain operating margins of 25%+ in solid M&A markets, which it anticipates will continue in the near term. We currently value shares at ~$130 each. Evercore currently registers an impressive Dividend Cushion ratio of 4.9. Shares yield ~1.8%.
Jun 4, 2018
Solar Not So Hot
Image Source: zak zak. Though First Solar stands alone as one of the stronger players in the solar space, we think the industry backdrop is among the weakest in our coverage universe. We’re huge fans of clean renewable energy but separating what we want to be a good industry like solar from an industry that actually has strong structural characteristics is a key component of being a good investor. Oftentimes, it is better to own an average company in a great industry than a good company in one of the worst industries out there.
Jun 1, 2018
The Free Cash Flow Shortfall in the Master Limited Partnership Space
With the recent acceleration of master limited partnership simplification transactions, we find it appropriate to revisit the internally-generated cash flow shortfall present throughout much of the space. The table provides a breakdown of traditional free cash flow (cash from operating activities less all capital spending) relative to distributions paid, as well as a measure of the elevated financial leverage often found within the group.


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