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Oct 16, 2024
ASML Holding Lowers 2025 Outlook
Image: ASML Holding is falling from recent highs as its third quarter report and outlook disappointed investors. ASML’s guidance for 2025 came in below what consensus had been looking for. 2025 net sales are now expected in the range of €30 billion and €35 billion, which compares to guidance of €30 billion to €40 billion previously and the consensus estimate of €35.94 billion. The company’s updated gross margin outlook for 2025 in the range of 51%-53% is below the 54%-56% it had previously forecast and below the consensus estimate of 53.9%. The bookings number in the third quarter coupled with lowered 2025 guidance is weighing on the stock. Though the news isn’t great, we continue to like ASML Holding as a long-term idea in the ESG Newsletter portfolio.
Oct 16, 2024
Goldman Sachs Beats Third Quarter Estimates, Puts Up Strong Economic Returns
Image: Goldman Sachs’ shares have done well the past couple years. Goldman Sachs continues to generate value for shareholders. Annualized return on average common shareholder equity [ROE] was 10.4% for the third quarter of 2024 and 12.0% for the first nine months of 2024. We liked Goldman’s revenue growth in the quarter, and the company continues to put up double-digit economic returns. Shares trade at 1.6x book value, so we’re not viewing them as cheap at this time. Shares yield 2.3%.
Oct 16, 2024
Johnson & Johnson's Shares Look Fairly Valued
Image: Johnson & Johnson’s 2024 P&L guidance. Looking to all of 2024, Johnson & Johnson expects the midpoint of adjusted operational sales growth of 6%, up from its prior expectation of 5.8%. At the midpoint, diluted adjusted operational earning per share expansion is targeted at $9.91 per share down from $10.05 per share due to a negative impact from its recent acquisition of V-Wave. Our fair value estimate stands at $165 per share, about in-line with where shares are currently trading. Shares yield ~3%.
Oct 15, 2024
JPMorgan Continues to Generate Value for Shareholders
Image Source: Hakan Dahlstrom. During the third quarter, JPMorgan's book value per share was up 15%, to $115.15, while tangible book value per share grew 18%, to $96.42. Shares of JPMorgan aren’t cheap trading at north of 1.9x book value. JPMorgan is an important bellwether for the global economy, and its third quarter results spoke of continued strength and high returns on capital. We include Financial Select SPDR in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio to capture diversification benefits from the largest financial institutions. Shares of JPM yield approximately 2.3% at the time of this writing.
Oct 11, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of October 11
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Oct 10, 2024
Domino’s Pizza Remains an Attractive Long-Term Story
Image: Domino’s core values. Looking to 2024, Domino’s expects approximately 6% annual global retail sales growth and approximately 8% annual income from operations growth as it seeks to expand global net store count by 800 to 850. For 2025, Domino’s expects a similar pace of expansion for annual global retail sales growth and annual income from operations growth. Its long-term guidance (2026-2028) calls for 7%+ annual global retail sales growth and 8%+ annual income from operations growth. The company ended the quarter with $4.98 billion in total debt and $189.1 million in cash and cash equivalents. Though Domino’s has a lofty net debt position, we like its long-term growth story, and the company remains a core idea in the portfolio of the Best Ideas Newsletter.
Oct 8, 2024
PepsiCo Experiencing Subdued Growth, Business Disruptions Due to Geopolitical Tensions
Image: PepsiCo has traded sideways for most of the past couple years. For 2024, PepsiCo expects a low-single-digit increase in organic revenue (was previously approximately 4% in organic revenue growth) and at least an 8% increase in core constant currency earnings per share. PepsiCo is targeting total cash returns to shareholders of $8.2 billion for the year, comprising $7.2 billion in dividends and the balance in share repurchases. As it relates to core earnings per share, management is targeting at least $8.15, a 7% increase compared to 2023 core earnings per share of $7.62. Though PepsiCo’s results weren’t great with subdued category trends in North America and business disruptions from geopolitical tensions, we still like shares as a key diversifier in the portfolio of the Best Ideas Newsletter.
Oct 4, 2024
Constellation Brands’ Beer Business Continues to Propel Results
Image Source: Constellation Brands. Looking to fiscal 2025 guidance, Constellation Brands expects net sales growth of 4%-6% led by Beer net sales growth of 6%-8%, offset in part by net sales declines of 4%-6% for Wine and Spirits. Operating cash flow is targeted at $2.8-$3 billion, while capital spending is expected in the range of $1.4-$1.5 billion, including major investments in its Mexico beer operations. Free cash flow is expected at $1.4-$1.5 billion. On a comparable basis, management is targeting earnings per share at $13.60-$13.80 for the fiscal year versus $12.38 in fiscal 2024.
Oct 2, 2024
Nike In the Midst of a CEO Transition, Withdraws Full Year Guidance
Image: Nike’s shares have been under pressure as the firm continues to underperform. Nike is in the midst of a management transition with Elliott Hill returning to the company in the capacity of President and CEO effective October 14. Looking to the second quarter of fiscal 2025, Nike expects revenue to be down in the 8%-10% range and gross margins to be down roughly 150 basis points, pointing to higher promotions and channel mix headwinds. Though Nike has a storied brand, unmatched by rivals, it has fallen on difficult times, and we’re staying on the sidelines with respect to shares. Shares yield 1.7% at the time of this writing.
Sep 30, 2024
Carnival Corp. Experiencing Strong Demand
Image: Carnival’s shares have traded sideways since the beginning of 2024. We like the demand momentum behind Carnival’s business, but its balance sheet keeps us on the sidelines. The company ended the quarter with $1.5 billion in cash and $28.9 billion in long-term debt. Fitch rates the company’s debt as non-investment grade with a BB credit rating. S&P rates its debt at BB and Moody’s B1. The company’s economic returns aren’t that much greater than its cost of capital either, even during good times. Carnival’s shares have been roughly flat year-to-date.


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