Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jun 5, 2025

Home Depot Expects Modest Sales Growth in 2025
Image: Home Depot’s shares have been choppy the past few years. Looking to fiscal 2025, Home Depot expects total sales growth of approximately 2.8%, with comparable store sales growth of roughly 1% compared to the same 52-week period last year. Gross margin is targeted at 33.4%, while its adjusted operating margin is expected to be 13.4% for the year. Diluted earnings per share is expected to decline approximately 3%, while adjusted diluted earnings per share is targeted to fall approximately 2%. Capital expenditures are budgeted at 2.5% of total sales. Shares yield 2.5% at the time of this writing.

Jun 3, 2025

Dollar General Raises Guidance Despite Tariff Uncertainty
Image: Dollar General’s shares have been under pressure the past few years. Dollar General updated its fiscal year 2025 guidance to reflect first quarter results and tariff uncertainty. Its updated guidance “assumes the company will be able to mitigate a significant portion of the potential impact to its cost of goods sold from tariffs at currently implemented rates, but that consumer spending could be pressured by tariff-related price increases.” As a result of these moving parts, net sales growth for fiscal 2025 is targeted in the range of 3.7%-4.7%, up from prior expectations of 3.4%-4.4%. Same-store sales growth for the year is targeted at 1.5%-2.5% compared to prior expectations of 1.2%-2.2%. Diluted earnings per share is expected in the range of $5.20-$5.80 compared to its prior expectation in the range of $5.10-$5.80. Shares yield 2.4% at the time of this writing.

May 29, 2025

Nvidia Reports Better Than Expected First Quarter Results
Image: Nvidia’s shares are flirting with all-time highs. Nvidia ended the quarter with $53.7 billion in cash and marketable securities versus long-term debt of $8.5 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities was $27.4 billion in the first quarter, up from $15.3 billion in the year-ago period. Free cash flow was $26.2 billion in the quarter, up from $15 billion in the year-ago period. Nvidia is a net cash rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouse, and we continue to like shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Our fair value estimate stands at $163 per share.

May 28, 2025

AT&T Is Targeting $16+ Billion in Free Cash Flow in 2025
Image: AT&T’s shares have performed well of late. For its full year 2025 outlook, AT&T expects consolidated service revenue growth in the low-single-digit range, with mobility service revenue growth at the higher end of the 2%-3% range. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow 3% or better for the year. Capital investment is targeted in the $22 billion range, while free cash flow is expected to be greater than $16 billion for the year. Adjusted earnings per share for 2025 is targeted in the range of $1.97-$2.07. Net debt was $119.1 billion at the end of the quarter. The high end of our fair value estimate range is $34 per share. Shares yield 4% at the time of this writing.

May 28, 2025

IBM Continues to Target $13.5 Billion in Free Cash Flow for 2025
Image: IBM’s shares have done quite well the past few years. During the first quarter, IBM returned $1.5 billion to shareholders in dividends while it invested $7.1 billion in acquisitions, including its purchase of HashiCorp. IBM ended the quarter with $17.6 billion in cash and marketable securities, while debt, including IBM Financing debt, totaled $63.3 billion. Looking to the full year 2025, IBM continues to expect constant currency revenue growth of at least 5%. Free cash flow is targeted at $13.5 billion for the full year. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $293 per share. Shares yield 2.6% at the time of this writing.

May 27, 2025

ASML Delivers Despite Tariff Uncertainty
Image: ASML Holding’s shares have been choppy during the past couple years. Looking to the second quarter of 2025, ASML expects “total net sales between €7.2 billion and €7.7 billion, with a gross margin between 50% and 53%.” The firm expects “R&D costs of around €1.2 billion and SG&A costs of around €300 million.” Looking to the full year, ASML expects “total net sales for the year between €30 billion and €35 billion, with a gross margin between 51% and 53%, subject to the uncertainties mentioned earlier.” Though tariffs remain an area of uncertainty, we continue to like ASML as a holding in the ESG Newsletter portfolio.

May 22, 2025

Target Navigating a Highly Challenging Environment
Image Source: TradingView. Looking to fiscal 2025, Target expects a low-single digit decline in sales and adjusted earnings per share between $7.00-$9.00, when excluding gains from litigation settlements in the first quarter. Target’s results are consistent with an entity that is experiencing macroeconomic and competitive challenges. Walmart and Costco are performing much better than Target, and we don’t expect this to change anytime soon. Target ended the quarter with $2.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents against short- and long-term debt of $15.5 billion. Shares are trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate.

May 19, 2025

Walmart Talks of Higher Prices Due to Tariffs; Trump Takes Exception
Looking to the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Walmart’s net sales are expected to increase 3.5%-4.5%, which includes a 20 basis point tailwind from its acquisition of Vizio. Looking to all of fiscal 2026, the firm left its guidance unchanged. Net sales are expected to increase 3%-4%, while adjusted operating income is targeted to advance between 3.5%-5.5%, which includes a meaningful headwind from lapping leap year. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to be between $2.50-$2.60, including foreign currency headwinds. Though Walmart’s fiscal first quarter results revealed strength, President Trump took exception to Walmart’s plans to raise prices as a result of tariffs. We like Walmart, but don’t include the stock in any newsletter portfolio. Read more >>

May 15, 2025

Dick’s Sporting Goods to Acquire Foot Locker
Image: Dick’s Sporting Goods’ shares sold off on its announcement that it would acquire Foot Locker. On May 15, Dick’s Sporting Goods announced that it would acquire Foot Locker in a transaction that implies an equity value of $2.4 billion and enterprise value of $2.5 billion. Dick’s intends to finance the acquisition through a combination of cash on hand and new debt and is expected to close in the second half of 2025. Dick’s intends to operate Foot Locker as a standalone business unit within its portfolio, while it maintains the Foot Locker brands. Dick’s also released preliminary first quarter results, showcasing comparable store sales growth of 4.5% and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share of $3.37. The ongoing strength in its business positions it well to gobble up Foot Locker. The deal will allow Dick’s to serve consumers in new locations in the U.S., while also expanding internationally for the first time. The combined entity will benefit from learnings from Dick’s House of Sport and Foot Locker’s Reimagined Concept stores and serve as a stronger partner for key brands, offering multiple platforms for both established and emerging partners. Dick’s expects the transaction to be accretive to EPS in the first full fiscal year post-close and to deliver between $100-$125 million in cost synergies. Our $229 per share fair value estimate for Dick’s remains unchanged at this time.

May 15, 2025

Cisco Raises Fiscal 2025 Outlook Again
Image: Cisco put up excellent fiscal third quarter results. Looking to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Cisco’s revenue is expected to be between $14.5-$14.7 billion, with non-GAAP earnings per share targeted in the range of $0.96-$0.98. For all of fiscal 2025, revenue is expected to be in the range of $56.5-$56.7 billion (was $56-$56.5 billion) and non-GAAP earnings per share in the range of $3.77-$3.79 (was $3.68-$3.74). We continue to like Cisco as a holding in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $74 per share.