Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 28, 2022

Deere’s Incredible Pricing Power Shines Through in Fiscal Fourth Quarter
Image: Deere put up excellent fiscal fourth-quarter results for the period ending October 30, 2022. The company's pricing power is phenomenal. Image Source: Deere. Deere & Company put up excellent fiscal fourth quarter results November 23, and the highlight of the quarter was the firm’s tremendous pricing power. Its outlook for fiscal 2023 was solid, too, and we expect considerable operating income expansion on the back of strong double-digit top-line growth as supply chain issues fall to the wayside in the coming quarters as economic conditions normalize. Deere has a sizable net debt position and traditional free cash flow faced pressure on a year-over-year basis during fiscal 2022, but the company may be one of the best ways to combat inflation through equities. Management also expects operating cash flow to bounce back to the range of $9-$9.5 billion in fiscal 2023 from $4.7 billion in the recently completed fiscal 2022. For us, however, Deere isn’t a great fit for the simulated newsletter portfolios given its pricey stock and comparatively small dividend yield of ~1%, but its outlook bodes well for the agricultural supply chain for fiscal 2023. The high end of our fair value estimate for Deere still resides below its current price of $440 per share, meaning investors are paying up to own Deere at the moment.

Nov 28, 2022

2022 Showcased the Value of a Valuentum Membership
In bull markets, almost everyone is a winner. But 2022 was different. This year was a big test for Valuentum, and we passed with flying colors. We delivered across the board during the year from ideas in the Exclusive publication and the efficacy of the dividend growth methodology to the resilience of high yield ideas and simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio relative performance--despite setbacks from Meta Platforms, PayPal, and beyond. Tune in to the latest video installment from Valuentum. Thanks for listening!

Nov 25, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of November 25
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Nov 22, 2022

Dick’s Sporting Goods Defies Skeptics, Puts Up Strong Comp Performance in Fiscal Third Quarter
Image: Dick’s Sporting Goods is the premiere sporting goods retailer, and the firm’s performance during its recently reported fiscal third quarter showed a key inflection point in same-store-sales growth. Image Source: Dick’s Sporting Goods. On November 22, Dick’s Sporting Goods reported fiscal third quarter results for the period ending October 29 that beat expectations on both the top and bottom line, but the real story was the sporting good retailer’s same-store sales performance, which far exceeded the consensus expectation for the period. With a forward estimated dividend yield of ~1.8% and a solid Dividend Cushion ratio of 3.3, Dick’s Sporting Goods remains one of our favorite ideas within the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Nov 21, 2022

Procter & Gamble’s Bright Investor Day Buoys Our Views on Stock
Image: Procter & Gamble has delivered pre-, during, and post-pandemic, and its long-term growth targets remain reasonable, in our view. Image Source: P&G. Procter & Gamble has raised its dividend in each of the past 66 years and has paid a dividend in each of the past 132 years. Though the maker of Pampers, Bounty, Tide, Crest, and a number of other household brands is facing the market realities of inflationary pressures on consumers, input cost headwinds and retailers tightening their inventories, we think it will be able to achieve its core targets for fiscal 2023, while rewarding dividend investors along the way. With shares yielding ~2.6% at the time of this writing, P&G remains a solid income and dividend growth consideration for conservative investors. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $158 per share.

Nov 21, 2022

Target’s Holiday Outlook Sends Mixed Messages; Big Sales Data Week Ahead
Image Source: Valuentum. Both Walmart and Target indicated that discretionary spending may face some pressure heading into the holiday season. Strength in beauty, skin care, and cosmetics may not be enough to cushion the blow that home electronics, sporting goods retailers, and toy makers may face. Though incrementally more positive than we were a few months ago, we remain cautious/defensive on the markets. In light of the tremendous weakness share prices have faced so far this year, we think the market had been anticipating the current slowdown, as retailers continue to adjust to a more difficult economic environment. We continue to wait to see how Black Friday and Cyber Monday numbers shake out to get an incrementally better read on how holiday numbers may pan out, which will have far-reaching implications across the retail and logistics landscapes.

Nov 19, 2022

The Case for the Valuentum Style of Investing
We provide the white paper supporting our innovative, forward-looking stock-selection methodology.

Nov 18, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of November 18
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Nov 17, 2022

Cisco Raises Fiscal 2023 Guidance But Orders Face Difficult Comps
Image: Cisco’s annualized recurring revenue (ARR) continues to advance nicely. Image Source: Cisco. Cisco’s first-quarter results for fiscal 2023, released November 16, were solid, and the firm’s pace of annualized recurring revenue continues to advance nicely, giving it nice visibility into future performance. The networking giant raised its guidance for fiscal 2023 for both the top- and bottom-lines, though we note that product orders did fall meaningfully in the quarter on a year-over-year basis (but this was largely due to a tough comparison from last year's period). Its free cash flow generation was solid in the quarter, and we continue to like the company’s net cash position. Cisco continues to buy back its own undervalued stock and yields an attractive ~3.4% at this time.

Nov 16, 2022

Efficacy of the Dividend Cushion Ratio
The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%.