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Apr 26, 2018
What’s Working (or NOT Working) in Today’s Market?
Image shown: Crude oil continues to lead gainers while consumer staples, REITs, and energy MLPs continue to get shellacked. Let’s take a look at what’s been working and what’s not been working in the market thus far in 2018. To little surprise, in our opinion, commodity prices have been the leaders, while interest-rate sensitive equities have been the laggards. We’ve been expecting this. Apr 25, 2018
A Trifecta of Good Reports: Visa, Facebook, PayPal
We continue to like the long-term potential at Visa and absolutely love the level of its operating margins. Facebook is going to continue to get bad press, but fundamentally, we think the company is going to make it through to shine once again. PayPal had a nice first-quarter report, and while we would like to see more security with respect to its relationship with eBay, the company’s pace of growth suggests it could easily grow out of its early ties with the auction website. Apr 25, 2018
The Transformation of Novartis Continues
Image Source: Taki Steve. Leadership change can often bring a great deal of uncertainty especially when a new leader is replacing a successful CEO. In the case of Novartis, we are witnessing a focused effort to streamline the business: a deliberate attempt to shift focus from a sprawling healthcare enterprise towards a more pure-play pharma/biotech powerhouse with an innovative, cutting-edge product portfolio. Apr 25, 2018
Demand Bouncing Off Multi-Year Bottom at Caterpillar
Improvement in Caterpillar’s underlying end markets is driving its performance, and management took the opportunity following a solid showing in the first quarter of 2018 to raise its bottom-line guidance for the full year. The market, however, did not look favorably on management’s comments that the first quarter should be expected to be the “high-water mark” for the year in terms of margin performance. We’ve updated our fair value estimate of shares. Apr 25, 2018
Twitter’s Problems: Slow Growth in the US and Low-ROI for Small Business
Image Source: Xiaobin Lui. We like Twitter’s improved free cash flow generation and net cash position on the balance sheet, but it’s too hard for small businesses to build customer trust on the platform, and the lack of engagement from followers at mom-and-pop businesses is almost hard to believe. It seems like Twitter remains primarily a distribution platform for politicians, the media and celebrities, those already having exposure from other avenues. Small, mom-and-pop businesses – the bread and butter behind future advertising revenue at Twitter - can’t make Twitter work for them as returns on their investment remain minimal, at best. Apr 25, 2018
We Said Consumer Staples Would Underperform
The consumer staples sector has been pummeled by a number of factors, from long-term concerns about the adoption of new products in the tobacco industry to pressures on gross margins for branded consumables and generally underperforming free cash flows in the tried-and-true beverage arena. We still like the business models of many constituents, but you knew this was coming. Apr 24, 2018
Lockheed’s Shares Still Not Cheap
Image shown: "Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Lightning II test aircraft AA-1 undergoes flight testing over Fort Worth, Texas (source)." We liked Lockheed Martin’s first-quarter 2018 report, and we liked even more that the company raised its full-year outlook for revenue, operating income and earnings per share. Operating cash flow performance was weighed down by pension contributions and backlog didn’t advance in the period, but the backdrop for defense spending remains healthy given ongoing geopolitical tensions. Shares of Lockheed aren’t cheap, however. Apr 24, 2018
United Tech Ups Guidance; Outlook Bodes Well For Aerospace Supply Chain
Image Source: hj_west. We think activist pressure on United Technologies is unwarranted, and we were highly encouraged by the company’s execution during the first quarter of 2018. Performance at Pratt & Whitney and UTC Aerospace Systems bodes well for the aerospace supply chain. Apr 24, 2018
Coca-Cola’s Free Cash Flow Generation Could Be Better
Coca-Cola reported messy first-quarter 2018 results, making an assessment of its underlying free-cash-flow generation paramount. Coverage of cash dividends with free cash flow generation has become rather tight in recent years, and the company’s net debt position isn’t exactly encouraging. Very few companies have the competitive advantages and dividend growth track record of this tried-and-true beverage giant, however. Apr 23, 2018
Alphabet May Need to Clean Up Its Spending
Alphabet, the company formerly known as Google, put up decent first-quarter 2018 results with respect to the top line, but the company is facing a rising cost and capital-spending profile. The first quarter could have been a lot better, in our opinion.
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