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Jul 30, 2019
Don't Follow the Social Media Likes: The Divine “Comment(y)”
Image Source: Pilottage. “Personally, it was a miserable experience for me to see things that others couldn’t.” – Nelson on Valuentum’s call preceding Kinder Morgan’s dividend cut. Jul 30, 2019
Mylan Surges, Why Fair Value Estimates Matter
Image Source: Valuentum's 16-page Report of Mylan. Mylan NV agreed to merge with Pfizer Inc’s Upjohn unit to form a much larger and more diversified entity in the pharmaceutical industry. Shares of Mylan shot up to just under the low end of our fair value estimate range as of this writing. Jul 29, 2019
Letting Dollar General Run Higher
Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Dollar General has trounced the market by roughly 70 percentage points since it was added to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio in April 2017. Yet another big outperformer. Jul 27, 2019
We Just Can’t Justify Starbucks’ Lofty Valuation, Even After Its Great Quarter
Image Shown: The red dot signifies where shares of SBUX are trading at as of midday trading on July 26. Shares of Starbucks are trading well above the top end of our Fair Value Range. We just can’t see a way to justify its current lofty valuation other than, to quote Alan Greenspan, irrational exuberance. While Starbucks has a promising growth trajectory ahead of it, we see its valuation as stretched after updating our model. The top end of our fair value estimate range stands at $89/share, well below where SBUX is trading at as of this writing. Jul 26, 2019
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending July 26
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week. Jul 25, 2019
Google, Intel -- Yes!
Let's talk Google and Intel, remind you that we've removed Chipotle, Xilinx, and Boeing from the newsletter portfolios some time ago. I'll talk a little about PayPal's run higher and address some other themes, including contingent liabilities with J&J and 3M. Jul 25, 2019
Viewing Intrinsic Value as a Range of Outcomes: Tesla’s Margins Come Under Fire in Second Quarter, Shares Sell Off
Image Source: The Valuentum Buying Index almost called the top in Tesla's shares. Tesla shares are under considerable pressure, and we can understand why. Investors are concerned positive free cash flows may be farther away than previously anticipated as Tesla’s margins come under pressure from its transition into the mass-market via the Model 3 offering. We value shares of TSLA at $219 per share at the midpoint of our fair value estimate range and are staying away from the electric automaker as it doesn’t appear the company is firing on all cylinders just yet. Jul 25, 2019
Coca-Cola, Visa, and More from Valuentum
If you recall, Facebook issued a terrible outlook in mid-2018 that sent the stock tumbling. Many of our members cancelled their membership during 2018 on this decline. But we stuck with our conviction in the name. But why? How could we possibly stick with a company like Facebook all the way down and ditch entities like Kinder Morgan and General Electric, seemingly iron-clad companies, right at their tops. The answer, my dear members, is a focus on the financial statements and forward-looking analysis. Jul 25, 2019
Best Ideas Holding Visa Posts a Great Quarter, We Continue to Like the Name
Image Source: Visa Corp. Visa does not issue credit cards, so it doesn’t take on any credit risk, and instead makes its money from offering payment processing solutions. The virtuous cycle of increased debit/credit card use worldwide is an integral part to our thesis. Jul 24, 2019
Coca-Cola’s Valuation Is Stretched
Image Source: Broderick. While the market clearly liked Coca-Cola’s earnings report, we believe investors are getting ahead of themselves. We aren’t interested in shares of KO at these levels, and we caution readers on the stretched valuation of consumer staples companies in general.
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