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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Feb 17, 2024
Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.
Feb 15, 2024
Cisco Looks Cheap at 13x Forward Non-GAAP Earnings But Fundamentals Are Deteriorating
Image: Cisco has ratcheted down expectations during the past couple quarters, and its shares have been choppy for the better part of a year now. We’re not liking what we’re seeing from Cisco Systems these days, and this is a change from our generally more upbeat view during the past several months. Revenue is under pressure, guidance continues to come in lower than expectations, its balance sheet will weaken as a result of its pending deal for Splunk, and free cash flow trends haven’t been as strong as they used to be. The company is adjusting its cost structure with layoffs as it continues to work to transform its business model to be more recurring, but the near term will likely continue to be challenging for the company. If free cash flow does not meaningfully improve in the next couple quarters, we’ll look to remove Cisco from the newsletter portfolios, despite its attractive ~13x forward non-GAAP earnings multiple.
Feb 14, 2024
Coca Cola’s Pricing Strength Continues to Power Results
Image: Coca-Cola’s pace of price/mix expansion continues to drive strong performance. On February 13, Coca-Cola reported strong fourth quarter results that exceeded expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The standout metric in the quarter was organic revenue growth, which advanced an impressive 12% in the quarter thanks to a solid 9 percentage-point increase in price/mix and 3 percentage-point expansion in concentrate sales. The company’s outlook for 2024 was strong as well, with the company targeting organic revenue expansion of 6%-7% for the year, and we like the momentum behind Coca-Cola’s performance. The Dividend King continues to deliver for investors, and while shares are trading above our fair value estimate, investors can do a lot worse than investing in Coca-Cola, in our view.
Feb 13, 2024
Waste Management’s Pricing Power Is Fantastic, Sustainability Initiatives Are Noble
Image Source: TheInvertedFan. There are few industry economics that we like better than the waste management industry, and Waste Management is the leader in this oligopolistic environment. Management plans to continue buying back stock, and the firm intends to raise its dividend by $0.20 per share, to $3.00 on an annual basis, making it 21 consecutive years that it has raised its payout. Though free cash flow will face pressure from its sustainability initiatives, the company’s free cash flow generation remains robust. At a $3 per-share annualized dividend, shares of Waste Management yield ~1.6% on a forward-looking basis. Though we don’t include Waste Management in the newsletter portfolios (we include peer Republic Services in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio), the company is one of our favorites for consideration.
Feb 11, 2024
Eli Lilly’s Shares Have More Than Doubled During the Past 52 Weeks
Image: Eli Lilly’s shares have been on a tear these past few years. On February 6, Eli Lilly reported excellent fourth-quarter results that showed revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in better than expectations. The company’s fourth-quarter results were bolstered by sales of diabetes and weight-loss drug Mounjaro, which saw sales in the quarter leap to ~$2.2 billion from ~$279 million in the year ago period. We continue to be in awe of the sales momentum behind GLP-1 receptor agonists, and the opportunity continues to be robust, despite already rapid sales acceleration. Though Eli Lilly trades at a premium to the high end of our fair value estimate range, we may be low in our expectations of the company’s ability to tap this lucrative market in the longer run, and shares may still be attractive to the risk-seeking aggressive growth investor.
Feb 9, 2024
Earnings Roundup: PEP, DIS, ARM, PM
Image Source: Arm Holdings. Pepsi issued an outlook for 2024 that came in lower than what the Street was expecting, but we like the diversification of having a strong brand entity such as Pepsi in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Disney is working hard to get back on track, and cost-cutting efforts have significantly helped its free cash flow generation. The firm is buying back stock, too, and recently upped its semi-annual dividend payout by 50%. Arm Holdings plc surprised the market in a big way, sending shares almost 50% higher following the report. The company's lucrative royalty business model and attractive exposure to artificial intelligence has investors extremely excited. Philip Morris is targeting strong organic revenue growth in 2024 thanks in part to Zyn growth, and we like the strong foundation that its free cash flow provides in supporting its dividend.
Feb 9, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 9
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Feb 7, 2024
Chipotle Rallies, Long-term Outlook Remains Promising
Image Source: Valuentum. We’re huge fans of Chipotle’s long-term growth runway, and we think the continued rollout of Chipotlanes offers the firm the ability to expand into the valuable breakfast daypart, which we think will come eventually. Its digital initiatives continue to work out well, too, with digital sales accounting for 36.1% of its total food and beverage revenue in the fourth quarter. Looking out to all of 2024, Chipotle expects full-year comparable restaurant sales growth in the mid-single-digit range and to add 285-315 new restaurants. The high end of our fair value estimate of Chipotle stands at $3,022 per share, and we continue to like shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.
Feb 6, 2024
Palantir’s Fourth-Quarter Results Showcase Strong Trends in Artificial Intelligence
Image: Palantir’s revenue continues to march higher, and the company’s performance continues to showcase the growing strength in artificial intelligence. Source: Palantir. We liked Palantir’s quarterly results, but we wanted to bring to members’ attention the commentary surrounding artificial intelligence [AI]: "Our results reflect both the strength of our software and the surging demand that we are seeing across industries and sectors for artificial intelligence platforms, including large language models, that are capable of integrating with the tangle of existing technical infrastructure that organizations have been constructing for years...The demand for large language models from commercial institutions in the United States continues to be unrelenting. Every part of our organization is focused on the rollout of our Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), which has gone from a prototype to a product in months. And our momentum with AIP is now significantly contributing to new revenue and new customers."
Feb 5, 2024
McDonald’s Facing Macro Challenges, Impacts from the War in the Middle East
Image Source: Mike Mozart. On February 5, McDonald’s Corp reported decent fourth-quarter results with strong revenue growth coming roughly in-line with consensus estimates and non-GAAP earnings per share exceeding the Street’s forecast. Though the firm noted that it is experiencing some macro challenges and that its operations continue to be impacted by the war in the Middle East, we like having McDonald’s as a core restaurant holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio in part because of its mostly franchised business model that handles inflationary pressures well and its strong and world-renowned brand name. The high end of our fair value estimate range of McDonald’s stands at $345 per share, and the company yields ~2.25% at the time of this writing.



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