Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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UPS Returns to Revenue and Profit Growth
Image: UPS’ shares have been under pressure the past couple years. For the first nine months of the year, UPS hauled in $6.8 billion in operating cash flow and generated free cash flow of $4 billion. For full year 2024, UPS is targeting consolidated revenue of approximately $91.1 billion (was $93 billion), while it now expects its consolidated non-GAAP adjusted operating margin to be roughly 9.6% (was 9.4%). For the year, capital expenditures are targeted at $4 billion, while dividend payments are expected to be around $5.4 billion. Shares yield 4.7% at the time of this writing.

IBM Targeting $12+ Billion in 2024 Free Cash Flow
Image: Shares of IBM are flirting with record highs. IBM continues to expect to generate more than $12 billion in free cash flow for 2024 and for fourth-quarter constant currency revenue growth to be consistent with its most recently reported third quarter. IBM ended the third quarter with $13.7 billion in cash and marketable securities versus debt, including financing debt, of $56.6 billion. Though IBM has a large net debt position, we’re generally positive on its dividend given free cash flow coverage. Shares yield 3% at the time of this writing.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of October 25
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Coca-Cola’s Organic Growth Shines in Third Quarter
Image: Coca-Cola’s shares have done quite well the past couple years. Coca-Cola’s organic growth continues to be impressive, and the firm’s non-GAAP numbers show expansion in the core business. Still, it’s hard for us to get excited about a company reporting unadjusted net revenue declines, with global unit case volume also declining in the period. We think Coca-Cola retains its place as a top blue chip stock, but we think there are better ideas for consideration in the newsletter portfolios. Our fair value estimate stands at $61 per share.

Honeywell Adjusts Full Year 2024 Guidance
Image: Honeywell’s shares have traded sideways the past couple years. Honeywell has a lot of moving parts these days. The company closed its $1.9 billion acquisition of CAES Systems and $1.8 billion acquisition of Air Products’ LNG business, while it plans to spin off its Advanced Materials business and exit its PPE business. We’re big fans of Honeywell’s aerospace division, which recorded its ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit organic growth thanks to strong commercial original equipment and solid growth in commercial aftermarket. Though the firm reduced its revenue and free cash flow outlook for 2024, we like the long-term story at Honeywell, and the company remains a core holding in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Our fair value estimate stands at $216 per share.

Tesla’s Margins, Free Cash Flow Swell in Third Quarter
Image: Tesla has returned to a free cash flow rich entity. Tesla reported solid third quarter results that showed a business that is getting back on track. Not only did production and deliveries increase nicely on a year-over-year basis, but the firm’s margin improvement is a sight to see and comes in the wake of lowered vehicle selling prices. Tesla also showcased its cash generation capacity in the quarter, with free cash flow more than tripling. We like Tesla’s net-cash-rich balance sheet, its free cash flow generation, and its ability to drive growth, but we fall short of including shares in any newsletter portfolio.

Boeing Burning Through Cash
Image: Boeing’s shares have seen better days. The big red flag with Boeing is its cash flow performance. The aerospace giant burned through $1.3 billion in operating cash flow in the third quarter due to lower commercial widebody deliveries and unfavorable working capital timing, and after factoring in capital spending of $611 million in the period, cash burn in terms of negative free cash flow was roughly $2 billion in the quarter. Through the first nine months of the year, Boeing has burned through over $10.2 billion in free cash flow. Boeing’s balance sheet isn’t as strong as it once was either, with $10.5 billion in cash and marketable securities versus consolidated debt of $57.7 billion. Inventories swelled to $83.3 billion at the end of its September quarter versus $79.7 billion at the end of last year. The company does have $20 billion undrawn on its credit facilities, however. We don’t think Boeing is a top idea for investors, but we do like its total company backlog of $510.5 billion, which includes over 5,400 commercial airplanes. We prefer Honeywell as our top aerospace idea and Lockheed Martin as our top defense play.

Philip Morris Raises 2024 Guidance, Shares Catapult to All-Time Highs
Image: Shares of Philip Morris catapult to all-time highs. On the heels of strength witnessed in the third quarter, Philip Morris raised its outlook for adjusted diluted earnings per share, excluding currency, to $6.85-$6.91 (was $6.67-$6.79 per share), reflecting 14%-15% growth, up from prior expectations of 11%-13%. We like the earnings momentum behind Philip Morris’ business, and the company has a big winner on its hands with ZYN nicotine pouches. The high end of our fair value estimate range for Philip Morris stands at $134 per share. Shares yield 4.5%.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of October 18
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Kinder Morgan’s Dividend Is Much Healthier These Days
Image: Kinder Morgan’s shares have done quite well thanks to improved free cash flow performance. Year-to-date Kinder Morgan's free cash flow, as measured by cash flow from operations less all capital spending, totaled $2.27 billion, higher than the $1.92 billion it paid in cash dividends during the same time period. Years ago, Kinder Morgan’s capital spending and cash dividends paid were significantly higher than cash flow from operations, necessitating a dividend cut. Things are much different these days, as Kinder Morgan’s free cash flow covered cash dividends paid by $353 million during the first nine months of the year. Though the firm retains a large net debt position, Kinder Morgan’s dividend is much healthier than it was years ago. Shares yield 4.6% at the time of this writing.