Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Oct 27, 2017

Analysis of Aspen Technology (AZPN) and IPG Photonics (IPGP)
Image Source: Aspen Tech. Aspen Technology helps some of the most capital-intensive industries optimize asset performance via process modeling, big data machine learning, and analytics, and its very own asset-light operations help it generate impressive levels of free cash flow. Shares aren’t cheap, however (it is trading above our fair value estimate range), and current price levels imply one hefty price-to-earnings ratio. Still, it’s hard not to like Aspen Technology’s high-ROIC business model, with the company garnering one of the highest Economic Castle ratings in our coverage. IPG Photonics is home to an impressive portfolio of high-performance fiber lasers and similar technologies that are used in materials processing, advanced communications, and medical applications--areas and applications that are expected to experience strong growth in coming years. We think IPG Photonics’ degree of vertical integration, IP portfolio, and process expertise offer it a number of competitive advantages. The company boasts a GAAP operating margin in the mid-30s and has generated impressive free cash flow expansion in recent years, but shares aren’t cheap either (it is trading at the high end of our fair value estimate range). Customer concentration and expansion into unproven markets add a layer of risk.

Oct 27, 2017

Intel Could Become a $50+ Stock?
Image Source: Intel. Fundamental momentum at Intel is phenomenal. The company is putting up record quarterly performance, and traditional multiple analysis suggests Intel could be priced north of $50 per share. It also offers a very attractive dividend yield.

Oct 26, 2017

Risky Restaurants? Taking a Look at Chipotle and Domino’s Pizza
Image Source: Valuentum. Chipotle and Domino’s Pizza have very little in common, in our view, but let’s take a look at what has been causing volatility in each company’s stock of late.

Oct 25, 2017

Does Visa Ever Disappoint?
Image Source: Visa. The credit card company's stock hit an all-time high on the trading session October 25. We continue to be huge fans of the company’s fundamentals.

Oct 25, 2017

Key Oncology Assets Powering Johnson & Johnson Higher
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson. Shares of newsletter portfolio holding Johnson & Johnson continue their stellar run, posting new all-time highs on the heels of an impressive third quarter earnings report. Let’s take an in-depth review of key pharma product franchises as they relate to the performance of the stock.

Oct 25, 2017

Analysis of Marcus Corp (MCS) and Schneider National Trucking (SNDR)
Image Source: Dan. Marcus Corp has done well in establishing itself as a meaningful regional player in the movie theater market, and its ability to outperform the industry in terms of box office results and profitability in its movie theater operations--thanks in part to its solid portfolio of owned real estate--is impressive. However, inconsistent free cash flow generation and a notable debt load give us some reason for pause, as does its weak Dividend Cushion ratio, and we see little valuation opportunity present in shares at this time. Schneider National Trucking operates a broad portfolio of freight transportation and logistics solutions that appear to be positioned well for profitable growth thanks to a diversified customer base, the proliferation of e-commerce, and potential margin-expanding initiatives. We generally prefer the business models of more asset-light peers, however, as the company’s free cash flow generation suffers due to the capital intensity of maintaining of a fleet of owned transportation equipment. We’re expecting ongoing expansion in its cash flow generating capacity, as a result of ongoing cash flow from operations expansion and lower capital spending in the near term, but shares of Schneider are trading firmly in the upper half of our fair value estimate range at the moment.

Oct 24, 2017

Bellwethers Drive Dow Jones Past 23,450 – Cheers!
Image: The stock market is partying like it's 1999 or 1929, or 1987. You pick. Cheers! Creative Commons, Ruth Hartnup. The market is reacting positively to calendar third-quarter earnings reports during the trading session October 24, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has now surpassed 23,450+. The rally in US equities ensues. Stocks mentioned in this note: General Motors, McDonald’s, and Caterpillar.

Oct 23, 2017

In August, We “Cut” Position in Hasbro in Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio
We still have a small “position” in the emerging licensing giant in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, having removed 75% of the “stake” in August.

Oct 23, 2017

Earnings Roundup: Unilever, Procter & Gamble, Kimberly-Clark
We love the business models of consumer staples, but recent fundamental performance hasn’t been great, and valuations are a bit stretched. Unilever is blaming natural disasters in the US for its underlying sales growth shortfalls, Procter & Gamble has to deliver now that it defeated Nelson Peltz, and Kimberly-Clark’s meager top-line expansion may not support its valuation. A good business does not always make a good stock.

Oct 23, 2017

Restasis Patent Protection Weighing on Shares of Allergan
Image Source: Allergan. We have witnessed numerous examples over the years of biotech/pharma companies selling-off over fears of the length of patent protection on an essential product. The concern is well-founded--if the company relies on the product for a significant portion of sales, it may be challenging to replace, especially if the clinical pipeline is relatively bereft of viable next-generation products. We believe the recent sell-off in the shares of Allergan may now be wholly factoring in the loss of patent protection of one of its core assets in Restasis, and the equity may not be getting enough credit for its highly diversified revenue stream.