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Mar 21, 2019
Tivity Health Paid Up For Nutrisytem; Shares Undervalued But We’re Not Biting
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Tivity Health looks to have paid a notable premium for Nutrisystem, but we think shares have been punished a bit too aggressively. While we are not fond of the deal’s price, it makes sense from a strategic standpoint. However, competition in the weight management market will not subside, and integration and execution risk will be key hurdles. Mar 20, 2019
Dropping Coverage of the Radio Broadcasting Industry
Image Source: Pandora. Valuentum is dropping coverage of the radio broadcasting industry to allocate resources elsewhere. Mar 20, 2019
Outperformance No Matter How You Measure It
Image shown: The performance of Valuentum's simulated Best Ideas Newsletter since the inaugural edition of the newsletter, July 13, 2011. We migrated to a weighting range format for the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio ideas beginning in 2018. At that time, Visa (V) was the top weighting by far at 8.6%. Shares of Visa have soared since, and other ideas haven't been too shabby either! Source. Valuentum's Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is in a class by itself. Did you know that ~90% of active fund managers are underperforming their benchmarks over prolonged periods of time? The lack of volatility of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio had been driven by its massive average cash "weighting" of 25% during its history, something we moved to 0% at almost the precise near-term bottom December 26, 2018. Mar 20, 2019
It Definitely Is a *Best* Ideas Newsletter!
Image shown: Valuentum migrated to a weighting range format for the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio ideas beginning in 2018. Mar 19, 2019
Lockheed Martin May Be a FCF Cow But the Company Should Consider Debt Reduction Over Share Buybacks
Image Source: Lockheed MartinRebounding free cash flow generation makes dividend growth all the more likely going forward, even though Lockheed Martin’s large net debt load needs to be monitored at all times. If the company attempts to makes another splashy purchase, its balance sheet may take on more than it can chew if free cash flow isn’t swiftly allocated to bringing that burden back down. In 2017 and 2018, Lockheed Martin spent $3.5 billion repurchasing its stock. We argue that going forward, the company should start allocating free cash flow to debt repayment. As of this writing, Lockheed Martin trades decently above our fair value estimate, meaning the company would be buying back shares at what we consider premium prices. Mar 18, 2019
Why We're Staying Away from KLX Energy Services for Now
Image Source: KLX Energy ServicesKLX Energy Services posted tremendous top and bottom-line growth during fiscal 2018 and great margin expansion. That being said, KLX Energy Services was still free cash flow negative, and it carries a material net debt load. While an interesting company and one we will keep on our radar going forward, KLXE is a risky investment in a tough market that even the bigwigs are having trouble navigating. The risks are too great for us. Mar 15, 2019
DG Newsletter Alert, Markets on a Roll! New Highs Coming?
Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a "fully invested" position, from a 30% and 20% cash "weighting" at the high end of the range, respectively. It doesn't look like the timing could have been much better. Mar 15, 2019
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 15
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week. Mar 14, 2019
Boeing Had Been Overpriced, Breakup Facebook, Amazon, and Alphabet?
Let’s cover some of the recent developments related to Boeing and ongoing political posturing as it relates to large tech companies. Don’t forget about the 40/40 goal, and be sure to check out the tremendous success rates of the Exclusive publication! Mar 12, 2019
Updated Thoughts on Brighthouse Financial and Quad/Graphics
Brighthouse Financial is trading at material discount to its book value per share as the market questions its strategy to enhance its return on equity in coming years, and we’re not high on its risk/reward potential as a notable portion of its bottom-line performance is beyond the control of management. Quad/Graphics sports a lofty dividend yield, but we’re less than enthused about its long-term prospects as it looks to consolidation in a declining industry for growth.
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Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on
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