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Jul 9, 2019
DXC Technology Looks Super Cheap
Image Shown: DXC Technology forecasts that its revenue in FY2020 will either be broadly flat or grow very modestly compared to its FY2019 performance. Image Source: DXC Technology – IR Presentation. While DXC Technology is experiencing top-line pressure due to weakness at its legacy businesses, its digital growth trajectory continues to look promising. Very strong free cash flows and a modest dividend policy leave plenty of room for upside as it relates to future dividend increases, particularly if share buybacks are scaled back. Jul 8, 2019
We Just Increased Our Fair Value Estimate for United Rentals
Image Shown: We increased our fair value estimate for United Rentals in early July 2019.United Rentals is supported by strong free cash flow generation, a growing top line, expanding margins, its push into specialty rental markets, expected synergies, and ever-growing economies of scale. Jul 2, 2019
Checking Out ARAMCO, Saudi Arabia’s Sleeping Giant
Image Source: Trending Topics 2019. Recent events have piqued our interest in the actions of Saudi Arabian Oil Company, better known as ARAMCO, the giant in charge of the Gulf nation’s hydrocarbon industry. Many view ARAMCO as the most valuable company in the world, but whether this is a USD$2 trillion company or not is in the eye of the beholder (many see that target as overly ambitious, as do we). Jul 1, 2019
What About BDCs?
Image Source: Prospect Capital Investor Presentation. Business Development Companies, or BDCs, are often considered by dividend investors as a result of their quite sizable dividend yields, as compared to the overall market. In this piece, let’s take a look at how these companies operate and then also compare some important metrics between the various players. Jun 30, 2019
Chevron's Permian Opportunity, Outsize Dividend Yield
Image Source: Chevron Corporation -- IR Presentation. Large oil & gas companies like Chevron are often sought after for their nice yields and promising growth prospects; however, the space has been undergoing a medium/long-term bust since late-2014. Chevron earned a return on invested capital, excluding goodwill, that was lower than its estimated weighted-average cost of capital in 2018 (its ROIC ex-goodwill were negative in 2016 and 2017). We don’t expect that to change until fiscal 2020 at the earliest, under our baseline assumptions, but we do expect Chevron’s financial performance (and returns) to improve materially through the early-2020s. That isn’t enough to get use excited about Chevron’s shares and its nice yield, but we are monitoring the space at-large. Jun 26, 2019
Another Pharmaceutical Giant Is Born
Image Source: AbbVie Inc – IR Presentation. The combination of AbbVie and Allergan seems to have been born out of the need to do something, anything, considering how dependent AbbVie is on Humira and Allergan is on Botox. We find the transaction interesting as it ties into our view that Big Pharma will continue getting bigger and bigger while the field gets smaller, but this doesn’t change on view on either Allergan or AbbVie. We aren’t considering shares of either company at this time. Jun 25, 2019
Visa, Concentration Bets and Facebook's Gift
Image: In late December, we increased the position in Facebook (FB) while shares were in the mid-$130s. The stock is up huge since then. Jun 24, 2019
Value Trap Is Winning And So Are You!
Image: Value Trap received acclaim at the prestigious Next Generation Indie Awards at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington DC. Shown: Value Trap at the American Library Association conference Headline Books booth June 22. Jun 21, 2019
Renewing Our Interest In Boston Properties
Image Source: Boston Properties Inc – IR Presentation. Boston Properties focuses on developing, owning, and operating Class A (or top tier) corporate office properties in a select few markets. The REIT sports good payout coverage on FFO terms and raised its guidance for 2019 but watch out for its hefty leverage. During the Great Recession, Boston Properties was forced to cut its regular dividend as credit conditions tightened. Jun 16, 2019
Valuentum's June Best Ideas Newsletter
Image: Page 49, June edition of American Library Association Booklist."I hope that my book Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation marks a turning point in the financial research industry. To you and me, 1) looking forward, 2) understanding that stock values are based on future expectations, and 3) calculating intrinsic value is simply par for the course. If other investors are not doing this, it should be no surprise that they are failing miserably. 90% underperformance! I hope my book serves as a wake up call for readers to demand forward-looking analysis and research that calculates a best fair value estimate." -- Brian Nelson, CFA
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