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Oct 11, 2025
Valuentum's Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio
We disclose the holdings of the portfolio of the Best Ideas Newsletter in this article. This portfolio can always be found in each edition of the monthly Best Ideas Newsletter. Oct 10, 2025
PepsiCo’s Earnings Stagnate While Organic Revenue Expands
Image Source: TradingView. Looking to 2025, PepsiCo continues to expect a low-single-digit increase in organic revenue and core constant currency earnings per share to be approximately even with the prior year. Management expects total cash returns to shareholders of approximately $8.6 billion, comprised of dividends of $7.6 billion and share buybacks of $1.0 billion. On a core earnings per share basis, the company expects a 0.5% decline in 2025 versus previous expectations of a 1.5% decline and compared to core earnings per share of $8.16 in 2024. The company ended the quarter with debt obligations of $50.8 billion and cash and short-term investments of $8.7 billion. We like PepsiCo, but think there are better opportunities in the simulated newsletter portfolios. Oct 10, 2025
Delta Air Lines Generates Record September Quarter Revenue
Image Source: TradingView. Looking to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Delta Air Lines expects total revenue to increase 2%-4%, with an operating margin of 10.5%-12%, resulting in earnings per share in the range of $1.60-$1.90. For fiscal year 2025, earnings per share is targeted at approximately $6.00, while free cash flow is expected in the range of $3.5-$4 billion. Gross leverage is anticipated to be less than 2.5x. Delta ended the quarter with $14.9 billion in debt and finance leases and $3.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Delta’s third quarter results speak to healthy consumer spending as a read on the economy, but we won’t be investing in any airline anytime soon. Oct 7, 2025
Casey’s General Stores Executing Well
Image Source: TradingView. Looking to fiscal 2026, Casey’s expects EBITDA to increase 10%-12% and inside same-store sales to increase 2%-5% on an inside margin of approximately 41%. The company expects to open at least 80 stores in fiscal 2026, through a mix of M&A and new store construction, bringing the three-year strategic plan period total to approximately 500 stores. We like Casey’s, but shares aren’t cheap enough for us to bite. Oct 7, 2025
Lennar Continues to Navigate Weakness in the Housing Market
Image Source: TradingView. In the fiscal third quarter, Lennar’s new orders increased 12% to 23,004 homes. Excluding mark-to-market gains, fiscal third quarter net earnings were $516 million, or $2.00 per diluted share, compared to $1.1 billion, or $3.90 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. The average sales price of homes delivered was $383,000 in the third quarter of 2025, compared to $422,000 in the third quarter of last year. Gross margins on home sales were $1.4 billion, or 17.5%, in the third quarter of 2025, down from 22.5% in the third quarter of 2024. Lennar is navigating weakness in a housing market that is requiring additional incentives, hurting margins, while it deals with higher land costs. We’re not interested in Lennar’s shares at this time. Oct 5, 2025
Nike Has Posted 23 Consecutive Years of Increasing Dividend Payouts
Image Source: TradingView. During the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Nike returned $714 million to shareholders, consisting of dividends of $591 million, up 6% from the prior year, and share repurchases of $123 million. Nike has repurchased 124.4 million shares under its $18 billion program approved by the board in June 2022 for a total of approximately $12.1 billion. At the end of the quarter, inventories at Nike were $8.1 billion, down 2% compared to the prior year, while cash and short-term investments were $8.6 billion, down approximately $1.7 billion from last year. Nike continues to face pressure in its footwear division, though apparel sales were strong in the quarter. Footwear revenue fell 12% on a constant currency basis in China. Looking to the fiscal second quarter, revenues are expected to be down low single digits, while gross margins are expected to fall 300-375 basis points, including a net headwind of 175 basis points from tariffs. Oct 5, 2025
Costco’s Shares Are Not Cheap
Image Source: Costco. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Costco’s gross margin expanded 13 basis points, while SG&A as a percentage of sales dropped 17 basis points, bolstering operating income. Net income for the fourth quarter was $2.61 billion, $5.87 per diluted share, seven cents better than expected and compared to $2.354 billion, $5.29 per diluted share in last year’s quarter. Long-term debt totaled $5.7 billion at the end of the quarter, while cash and short-term investments were $15.3 billion. Merchandise inventories fell to $18.12 billion from $18.65 billion at the end of last year’s quarter. We like the fundamental momentum at Costco and its outlook remains bright, but its valuation is quite stretched at the moment. We remain on the sidelines. Sep 29, 2025
Valuentum's Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio
We disclose the holdings of the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio in this article. This portfolio can always be found in each edition of the monthly Dividend Growth Newsletter. Sep 29, 2025
View Current and Archived Dividend Growth Newsletters
View previous editions of the Dividend Growth Newsletter in this article. At Valuentum, we seek to deliver to our subscribers the best dividend growth ideas, and our Dividend Growth Newsletter does just that for dividend growth investors. The Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio puts into practice our rigorous valuation and dividend growth frameworks. The Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is generally found on page 5 of each edition.
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View previous editions of the Best Ideas Newsletter in this article.