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Latest Valuentum Commentary
May 30, 2023
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.
Oct 30, 2022
Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you'll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you'll see this table in our work going forward.
Oct 20, 2022
Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!
Let's see who won an autographed copy of Value Trap and what they said about Valuentum's research! We applaud all of our members in their quest to preserve and generate long-term wealth. Keep going strong!
Oct 19, 2022
New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!
We're excited to say that we're adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Sep 20, 2022
Should You Gear Up for the Porsche AG IPO?
Image Shown: Unit sales at Porsche fell 5% during the first half of 2022, but demand remains particularly strong for its SUV models despite a troubled supply chain and higher input cost inflation. Image Source: Porsche AG. German luxury and sports car maker Porsche AG is planning to go public in the coming weeks, following in the footsteps of Ferrari, which listed a few years ago. Porsche-owner Volkswagen AG has been investing heavily in electric vehicles, and the IPO of the Porsche brand will provide it with fresh capital to be more competitive on that front.
Aug 19, 2022
Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
Image Source: Tim Green. We outline the '16 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market.' We think it's important to take a read of these key stock market tenets when things are going great -- and perhaps even more important when things aren't going your way. This continues to be a working document.
Jun 30, 2022
Big Changes in the Auto Industry as Chip Shortages, Supply Chain Issues, and Rising Input Costs Complicate Matters; Tesla and Ferrari Our Two Favorite Names
Image: Ferrari’s fundamental momentum has been strong of late. Image Source: Ferrari N.V. 2022 Globe Newswire. The auto industry perhaps has changed more than any other industry the past five years. First, it was Ford that said it wouldn’t make passenger cars anymore, except for its iconic Mustang. Then, the European Union said that it would eventually end the internal combustion engine (ICE) by 2035. Then, Tesla reached over $1,200 per share and over a $1 trillion market capitalization. Can you imagine a world where Ford is not making sedans, the once modern-marvel of the internal combustion engine is dying, and where one car maker is worth as much as the next nine car makers combined? Certainly, a lot has changed in the auto industry during the past decade, and we haven’t dabbled much in the auto sector as it relates to idea generation due in part to the industry’s fast-changing backdrop. That doesn’t mean that we’re not fans of the auto space and its promising long-term opportunities, particularly with electric vehicles (EVs). It just means that we think there are better stories elsewhere, as in ideas in the simulated newsletter portfolios. However, if we had to pick two of our favorite auto names to consider, they would be Tesla and Ferrari, even as we note General Motors and Ford both trade at mid-single-digit earnings multiples. That said, investors don’t necessarily have to take on the risks of automakers, especially as the group deals with chip shortages, supply chain issues, and margin pressures from higher input costs. The cyclicality of many of the operators and the reality that operating leverage cuts both ways (and is quite painful during difficult economic times) are risks that perhaps won’t ever go away. That said, exposure to the auto space via Tesla or Ferrari could work nicely in a broadly diversified equity portfolio should risk-seeking investors be so inclined. These two names remain on our radar.
Jan 27, 2022
Net Cash Rich Tesla Reports Solid Free Cash Flow, Closes Out 2021 on a High Note
Image Shown: A look at Tesla Inc’s new ‘Gigafactory’ manufacturing facility in Austin, Texas, that is currently under development. Image Source: Tesla Inc – Fourth Quarter of 2021 IR Shareholder Deck. On January 26, Tesla reported that it had produced ~306,000 vehicles and delivered ~309,000 vehicles during the final quarter of 2021. The electric vehicle (‘EV’) and battery maker beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates in the fourth quarter as it continued to successfully ramp its production capabilities. We plan to fine-tune our cash flow valuation model covering Tesla to take its latest earnings report into account, but we still expect the point fair value estimate to be below where shares are trading at the time of this writing (~$937 per share).
Oct 5, 2021
Innovative Fuel Cell Company Ceres Power Has a Stellar Growth Outlook
Image Shown: Ceres Power Holdings plc is a pioneer in the fuel cell industry. If Ceres Power and its strategic partners are successful, Ceres Power could offer investors ample capital appreciation upside though we caution that this is a highly speculative name. Image Source: Ceres Power Holdings Plc – First Half of 2021 Interim Report IR Presentation. Ceres Power is a pioneer in an attractive industry and continues to secure crucial strategic collaboration agreements with major industrial players worldwide. The company’s capital appreciation upside potential could be quite substantial, especially as products built on its SteelCell technology progress from the pilot phase to the commercial phase, providing its core licensing and royalties business a major uplift. Its SOEC offerings could be another source of tremendous long-term upside, though again, these are still early days. Investors should be aware of this innovative company.
Jun 1, 2021
ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.
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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.