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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Sep 30, 2024
DOJ Antitrust Lawsuits Targeting Our Top Two Ideas: V and GOOG
Image: Alphabet's and Visa's shares have performed remarkably well since the beginning of 2023. We received a number of questions regarding the DOJ's investigation into anticompetitive practices for two of the top ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Antitrust news with respect to Alphabet’s ad search business and Visa’s debit card business is nothing surprising, but it speaks to the positives and dominance behind their business models, something we like quite a bit. Any outcome of an antitrust lawsuit is uncertain and could result in a settlement and potential other action, including divestitures.
Sep 27, 2024
Costco’s Shares Remain Pricey
Image Source: Costco. We liked Costco’s fiscal 2024 fourth quarter performance, despite the slight miss on the top line. Based on its adjusted comp performance in the period, we think Costco is gaining share against other big box retailers, too. The only problem with Costco, however, at the moment is its valuation, which remains elevated, with shares trading at 45-50 times next year’s earnings. Costco is a great company, but our fair value estimate is substantially below its share price, meaning we won’t be interested in shares unless they drop significantly.
Sep 27, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of September 27
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Sep 26, 2024
An Important Measure of Leverage for Dividend-Growth and Income-Oriented Shareholders, One That Is Dividend-Adjusted
As more and more investors rely on company dividends for income, dividends, in our view, have become more debt-like commitments in nature, especially from the perspective of dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders. Years ago, we rolled out a measure of financial leverage that considers both the company’s debt and the present value of its future expected cash dividend obligations, which, in the eyes of die-hard dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders, may be implicitly assumed to be debt-like commitments in substance. We think this leverage ratio can be used in conjunction with the Dividend Cushion ratio to gain additional insight into the dividend-paying financial health of an entity.
Sep 23, 2024
GE Vernova Is a Great Clean Energy Idea
Image: GE Vernova has performed well since it was spun out of GE. GE Vernova is one of our favorite clean energy ideas, and its financials speak to continued strength. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $243 per share.
Sep 20, 2024
Incentives Pressuring Lennar’s Homebuilding Gross Margin
Image: Lennar’s shares have done quite well the past several years. For the fiscal fourth quarter of 2024, Lennar expects new orders in the range of 19,000-19,300, deliveries of 22,500-23,000 with an average sales price of about $425,000. Lennar ended the fiscal third quarter with $4.04 billion of cash and cash equivalents and $2.26 billion in senior notes and other debts payable, net, good for a nice net cash position on the balance sheet. Though the company’s gross margin guidance for its fiscal fourth quarter came up short, with expectations of it being flat with the fiscal third quarter (22.5% versus consensus of 24.3%), the backdrop for the housing market remains strong and may grow stronger as the Fed engages in a rate-cutting cycle.
Sep 20, 2024
FedEx Reduces Fiscal 2025 Outlook
Image: FedEx’s shares have bounced back from the October 2022 lows, but its fiscal 2025 outlook disappointed the Street. FedEx’s revised outlook left a lot to be desired. The company now expects fiscal 2025 revenue growth to be in the low single digits, compared to a previous expectation of low-to-mid single digits. Earnings per diluted share before the mark-to-market retirement plans accounting adjustments is now expected in the range of $17.90-$18.90 versus a prior forecast of $18.25-$20.25 per share. Also excluding costs related to business optimization initiatives, fiscal 2025 earnings per share is targeted in the range of $20.00-$21.00 per share compared to its prior forecast of $20.00-$22.00 per share, the midpoint below consensus of $20.93 per share. Shares yield 1.8%.
Sep 20, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of September 20
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Sep 19, 2024
Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios.
Sep 16, 2024
Korn Ferry’s Margin Performance Impressive in Fiscal First Quarter
Image: Korn Ferry’s shares have bounced nicely since its bottom in late 2023. Looking to the second quarter of fiscal 2025, Korn Ferry's fee revenue is expected in the range of $655-$685 million, while adjusted diluted earnings per share is expected to be between $1.14-$1.26. Though Korn Ferry faced pressure in Professional Search and RPO during its fiscal first quarter, we liked the improvement in Executive Search fee revenue, as well as its margin expansion, which was material in the period. Our fair value estimate for Korn Ferry stands at $78 per share. Shares yield 2.1%.


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