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Feb 2, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 2
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Feb 2, 2024
Big Cap Tech and Large Cap Growth Continue to Lead Market Higher
Image Source: Marco Pakoeningrat. We continue to like the areas of big cap tech and large cap growth as the top firms in these areas have strong cash-based sources of intrinsic value: net cash on the balance sheet and strong expected future free cash flow generation. After the close February 1, the market received the quarterly earnings reports from Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Apple, and we were pleased by the trio’s performance during the calendar fourth quarter. We maintain our long-held view that big cap tech and large cap growth will continue to lead the market higher, and we continue to overweight these areas in the newsletter portfolios. Jan 31, 2024
Alphabet, Microsoft Remain Cash-Rich, Secular Growth Powerhouses
Image Source: Shawn Carpenter. All eyes were on Alphabet and Microsoft after the bell January 30. We include both Alphabet and Microsoft in the newsletter portfolios due to their tremendous cash-based sources of intrinsic value: net cash on the balance sheet and free cash flow generation. It would take a monumental shift in the trajectory of these fantastic businesses for us to ever consider removing them from the newsletter portfolios, and we’re reiterating our favorable long-term view on both following their respective calendar fourth-quarter reports. Jan 28, 2024
What Causes Fair Value Estimates to Change?
Image: A screenshot of the discounted cash-flow learning tool for individual investors. So you noticed a fair value estimate changed, and you weren’t sure why? This article is for you. Jan 28, 2024
Energy Transfer Making a Comeback, Shares Yield ~8.7%
Image: Energy Transfer is working its way back after a long stretch of underperformance. On January 25, Energy Transfer raised its dividend modestly, by 0.8%, to $0.315 per share on a quarterly basis, and while Energy Transfer still has a massive net debt position to the tune of ~$47.6 billion, the firm’s traditional free cash flow of the payout suggests sustainability, absent any exogenous shocks. Standard & Poor’s recently upgraded its unsecured debt rating to BBB with a Stable outlook, and the firm’s capital spending guidance for 2023 was recently lowered, further helping free cash flow. Energy Transfer is staging a comeback, and for risk-seeking income investors, its ~8.7% dividend yield is worth a look. Jan 28, 2024
14%+ Yielding AGNC Investment May Be Worth a Trade
Image: AGNC Investment has managed to level out its dividend payments following a few years of dividend cuts. We’ve never been fans of the mortgage REIT arena, but some stabilization in the marketplace is likely to be expected, allowing a window for investors to generate what could be a very nice dividend yield on an otherwise very risky, leveraged area. As of the end of last year, AGNC Investment Corp. ended the year with $8.70 in tangible net book value, which increased 7.7% from September. Though the stock trades at a slight premium to its tangible net book value at the time of this writing, management’s positive commentary indicates to us that tangible book value may be poised to rise nicely given a more sanguine backdrop. AGNC Investment Corp. is not for long-term investors, but with its 14%+ dividend yield, the stock could make for a very nice high yield dividend income trade, in our view. Jan 28, 2024
Earnings Roundup: V, INTC, HUM, PYPL
Image: Visa’s operating margins are phenomenal. Image Source: Visa. Visa's first-quarter fiscal 2024 results were solid, and the firm noted that consumer spending remains resilient, paving the way for what we think will be a strong year. Intel's outlook for 2024 left a lot to be desired, and its balance sheet coupled with free cash flow burn should give more conservative investors pause. Humana's earnings outlook for 2024 spoke of considerable cost pressures, and we think this is yet another data point that the near term will be difficult for many health insurers as pent-up demand for procedures delayed during the pandemic begin to materialize. PayPal's stock remains in the dog house, and while its recently-announced innovations are great, consumer sentiment remains poor on the name. Jan 26, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 26
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Jan 25, 2024
Earnings Roundup: TSLA, NEE, IBM, CMCSA, NOW
Image: The Model Y was the best-selling vehicle globally in 2023. Image Source: Tesla. Tesla missed fourth-quarter results, and while the firm continues to generate robust free cash flow with a solid net cash position, uncertainty surrounding the name looms. NextEra makes the cut for ESG investors, and its earnings outlook for the next few years remains robust, even if its dividend growth may slow. IBM is back in growth mode, and the firm is looking to capitalize on watsonx and generative AI. Comcast has a lot of things going for it, and the firm's robust free cash flow generation suggests that future dividend growth will be robust, despite its lofty net debt position. ServiceNow continues to deliver for investors, and it continues to grow at a robust pace. Jan 24, 2024
Earnings Roundup: NFLX, ASML, T, ABT
Image: Netflix’s substantially improved free cash flow has made it a clear winner in the streaming wars. Image Source: Netflix. Netflix has won the streaming wars and continues to throw off material free cash flow as it lands incremental deals, the latest for WWE Raw. ASML is one of the most prolific innovators in the semiconductor industry, and its quarterly net bookings in the fourth quarter reveal an exciting future, even as revenue is forecast to be flat in 2024. AT&T's earnings outlook for 2024 disappointed, and rising capital spending will pressure free cash flow in 2024. Dividend King Abbott Labs continues to drive strong organic growth rates, exclusive of COVID-19 related weakness, and we expect years of future dividend growth at the company.
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