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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Nov 17, 2020
With Net Debt and Trading at 40x 2021 Earnings, Mettler-Toledo Is Too Pricey
Image Source: Mettler-Toledo. As of this writing, shares of MTD are trading at ~$1,190, which is well above the top end of our updated fair value estimate range, which sits at ~$1,040 per share. Though we like Mettler-Toledo’s business, competitive advantages and outlook, we think investors have gotten way ahead of themselves. The firm exited September 2020 with a net debt load (inclusive of short-term debt) of ~$1.1 billion, and the stock is trading at more than 42x 2021 expected earnings per share! We may have been a bit conservative with our prior fair value estimate, but Mettler-Toledo seems very overvalued, in our view, despite its fantastic business.
Nov 17, 2020
Growing Competitive Pressures, Leverage Drive Our Reduced Fair Value Estimate of CVS Health (Walgreens, Too)
The rivalries in the pharmacy space continue to intensify. Just this week, on November 17, CNBC reported that Amazon was launching Amazon Pharmacy in the US, which reportedly will include free delivery for Amazon Prime members. Shares of CVS Health sold off sharply after the news broke, as did shares of Walgreens Boots Alliance. Here, we would like to highlight how recognizing competitive threats (both existing and future) represents one of the qualitative overlays we use during the enterprise cash flow analysis process to model expected future financial performance of the company. These competitive dynamics had a large influence in our decision to reduce CVS Health’s fair value estimate. Note, we also reduced our fair value estimate of peer Walgreens Boots Alliance to $43 per share from $60 per share on November 9, too.
Nov 17, 2020
Chevron’s Forward-Looking Dividend Coverage is Becoming Stressed
Image Shown: Chevron Corporation reduced its capital expenditure expectations a couple of times this year, though that still has not enabled the firm to generate meaningful free cash flows given the various headwinds facing its businesses. Image Source: Chevron Corporation – November 2020 IR Presentation. On October 30, Chevron Corp reported third quarter earnings for 2020. As expected, it was a brutal report from Chevron. The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic decimated global energy demand and severely weakened raw energy resources pricing at a time when refining margins are quite weak. This double whammy saw Chevron post a $0.2 billion GAAP net loss in the third quarter of 2020 as its revenues tanked.
Nov 16, 2020
Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process
With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company's revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There's a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.
Nov 15, 2020
Exxon Mobil’s Weak Forward-Looking Dividend Coverage is Very Concerning
Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. Exxon Mobil Corp has contended with enormous headwinds so far in 2020 due to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, and that has put its dividend at risk. Over the past couple of years, the company has come nowhere close to generating enough free cash flow to cover its dividend obligations. Exxon Mobil’s forward-looking dividend coverage appears quite weak and the company is currently leaning heavily on debt markets to keep making good on those obligations. As of this writing, shares of XOM yield ~9.7% as investors are increasingly pricing in the chance for a meaningful payout cut.
Nov 15, 2020
Zillow Continues to Disrupt Real Estate Market
Image Source: Zillow Group Inc – May 2020 IR Presentation. Record low interest rates for mortgages in the US, largely a product of the Fed’s monetary stimulus measures (quantitative easing and near-zero interest rates), has gone a long way in stimulating demand for homes. According to the US Census Bureau, the national homeownership rate stood at 67.4% in the second quarter of 2020, up ~260 basis points from the same period the prior year. For reference, the domestic homeownership rate has been steadily climbing higher since 2015-2016 (when homeownership rates were in the low-60s% range) according to data provided by the US Census Bureau. Homeownership rates peaked in 2005-2006 at the high-60s% level before sliding significantly lower over the next decade due in part due to the ramifications of the Great Financial Crisis (‘GFC’) and the tightening of mortgage lending standards (in large part due to Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act that was passed in 2010).
Nov 13, 2020
Seeking High Success Rates on Individual Ideas? Consider the Exclusive Publication, a Valuentum Securities Offering.
We wanted to update our membership on the stats of ideas that we have highlighted in the Exclusive publication thus far for the past 52 months. For those that aren't aware of this publication, it is an add-on publication to the regular membership where we highlight three ideas in full thesis form each month -- an income idea, a capital appreciation idea, and a short idea consideration. For capital appreciation ideas, the success rates* have been 86.5% -- meaning that 86.5% of capital appreciation ideas that we've highlighted have advanced from their highlight price to their close or current price (including dividends). It's a pretty striking sight to see. For short idea considerations, the success rates have been 92.3% -- meaning that 92.3% of short idea considerations that we've highlighted have fallen from their highlight price to their close or current price (including dividends). This is even more remarkable than the capital appreciation success rates.
Nov 13, 2020
Our Fair Value Estimate for Cisco Remains Unchanged at $51 Per Share
Image Shown: Cisco Systems Inc continues to focus on rewarding shareholders by deploying its sizable free cash flows towards dividend payments and share repurchases. We are big fans of the tech giant. Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – First Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation.  On November 12, Cisco Systems reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended October 24, 2020) after the market close that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Though its GAAP revenues and GAAP net income fell by 9% and 26% year-over-year, respectively, the market was assuming the worst given the headwinds Cisco is facing due to the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. More importantly, Cisco’s fiscal second quarter guidance was decent, all things considered. We include shares of Cisco in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. As of this writing, shares of CSCO yield a nice ~3.7%, and our fair value estimate for Cisco still stands at $51 per share.
Nov 13, 2020
Shares of Disney are Now Surging Towards the Top End of Our Fair Value Estimate Range
Image Shown: Shares of The Walt Disney Company are steadily climbing towards the top end of our fair value estimate range, which sits at $153 per share of DIS. After the market closed on November 12, The Walt Disney Company reported its fourth quarter and full-year earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended October 3, 2020). Its latest results beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Though Disney’s financials took a big hit from the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, as expected (with an eye towards the enormous headwinds facing its ‘Parks, Experiences and Products’ business segment), the company’s outlook has improved considerably as its various video streaming services continue to outperform. We include shares of Disney in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio with a modest weighting. As the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $153 per share of Disney, there could be room for shares to run higher even after recent share price gains.
Nov 13, 2020
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week November 13
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.



The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.